Polarizing Fantasy Football QBs: Dak Prescott, Baker Mayfield, Justin Fields

When it comes to fantasy football, few topics spark more debate than the most polarizing players — those whose values vary wildly from one expert to another. These are the quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers and tight ends that divide rankings, dominate draft-day discussions and often determine whether you’re a contender or pretender.

In this article, we asked our collection of Featured Pros to weigh in on players at the quarterback position with a high standard deviation, meaning analysts are all over the board in how they rank them. Whether it’s a breakout candidate you should be targeting or a risky pick to fade, our experts share who they’re significantly higher or lower on and why. Let’s dive into the most hotly debated names ahead of the 2025 fantasy football season.

Polarizing Fantasy Football Players: Draft or Pass?

Who is one quarterback with a high standard deviation you are higher or lower on and why?

Dak Prescott (QB – DAL)

“I am higher than other experts on Dak Prescott. Since he came to the league, Prescott’s worst finish in a season where he played more than 12 games was QB14. Even in 2022, when he played just 12 games, he still finished as the fantasy QB18. This year he should be fully healthy and has an improved receiving corps as well, which tells me he’ll likely finish as the QB10 or better, as he has in five of the six seasons he played every game.”
– Trevor Land (FlurrySports)

“Dak Prescott’s expert consensus ranking (ECR) is sitting at QB15 right now, but his average draft position (ADP) is QB12. I am all aboard the Dak Prescott Express this season, but I can’t see pushing him up much beyond where he’s coming off the board in drafts here in June. While the passing game should be humming in Dallas, touchdowns can be elusive. And with Prescott running less than in years’ past, I’m unlikely to leave my 1-QB drafts with Prescott when I can get Drake Maye later, or take a swing on Matthew Stafford or Geno Smith for free.”
– Jeremy Shulman (Fantasy Football Universe)

“Dak Prescott (QB15 in ECR) will be a top-12 fantasy quarterback in 2025. My QB11, the Cowboys will need Prescott and his arm to stay in games this year, simple as that. Despite him not running anywhere near like he once did, a healthy Prescott is simply a really good quarterback for fantasy. The last two seasons Prescott has finished for Dallas, he recorded at least 4,440 passing yards and 36 touchdowns in both seasons (2021 and 2023), and he has the likes of CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens and Jake Ferguson, to help him along in 2025. Prescott is an awesome quarterback to have in single- and multiple-quarterback setups that can easily outperform his QB2 ranking in the ECR.”
– Ed Birdsall (Talking Points Sports)

Baker Mayfield (QB – TB)

“Baker Mayfield was excellent in 2024, finishing as the QB3 in total fantasy points. But that season turned up a huge 7.2% touchdown rate, one that’s bound to regress. We’ll also see how Chris Godwin looks coming off a serious leg injury.”
– Kevin English (Draft Sharks)

“It’s easy to see why Baker Mayfield is QB6 going into 2025. He followed up his QB10 performance in 2023 with a QB3 finish last year. He has wide receivers for days. However, he’s just as easy to fade. It took an insane touchdown rate and an outlier rushing season for Mayfield to average 21.5 fantasy points per game. If you’re going to draft a pocket passer, pick the one coming off a low touchdown-rate season who can be drafted later.”
– Seth Miller (Crossroads Fantasy Football)

Justin Fields (QB – NYJ)

“I am significantly higher on Justin Fields (6.8 standard deviation) than the consensus rankings (QB14). While the veteran is a below-average starting quarterback in the NFL, he is an underrated fantasy option due to his rushing abilities. The former Ohio State star averaged 18.9 fantasy points per game over the first six weeks of last season as the starter for the Pittsburgh Steelers. That average would have made him the QB8 on a points-per-game basis in 2024. More importantly, Fields was productive in his last year as the unquestioned starter, ranking as the QB9 on a points-per-game basis in 2023 among quarterbacks with at least nine games played.”
– Mike Fanelli (FantasyPros)

“In 2023, Justin Fields averaged nearly 22 points per game from Week 4 onward. In his six starts during the 2024 season, Fields was the QB6 overall and QB7 in points per game (19.1). He was fourth in fantasy points per dropback (0.62). The new Jets quarterback rushed for at least 27 rushing yards in five of his six starts (surpassing 50 rushing yards three times). The Jets’ new QB1 has similar fantasy upside to the elite quarterback tier thanks to his rushing ability. One that new head coach Aaron Glenn is all too familiar with during his tenure in Detroit as their defensive coordinator. Fields faced the Lions five times during his time with the Bears, rushing for 100+ yards in three of those contests. Glenn has already expressed a desire to utilize Fields’ legs, which should be of interest to fantasy football drafters.”
– Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros)

“Running quarterbacks are a cheat code for fantasy football (duh). When Justin Fields started 15 games for the Bears in 2022, he ranked as the QB6 in fantasy scoring even though he missed two games and had mediocre passing numbers (2,242 yards, 17 touchdown passes). He ran for 1,143 yards and eight touchdowns. Fields started the first six games of the season for the Steelers last season and was the QB6 in fantasy scoring over that span. He has his shortcomings as a passer, but Fields is going to deliver needle-moving rushing production, and he now has job security with the Jets. FantasyPros’ ECR has Fields as a high-end QB2, but he’ll be a QB1 this year, barring injury.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)