Draft season is all about finding value-and just as importantly, avoiding landmines. In this quick-hitting breakdown, FantasyPros’ Andrew Erickson shares five players he’s steering clear of based on cost, situation, and potential regression.
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Fantasy Football Bust Risks to Avoid
Baker Mayfield (QB – TB): Touchdown Regression Incoming
Mayfield’s career year in 2024 has fantasy managers chasing last season’s stats. He set career highs in rushing and posted a 7.2% touchdown rate-second best in the NFL. However, touchdown rates that high tend to come back to earth.
Erickson leans heavily on projection models when evaluating quarterbacks, and Mayfield’s median outlook mirrors guys like Kyler Murray and Brock Purdy, both of whom are available multiple rounds later. With Tristan Wirfs potentially missing time and a new OC in Tampa, Mayfield could stumble out of the gate. That’s a red flag for a mid-round QB with limited rushing upside.
“If you’re drafting Mayfield as the QB6 or QB7, you’re passing on breakout candidates and rushing threats with similar projections who cost less.”
TreVeyon Henderson (RB – NE): Too Much Hype, Too Many Questions
Rookie fever is real, but Henderson might be overdrafted based on perceived upside. Erickson, a Patriots fan himself, sees familiar red flags in Josh McDaniels’ history of using committee backfields. With Rhamondre Stevenson still in the mix, and Antonio Gibson lurking, Henderson’s path to a workhorse role feels thin.
Erickson also raised durability concerns. Henderson struggled to stay healthy at Ohio State when given heavy volume, and New England has one of the league’s worst offensive lines. If you’re drafting him as your RB2, you’re hoping for immediate usage that might not materialize.
“I’d rather wait and take RJ Harvey or Caleb Johnson, backs with more clarity and similar or better upside.”
DK Metcalf (WR – PIT): Trapped in an Arthur Smith Offense
Metcalf is a physical freak. He’s also entering one of the worst possible fantasy environments. Pairing a 40-year-old Aaron Rodgers with Arthur Smith’s historically conservative offense? Not ideal.
Smith’s offenses have consistently tanked WR1 production-from Drake London to Kyle Pitts to George Pickens. In fact, the only top-15 WR season from a Smith-coached team came from A.J. Brown in a career year for Ryan Tannehill. Metcalf hasn’t finished inside the top 15 in points per game in three seasons, and now enters a situation that could further limit his upside.
“Metcalf’s ADP assumes things click. History says they won’t.”
David Montgomery (RB – DET): The Discount That Isn’t
Montgomery was quietly productive in 2024, but his price tag doesn’t reflect the risk in 2025. Detroit loses OC Ben Johnson, and the expectation is that the offense, particularly the offensive line, takes a step back.
Montgomery’s fantasy value last year was buoyed by unexpected receiving volume and high touchdown production. If those regress, and if Gibbs truly takes on a larger role, Montgomery becomes a touchdown-dependent RB2 with capped upside. Yet, he’s being drafted almost exactly where he finished in 2024 (RB18), despite the new risks.
“You’re not getting a discount. You’re paying last year’s price for this year’s uncertainty.”
Tyreek Hill (WR – MIA): A Bet Not Worth the Cost
This is the boldest call and Erickson knows it. Hill’s still elite on paper, but he’s turning 31, coming off a disappointing finish, and is carrying red flags in both metrics and situation.
Even when healthy, Hill’s late-season output was underwhelming. He ranked 18th in fantasy points per game and saw a dramatic dip in YAC efficiency. ESPN’s WR model had him 93rd in that department. Add in questions around Tua’s health, offseason trade rumors, and Miami’s weird vibes overall, and it’s a lot to stomach for a first-round pick.
“I might have zero Tyreek Hill shares in 2025. And I’m okay with that.”
Each of these players comes with name recognition and past production, but that’s not what wins leagues. Drafting based on projection, value, and current context is how you stay ahead of your competition.
Looking for safer bets or breakout potential instead? Check out our Fantasy Football Draft Kit for expert targets, avoid lists, and full rankings breakdowns.
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