Not every early-round pick lives up to the hype. In fact, some of the biggest names in fantasy football end up being major disappointments based on where they’re drafted. To help you avoid costly mistakes in your 2025 fantasy football drafts, we’ve gathered insights from our collection of Featured Pros to spotlight the worst value picks by current ADP. Whether it’s due to injury risk, team situation, or inflated expectations, these players carry more downside than their draft position suggests. Before you’re on the clock, make sure you know which names to think twice about.
Worst Fantasy Football Draft Picks: Quarterbacks
Who is the worst value pick at QB based on his current ADP and why?
Patrick Mahomes (QB – KC): QB6, ADP 54
“Patrick Mahomes at QB6 is a little rich, considering what he has done over the last two years, and there’s little reason to expect better production in 2025. Patrick Mahomes hasn’t been a top-six fantasy quarterback in fantasy points per game since 2022. Over the past two seasons, his passing prowess has suffered with 6.8 and 7.0 yards per attempt and back-to-back finishes with less than 30 passing touchdowns and a 4.5% passing touchdown rate. His rushing production is a nice added value bump at this point that we should expect. Mahomes has finished inside the top 12 quarterbacks in rushing yards in each of the past five seasons (12th, 7th, 9th, 6th, 10th). We know that Kansas City will pass a ton. That is a given at this point, as they have ranked in the top three in neutral passing rate in each of the last four seasons. The worry for Mahomes has been that he has quietly struggled as a passer over the last two seasons. Last year, among 40 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranked 29th in highly accurate throw rate and 19th in CPOE. His shortcomings as a deep passer have plagued him for the last two seasons, as he has been in the bottom ten in CPOE and in the top ten in off-target rate with deep passes (per Fantasy Points Data). Mahomes will have the volume and rushing equity to finish as a QB1 again this year, but unless his passing skills return to a top-shelf level, it’s tough to consider him as anything more than a low-end QB1.”
– Derek Brown (FantasyPros)
“It might be borderline sacrilegious to say, but Patrick Mahomes at 54 as QB6 seems like a prime way to get little to no value from the position. First things first: Who does he have to throw to? Travis Kelce looked slow last year. Xavier Worthy is a nice toy to have, but is he suddenly going to improve on his WR40 finish last season? Rashee Rice will be back post-injury, which brings with it the fear that he may not be the volume receiver he was. Mahomes has struggled as a passer in the previous two years, and while his rushing production may be enough to end as a QB1, I want nothing to do with him where he is currently being drafted.”
– Kelly Kirby (FantasyPros)
Baker Mayfield (QB – TB): QB7, ADP 57
“Baker Mayfield at QB7 seems a little rich for me. I get that he’s getting Chris Godwin back, and the team should dominate in an otherwise weak NFC South. However, going right after him are other quality players like Bo Nix, Kyler Murray, and Caleb Williams. I believe all three have a similar upside to Mayfield. I’m always a fan of grabbing the player at the bottom of the tier, not the top, and Mayfield is at the top of that tier right now.”
– Andrew Hall (FantasyPros)
“Baker Mayfield shouldn’t be coming off the board in the fifth round. Mayfield had 41 touchdown passes last year after never throwing even 30 TD passes in any other season. He ran for 378 yards last year after never having 200 rushing yards in any previous season. And he was way above his career norms in completion percentage (71.4%) and yards per pass attempt (7.9). Mayfield has lost Liam Coen as his playcaller, a year after losing Dave Canales as his playcaller. The return of WR Chris Godwin from an ankle injury and the drafting of WR Emeka would seem to bode well for Mayfield, but it’s worrisome that star left tackle Tristan Wirfs could potentially miss some early-season games with a knee injury. The price is just too steep for Mayfield, an obvious regression candidate.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)
“Anybody that expects Baker Mayfield to have a repeat of his 2024 season in 2025, please don’t. Mayfield set career outliers, let alone highs, in passing yards, yards per attempt, passing touchdowns, and rushing yards. Couple those outliers with Mayfield’s third offensive coordinator in three years, and those numbers will regress back to his relative mean. Selecting Mayfield at 57th overall, at the QB7, is way too steep a price for a player that won’t replicate his 2024 numbers in 2025.”
– Ed Birdsall (Talking Points Sports)
Bo Nix (QB – DEN): QB8, ADP 71
“I have concerns over Bo Nix. His rookie season was stellar, but the team took their first-round pick and used it on defense. They followed that pick-up in the second round with a running back. The Broncos will now have a chance to run the ball successfully compared to last year, with a team that doesn’t allow many points, leaving Nix in a danger zone as a fantasy-producing quarterback.”
– Joe Pepe (Beyond The Gridiron)
“Bo Nix – Bo knows baseball. Bo knows football. Bo knows basketball, too. Bo knows running. Bo knows fantasy football’s top 10 QBs in 2025? No. Nix is a good player, but inside the top 10 QBs is way too rich for Mark Ringo. Denver’s stout defense and Bo’s lack of draft pedigree from scouts give me pause. Even with offensive guru Sean Payton calling the plays, I’m going to pass on Bo and let someone else pay that expensive QB 8 ADP price tag. And when it comes to telling funny jokes/puns…….Ringo, you don’t know diddly!”
– Mark Ringo (Sleepers and Busts)
Jared Goff (QB – DET): QB 11, ADP 87
“Last year, Jared Goff had the best season of his career, finishing as the QB6, averaging 19.1 fantasy points per game. He set career highs in several categories, including completion rate (72.4%), passing touchdowns (37), and quarterback rating (111.8). Yet, fantasy players should temper expectations for the veteran quarterback this season. Detroit lost offensive coordinator Ben Johnson to the Chicago Bears and Pro Bowl center Frank Ragnow to retirement. More importantly, Goff is prime for touchdown regression. Last year, he posted a career-high 6.9% passing touchdown rate. By comparison, his previous career best was 5.9% while his career average is 4.8%. The veteran is overvalued as the QB11 in the ADP. Fantasy players should target Dak Prescott and Justin Fields with a later ADP over Goff.”
– Mike Fanelli (FantasyPros)
“Jared Goff as the QB11 off the board baffles me. Last season, he beat that QB11 price on a weekly basis in just 8 of his 17 starts. He threw a career-high 37 TD passes in 2024, which, considering the Lions led the NFL at 4.1 TDs per game, is due for regression. Only seven teams topped 3 TDs per game last year, and the Lions now have a new coordinator. I expect Goff to finish pretty in line with where he’s being picked, but if it doesn’t move the needle for your fantasy team, does it really matter?”
– Justin Frye (Pro Football Network)
“Don’t make the mistake of overpaying for a pocket passing quarterback. Jared Goff is overvalued as a low-end fantasy QB1 (QB11 ADP) with zero rushing to his profile. He lost offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, the Lions’ offensive line has lost key pieces, and the schedule is much tougher than it was in 2024. The Lions QB is coming off a career-high passing TD%, which is primed to regress in 2025. Hard pass in 1-QB formats. Draft a dual-threat QB later.”
– Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros)
“Jared Goff is currently going off the board as a top-12 Quarterback. This team no longer has Ben Johnson or Frank Ragnow. Last year, he was great, QB6 overall and QB7 in points per game on the back of 37 passing touchdowns. Goff’s first time with more than 30 passing touchdowns since 2018. He brings no rushing upside, and the floor can be low. Goff finished outside of the top-12 eight times in 2024, his best fantasy season.”
– David Heilman (Sports Gambling Podcast Network)
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