There are slates throughout the day on both main DFS sites. For this article, we will examine the early slate on both sites, as they align identically. If you play the 11:35 a.m. ET slate, you get eight games to choose from.
Sunday’s Top MLB DFS Picks & Player Props
Sunday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings (5/11)
- Even when Chris Sale was struggling earlier in the season, the strikeouts were still there. His 30.3% strikeout rate is still elite. His last two starts have been his best two starts of the season for scoring fantasy points. Today’s matchup is against the Pittsburgh Pirates, who have the eighth-worst OPS against left-handed pitchers.
- It’s tough to recommend Sandy Alcantara based on what he has done this season. He has far and away the worst ERA of his career at 8.42. The ERA estimators aren’t quite as pessimistic, but they are also higher than what we want to see. However, we know from his history what Alcantara is capable of. Today’s matchup against the White Sox and their league’s worst OPS against right-handed pitchers could be what he needs to start the turnaround.
- There wasn’t much fanfare when Chad Patrick made the Brewers out of spring training. However, that was probably a mistake as Patrick won the International League Pitcher of the Year award last season. He has been solid, if unspectacular, this season with a 3.08 ERA and a 20.8% strikeout rate. Today’s matchup is against Tampa Bay. They’re playing in a tiny park, but we are also starting to see humidity impacting that park and helping pitchers.
Suggested Lineup Stacks
Houston Astros Projected Lineup (5/11)
There are slates throughout the day on both main DFS sites. For this article, we will examine the early slate on both sites, as they align identically. If you play the 11:35 a.m. ET slate, you get eight games to choose from.
Sunday’s Top MLB DFS Picks & Player Props
Sunday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings (5/11)
- Even when Chris Sale was struggling earlier in the season, the strikeouts were still there. His 30.3% strikeout rate is still elite. His last two starts have been his best two starts of the season for scoring fantasy points. Today’s matchup is against the Pittsburgh Pirates, who have the eighth-worst OPS against left-handed pitchers.
- It’s tough to recommend Sandy Alcantara based on what he has done this season. He has far and away the worst ERA of his career at 8.42. The ERA estimators aren’t quite as pessimistic, but they are also higher than what we want to see. However, we know from his history what Alcantara is capable of. Today’s matchup against the White Sox and their league’s worst OPS against right-handed pitchers could be what he needs to start the turnaround.
- There wasn’t much fanfare when Chad Patrick made the Brewers out of spring training. However, that was probably a mistake as Patrick won the International League Pitcher of the Year award last season. He has been solid, if unspectacular, this season with a 3.08 ERA and a 20.8% strikeout rate. Today’s matchup is against Tampa Bay. They’re playing in a tiny park, but we are also starting to see humidity impacting that park and helping pitchers.
Suggested Lineup Stacks
Houston Astros Projected Lineup (5/11)
| POS |
PLAYER |
DraftKings Salary |
FanDuel Salary |
| SS |
Jeremy Pena |
$3,900 |
$3,100 |
| OF/2B (FD) |
Jose Altuve |
$4,400 |
$3,100 |
| 3B |
Isaac Paredes |
$3,700 |
$3,000 |
| 1B |
Christian Walker |
$3,500 |
$2,900 |
| C |
Yainer Diaz |
$3,300 |
$2,700 |
| OF/1B (FD) |
Zach Dezenzo |
$2,800 |
$2,600 |
| OF |
Jake Meyers |
$3,900 |
$2,700 |
| 2B |
Brendan Rodgers |
$2,700 |
$2,600 |
| OF |
Cam Smith |
$2,800 |
$2,600 |
- After a slow start to the season against left-handed pitchers, the Houston Astros have dialed in recently. If you look back at the last two weeks, the Astros are seventh against left-handed pitchers in OPS at .720. Today’s matchup is against left-handed pitcher Andrew Abbott.
- Abbott has gotten off to a good start this season with far and away a career-best in strikeout rate at 31.6%. He is also only getting ground balls at a 25% clip, which would be a career low. That makes home runs not just possible, but likely against him.
- With Yordan Alvarez shelved with an injury, every batter in the Houston Astros’ current projected lineup is right-handed, so that is a good starting point for success. A good stack starting point is Yainer Diaz as your catcher. He has a .952 OPS against left-handed pitchers this season.
- Jake Meyers has been hitting the ball hard all season with a 42.4% hard-hit rate. The issue has been he has put too many balls on the ground. Perhaps Abbott’s fly ball tendencies can help him to right that ship.
- Cam Smith has a very short major league history. So far, he has been better against left-handed pitchers than right-handed pitchers. Two of his three home runs have come against left-handed pitchers, which is why he has a 1.093 OPS against them.
Boston Red Sox Projected Lineup (5/11)
| POS |
PLAYER |
DraftKings Salary |
FanDuel Salary |
| OF |
Jarren Duran |
$5,100 |
$3,600 |
| 3B |
Rafael Devers |
$4,700 |
$3,600 |
| 2B (DK)/3B |
Alex Bregman |
$5,300 |
$4,000 |
| 2B/OF (FD) |
Kristian Campbell |
$4,400 |
$3,100 |
| OF |
Wilyer Abreu |
$4,900 |
$3,500 |
| SS |
Trevor Story |
$4,000 |
$3,100 |
| 1B/3B/2B (FD) |
Abraham Toro |
$2,300 |
$2,100 |
| C |
Carlos Narvaez |
$3,500 |
$2,500 |
| OF/2B/SS (FD) |
Ceddanne Rafaela |
$3,200 |
$2,800 |
- The Boston Red Sox are being opposed by Seth Lugo today. Lugo has dialed in the last two seasons as a starting pitcher with the Kansas City Royals. However, one team that he has continued to struggle against is the Red Sox. In two starts against them last season, he only lasted a combined 10.1 innings because he gave up 16 hits and nine earned runs.
- Any discount you can get on Rafael Devers, you should take advantage of. He has struggled a bit with strikeouts this season, but when he makes contact, it is still sublime. He is in the top five percentiles in average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
- Alex Bregman is the most expensive batter on the Red Sox, but with good reason. His average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard hit rates are not quite as impressive as Devers, but they are solid in their own right, and he is making more contact. Of all the hitters on the slate, only Bobby Witt Jr. is averaging more points per game than Bregman. Yet, Bregman is still only the sixth-most expensive batter.
- If you are looking to save some money but still get exposure to the Red Sox, look at Ceddanne Rafaela. He has multi-hit games in four of his last six games, with each of those games including at least one extra-base hit.
Core Studs
- Javier Baez was given an off day yesterday. Since the calendar turned to May, he is slashing .346/.370/.654 with two home runs.
- Riley Greene is always a much better option against right-handed pitchers. He has hit seven of his eight home runs against them this season. From an OPS perspective, he has an .813 OPS against right-handed pitchers and a .647 against left-handed pitchers.
- Jonathan Aranda’s salary has fallen below $4,000 on DraftKings for the first time since April 15th. He still has a .964 OPS on the season with a 99th percentile hard-hit rate.
Value Plays/Punts
- A key cog to any DFS lineup today is Salvador Perez. Perez is 16-for-37 in his career against Lucas Giolito. Those 16 hits include nine extra-base hits, including five home runs.
- Another batter who has an extensive history against their opposing starting pitcher is Willson Contreras. Contreras has a tough matchup against MacKenzie Gore, but he is 6-10 against him in his career with two doubles.
- Ty France continues to bat either third or fourth in the Twins’ lineup, which is a prime spot for counting stats. His 17 runs and 21 RBI show he is taking advantage of the spot.
Sunday’s Top 3 Underdog Player Props
Chris Sale missed this mark in his first four starts as he was pitching inefficiently. He has started to look more like the Cy Young award winner recently and has cleared this number in three of his last four games. Against left-handed pitchers, the Pittsburgh Pirates strike out 26.3% of the time, which is the fourth-highest mark in all of baseball.
Trent Grisham has batted either leadoff or second in the Yankees’ lineup in his last 12 starts. More at-bats towards the top of the lineup mean more opportunities for production. He is delivering as well. In those 12 starts, he has cleared this number in nine games.
Straight RBI pick’ems are typically not my preferred choice due to the flukiness of the RBI, but you can’t argue with what San Diego has done in their series at Coors Field. After scoring 13 runs in the first game of the series, they backed it up with 21 last night.
Jake Cronenworth was activated off the injured list (IL) just in time. He has settled back into the sixth spot in the lineup and has accumulated at least one RBI in both of his starts.
Subscribe: YouTube | Spotify | Apple Podcasts | iHeart | Castbox | Amazon Music | Podcast Addict | SoundCloud | TuneIn
