While the 2025 NFL regular season is still months away, now is the time to start preparing for redraft leagues. Many factors go into fantasy football players winning their redraft league every year. However, the top factor is arguably avoiding players that will bust or are overpriced.
Let’s look at six players who are overpriced draft values based on Sleeper ADP for redraft leagues.
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Overvalued Fantasy Football Players to Avoid on Sleeper
Jordan Love (GB) – ADP 103.9 | QB12
Last year, Love finished as the QB17, averaging 15.6 fantasy points per contest. More importantly, his touchdown production declined because of Josh Jacobs. After totaling 32 passing touchdowns and four rushing scores in 2023 without the star running back, Love had 25 passing touchdowns and one rushing score last season, while Jacobs had 16 offensive touchdowns. While the Packers drafted Matthew Golden, the team lacks an elite set of weapons. Caleb Williams, Dak Prescott, and Justin Fields have a later ADP than Love. Yet, I would draft them before him.
Isiah Pacheco (KC) – ADP 65.5 | RB22
Unfortunately, Pacheco has missed 25.5% of his career games, including nine contests last season. Furthermore, he posted career lows in half-point PPR fantasy points per game (7.3), yards per rushing attempt (3.7), and offensive touchdowns (one) last year. More importantly, Pacheco lost his starting role to Kareem Hunt after returning from a broken fibula. Meanwhile, the Chiefs added Elijah Mitchell and Brashard Smith to the backfield after re-signing Hunt. Between the crowded backfield and his injury history, fantasy players shouldn’t draft Pacheco as anything more than a mid-range RB3.
Tyrone Tracy Jr. (NYG) – ADP 73.2 | RB25
Many had Tracy as a sleeper candidate last season because of limited competition in the backfield. He finished his rookie year as the RB26, averaging 9.6 half-point PPR fantasy points per game despite playing on a dysfunctional offense. However, the Giants spent a fourth-round pick in the NFL Draft on Cam Skattebo after an outstanding 2024 season at Arizona State. While Tracy could remain the starter, he will be part of a split backfield. Therefore, the second-year pro shouldn’t get drafted ahead of Quinshon Judkins, TreVeyon Henderson, and D’Andre Swift.
Chris Olave (NO) – ADP 58.2 | WR26
Fantasy players will likely want to avoid most of New Orleans’ offense this season. Olave missed nine games last year with multiple concussions. Furthermore, he was the WR52 on a points-per-game basis among wide receivers with at least eight contests played, averaging 7.6 half-point PPR fantasy points per outing. More importantly, Olave had fewer total fantasy points than Rashid Shaheed (60.7 vs. 65.8) despite playing in two more games. Fantasy players shouldn’t draft Olave as anything more than a boom-or-bust WR4 unless the Saints significantly improve their quarterback situation.
George Pickens (DAL) – ADP 60.9 | WR29
Some have high hopes for Pickens after getting traded to the Cowboys. While he gets a quarterback upgrade, the veteran won’t see a high target volume because of CeeDee Lamb. More importantly, Pickens has flashed in his career but has never been a consistent contributor. He has averaged 0.31 half-point PPR fantasy points per route run for his career, posting a 0.35 or lower average every season (per Fantasy Points Data). Xavier Worthy and Tetairoa McMillan have a lower ADP than Pickens. Yet, both have more upside and safer floors.
T.J. Hockenson (MIN) – ADP 49.7 | TE4
Hockenson missed the first seven games last year, recovering from a torn ACL he suffered late in the 2023 season. While fantasy players should expect him to bounce back after a down year in 2024, the veteran is overvalued as the fourth tight end off the board and an early fifth-round pick. The star tight end will be the third option in Minnesota’s passing game behind Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. Fantasy players are better off waiting two rounds to draft Travis Kelce than taking Hockenson at his current ADP.
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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.
