4 Busts to Avoid (2025 Fantasy Football)

I have already shared a list of players to target in each of the first seven rounds. In this article, I’m going to do the opposite, recommending potential busts to avoid in each of the first few rounds of fantasy football drafts.

Early-Round Busts to Avoid in Fantasy Football Drafts

Avoiding players this early in the fantasy football offseason is a double-edged sword. Deciding who to avoid can be very valuable, as opinions are marginally influenced by coach speak and camp highlights. On the flip side, as the season nears, it’s hard not to be influenced by a flashy play without pads.

Either way, all opinions at this point need to be re-evaluated when new information arises. At some point, if the coach’s hype is consistent enough, or a player is making a noticeable play every day in camp, it’s time to start reconsidering labelling them as a fantasy football player to avoid at their average draft position (ADP).

Saquon Barkley (RB – PHI) | ADP: 2 (RB1)

This is a terrifying selection. Would anyone be surprised if Saquon Barkley rushes for another 2,000-yard season and scores 15+ touchdowns? Probably not. This Eagles team has primed itself for another Super Bowl run, with the same incredible stability and consistency that led them to last year’s title.

So why am I avoiding Barkley? Joe Pisapia is often known for his personality and iconic hairstyle. He is also a colleague of mine at FantasyPros and does great fantasy work year-round. Pisapia did the groundwork and found that backs who receive over 400 rush attempts see a steep decline in the following season.

Of the 10 backs who received 400+ carries in a season since 2000, none finished within the top 15 the following year. It’s never fun to predict injury for any player, especially one as talented as Barkley. However, Barkley finished last season with 434 rushing attempts (including the playoffs). With the aforementioned track record of backs with 400+ attempts, it would be difficult not to consider the downside.

Saquon Barkley (PHI) had 436 carries last season…

DeMarco Murray ‘14 436 RB2, next year RB15
Eddie George ‘00 431 RB3 ➡️ RB21
Shaun Alexander ’05 430 RB1 ➡️ RB30
Larry Johnson ’06 429 RB3 ➡️RB40
Jamal Lewis ‘00 412 RB15 ➡️ DNP*
Corey Dillon ’04 410 RB7 ➡️ RB18
contd….

— Joe Pisapia (@JoePisapia17) June 11, 2025

Thankfully, Barkley is a one-in-a-million player. Much like Derrick Henry, if there were ever a player to buck the trend, it’s probably him.

My reason for avoiding Barkley is not specifically a result of injury risk. Although it is a large portion, I also don’t view the next back listed to see a significant decrease in fantasy production. Over each of their last five games of the regular season, Bijan Robinson averaged five more fantasy points per game than Barkley. Much like the increasing excitement for Drake London, Robinson exploded with Michael Penix Jr. under center. In the three games with Penix, Robinson averaged 22.3 carries, 118 rushing yards, four targets and two rushing touchdowns per game.

Pairing that production with the potential usage risk for Barkley, it’s an easy decision in my opinion. If I’m lucky enough to be picking at the top of my draft, give me Robinson over Barkley.

Jonathan Taylor (RB – IND) | ADP: 20 (RB8)

Here are a few backs who had more receptions than Jonathan Taylor last season: Miles Sanders, Zack Moss, Derrick Henry, Kyle Juszczyk and Dare Ogunbowale. On that list are two backs that played less than two-thirds of the season (Moss: eight games; Sanders: 11 games) and a fullback… a gosh darn fullback.

Thankfully, Taylor’s eight games with 100+ rushing yards made his receiving work irrelevant. Why is he on this list? First, backs without any receiving production have a limited ceiling. Unless you are Henry or Barkley, it’s going to be hard for a back like Taylor to return RB8 value. Even though last season he finished as the RB9 while missing three games (which is very impressive), the numbers are skewed.

Going into Week 15, Taylor was the RB27 in points per game. Thankfully, he exploded over the final three games, saving his fantasy value. If he didn’t rush for 520 yards and six touchdowns over three games, we’d be looking at him very differently. That stretch of games contributed to 55% of his rushing touchdowns and 36% of his total rushing yards. That’s wild.

Taking out his three best games is a little unfair. Even if those three games were outliers last season, not many backs can do that. Taylor makes this list not necessarily because he will have a bad year, but because he is that different than backs going after him. For example, Josh Jacobs, Kyren Williams and Chase Brown could have very similar, if not more productive, seasons. At cost, Taylor makes my avoid list.

Garrett Wilson (WR – NYJ) | ADP: 26 (WR13)

Every few years, we have talented receivers waiting to reach their potential. Two names that come to mind are DJ Moore and Terry McLaurin. Thankfully, Jayden Daniels unlocked McLaurin last season, and Moore had a huge season with Justin Fields in the past. Ironically, that’s one of the reasons I am fading Wilson.

Fields is now the starting quarterback for the Jets. It’s wild that a quarterback who has been traded for a sixth-round pick continues to have starting chances in the NFL. Either way, we now have the Ohio State connection back in business in New York. Since we all believe Wilson is one of the premier talents at the position, I want to focus on Fields.

Over his four-year career, Fields has averaged an abysmal 153 passing yards and 0.9 passing touchdowns per game. His highest average passing yards per game production came in Moore’s breakout season — 197 yards per game. This can’t be a coincidence. If Fields can replicate his career high, there is a path for Wilson to emerge for fantasy.

Unfortunately, out of all of Feilds’ teams in the past, this Jets team is built to run the ball and rely heavily on its defense. The addition of former Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn made it clear this will be a gritty, defensive team in 2025. In 2023, when Fields set a career high in passing yards per game, the Bears were in the bottom third in points allowed. If the Jets find themselves in the bottom third of team defenses, something will have gone wrong.

In the end, if Fields continues his career average in passing yards and touchdowns, it’s going to be tough sledding for Wilson. If that’s the case, to return the WR13 value, Wilson will likely need to haul in 40% of Fields’ total passing yards and touchdowns. That’s a big ask for any receiver-quarterback duo.

Jameson Williams (WR – DET) | ADP: 43 (WR27)

Unlike previous players, where my beliefs are consistent across all formats, Jameson Williams is specifically a “season-long league” avoider. In best ball, he has enough upside each week to be worth his average draft position. However, if you are relying on him every week, he will hurt you more often than not.

In his breakout season last year, Williams had four games in the top 10 at the position and seven games in the top 24. Outside of those finishes, he ranged anywhere from WR28 to WR104 in his full games played. These big games and dud performances were scattered across the season. Therefore, if you had to set your lineup and predict his big games, you were playing with fire. A few names going after him who I prefer their consistency in season-long formats are DeVonta Smith, Zay Flowers and Calvin Ridley.

I also haven’t mentioned the departure of Ben Johnson. Although I believe his impact is being exaggerated, it is unlikely that this offense will be able to maintain the same production as last year. With the offense potentially taking a small step back and Williams’ volatile production, I’ll let someone else ride that rollercoaster.