July is upon us, so it’s time to take another deep dive into RT Sports’ average draft position (ADP). Specifically, I’m looking to add to last month’s list of overpriced players in RT Sports drafts.
As always, the most helpful tool for finding mispriced players is FantasyPros’ expert consensus rankings (ECR), which I will be referring to early and often in this article. You know the drill, and you’re probably only here for that list of names to avoid, so let’s get right into it.
- Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- 2025 Fantasy Football Expert Rankings
- Fantasy Football ADP
- Fantasy Football Trade Tools
Overvalued Fantasy Football Players to Avoid on RT Sports
Jaydon Blue (RB – DAL) | RT Sports ADP: 106/ECR: 156
Looking at both trends and individual players, it’s clear RT Sports drafters value two things more than the expert consensus: Upside and running backs. To a certain extent, I agree. Upside wins championships, and running back is the most scarce position in any classic fantasy league. But drafting Jaydon Blue — a fifth-round rookie who barely eclipsed 1,000 rushing yards total in his three years at Texas — in the ninth round is taking things multiple steps too far.
Let’s look at the positives first. Blue is by far the most exciting player in a backfield comprised of him, Javonte Williams and Miles Sanders. The 21-year-old is a capable pass-catcher and ran an impressive 4.43 40-yard dash at the NFL Scouting Combine. Williams and Sanders, meanwhile, are, at best, replacement-level NFL backs at this stage in their careers.
There’s a realistic world where Blue is the team’s most explosive running back and beats out the veteran duo for the lead role in this backfield, including a healthy dose of receiving work. If Dallas’ offense returns to form with a healthy Dak Prescott, he could be a legitimate league winner.
But if we step back to reality for a second, Blue is a Day 3 rookie who wasn’t even a particularly impressive prospect. He ranked 50th out of 79 qualified FBS backs in this class in Pro Football Focus (PFF) rush grade in 2024, and not a single one of the 29 backs behind him was selected in the NFL Draft. He weighed in at just 196 pounds at the combine, which both makes his 40-time less impressive and means he is incredibly unlikely to see consistent goal-line or short-yardage work.
Yes, Blue could be the next Bucky Irving, but it’s much more likely he is the next Kimani Vidal (who was arguably a better prospect than Blue, for the record). Even if he does carve out a role, it’s overwhelmingly likely to be as a Justice Hill-esque change of pace option.
Like all rookies, Blue’s status as a relatively unknown commodity means he comes with upside. His pass-catching ability and juicy situation only add to that upside. But the downside here is obvious. Even taking into account RT Sports’ insane running back market, he’s not worth anywhere near a ninth-round pick. That’s not dart throw territory; that’s a range where you should be getting a player who you can expect to legitimately contribute to your team. Blue’s a fun player to dream about, but he’s not that.
Deebo Samuel (WR – WAS) | RT Sports ADP: 81/ECR: 101
In a draft board filled with incredible wide receiver values, Deebo Samuel being drafted 20 picks before his ECR sticks out like a sore thumb. We can see how much RT Sports drafters are chasing the former 49ers receiver up boards by looking at his positional rankings. Samuel is the WR44 in ECR; on RT Sports, he’s the WR35.
Just like with Blue, it’s easy to see the upside with Samuel. We can make plenty of excuses for his lackluster 2024 season, from injuries to pneumonia. If we accept that last year was a fluke, Samuel’s unique yards after the catch (YAC) abilities should still be intact at age 29. And he is joining an ascending offense with a young star quarterback in Jayden Daniels and a perfect coordinator for his skill set in Kliff Kingsbury. While it feels like ages ago, we’re still only a few years removed from Samuel finishing as the WR3 overall in PPR formats. It’s certainly possible he could provide a very usable season in his first year as a Commander.
On the other hand, things change fast in the NFL. With his unique skill set and usage, Samuel might age more like a running back than a traditional receiver. That makes his age more concerning, especially once we consider that his efficiency has been well below-average in two of the last three years. As much as Kingsbury’s offense seems like a good fit, it’s hard to argue that any offensive coordinator could represent an improvement over how Kyle Shanahan was able to use Samuel in San Francisco. The fact that Shanahan and Co. were so willing to move on from the former cornerstone of their offense isn’t a great sign.
In Washington, Samuel’s ceiling will likely be capped by the presence of Terry McLaurin. And we saw last year that his floor is an essentially unusable fantasy player. He’s not a terrible mid-round pick as a WR3 or a WR4. But taking him ahead of Jaylen Waddle, the next receiver up in RT Sports’ ADP, is a terrible idea. Players like Jordan Addison and even Samuel’s former teammate Jauan Jennings are also clearly better bets with lower ADPs. If you want to take a bet on an aging, formerly elite wideout on a new team with a sophomore quarterback, just take Stefon Diggs 16 picks later.
Nick Chubb (RB – HOU) | RT Sports ADP: 129/ECR: 188
I missed one thing in my earlier list of things that RT Sports drafters love: Players who were great a few years ago. Cooper Kupp and the aforementioned Samuel are examples of this trend, but there is no clearer example than new Texans back Nick Chubb. The 59-pick gap between his ECR and ADP is the largest of any player in the top 150, even beating out Blue.
In a way, this love for Chubb (and all formerly elite players) is another expression of RT Sports drafters’ desire for upside. If the four-time Pro Bowler manages to rediscover his old magic, he could easily unseat Joe Mixon en route to a league-winning RB1 finish on this Texans offense. Unfortunately, that’s much easier said than done.
Chubb tore his MCL and ACL in 2023. He didn’t return until Week 7 of the 2024 season and was immediately one of the worst running backs in the entire league. That’s not an exaggeration: He ranked 47th out of 50 qualified running backs in PFF rush grade. If you’re not a believer in PFF grades, simply pick any other running back efficiency metric; I can sadly guarantee that Chubb will rank at or near the bottom of the league.
To make matters worse, Chubb’s 2024 season ended with another injury, as he broke his foot in Week 15. If we’re being optimistic, a broken foot is a less major injury than a torn ACL and MCL. Maybe Chubb can be more efficient another year removed from his more significant injury, especially now that he is free from the Browns’ offense. Unfortunately, given his lack of pass-catching ability, Chubb always relied on truly freakish rushing efficiency to be a fantasy star. Especially with the capable Mixon already secured as the Texans’ No. 1 RB, the 29-year-old will have to return to elite efficiency if he wants to carve out a fantasy-viable role in 2025. Given that he was an outlier in the wrong direction last season, this seems exceedingly unlikely.
With all that said, Chubb isn’t completely undraftable. A return to form may not be on the cards, but he only has to beat out Dameon Pierce to be the handcuff behind Mixon in this offense. How much value he would generate even if Mixon missed time will depend on whether the Texans’ offense can rebound (again, it’s tough to be a non-pass-catching back on a full PPR site). But the answer is more than zero, so he’s a viable pick as a handcuff.
Unfortunately, Chubb’s ADP isn’t in the pure handcuff range. Even with how much RT Sports drafters love running backs, elite handcuffs like Tyler Allgeier and Jaylen Wright are going multiple rounds later. Chubb is being drafted like he is likely to have standalone value. That’s not a thesis I can get behind unless we start getting incredibly positive “he’s back” buzz out of training camp.
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Ted Chmyz is a fantasy football contributor for FantasyPros.com. Find him on Twitter and Bluesky @Tchmyz for more fantasy content or to ask questions.
