Some players may be in different situations, may be aging or even have issues behind the scenes that we are unaware of. For example, what in the world happened to Diontae Johnson last year? As a result, here are running backs who should have seasons that are closer to their average in 2025.
- Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- 2025 Fantasy Football Expert Rankings
- Fantasy Football ADP
- Fantasy Football Trade Tools
Fantasy Football Regression Candidates
James Cook (RB – BUF)
Any player who scored 18 touchdowns in a season is an instant red flag for regression. Even for fantasy superstars, an 18-touchdown season is very difficult to replicate. Although we wouldn’t be surprised if Saquon Barkley, Ja’Marr Chase or Bijan Robinson hit those numbers in 2025, it’s still unlikely. That’s because a lot of things have to work out for one player to be that dominant at finding pay dirt, and that’s exactly what happened to James Cook.
First, the team needs to have a very powerful offense. Thankfully, Buffalo is often one of the top teams, finishing second in the league last year with an average of 3.8 touchdowns per game. Even though Buffalo has improved their offensive weapons this offseason, that alone is a potential sign of team regression. Last year, the Bills, Ravens (3.8) and Lions (4.1) all averaged more touchdowns per game than any team since the 2020 Packers (4.1). Even if Josh Allen is an alias for Clark Kent, that number should come down.
Offense aside, Cook’s touchdown rate is unsustainable. Last season, Cook averaged a rushing touchdown on 7.7% of his rushing attempts. That’s wild. In comparison, Jahmyr Gibbs, who is an efficiency stud and was on the highest scoring offense in the league, averaged a touchdown on 6.4% of his attempts. That is a massive difference.
Add in the potential emergence of second-year players Ray Davis and Keon Coleman, as well as third-year player Dalton Kincaid, and it’s hard to see the touchdowns consolidating in Cook’s favour. Therefore, Cook’s RB8 finish in 2024 will be hard to replicate. Currently, going as the 14th running back off the board, according to average draft position (ADP), is not an unreasonable price, even with regression. However, if you had him last year and drafted him again, don’t expect the same production.
Josh Jacobs (RB – GB)
Unlike James Cook, Josh Jacobs’ regression is almost solely linked to the offensive environment. This is not to say that the Packers can’t replicate a top-eight performance in points scored; it’s more a statement on how they will get there.
It was a weird season for the Packers. In some ways, I think it was one of their more impressive seasons of recent memory. With all of the injuries that they were dealing with, having the kind of success they had is a true testament to Matt LaFleur being one of the best coaches in the league. Although there were many injuries, the most notable one was to Jordan Love.
In their season opener against the Eagles, Love sprained his MCL and missed the following two weeks. Even though he returned relatively quickly, it was clear he wasn’t 100%. As a result, LaFleur’s offense took on a new look. In his six years as a head coach, LaFleur had never had a team that was in the top 12 in rushing attempts.
That was, until last year, when they finished the season with the fifth-most attempts. Not only were they fifth in rushing attempts, but they had the third-fewest passing attempts, only behind the Eagles and the Ravens. As we know, with those two elite rushing teams, this was not a typical Packers season.
I hear you barking, big dog: “That’s because they brought in Josh Jacobs.” That’s a possibility for sure, as Jacobs showcased why he is still one of the best rushers in the league. However, LaFleur was also coaching the Packers with the electric duo of Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams, and was never in the same ballpark of rushing attempts.
Even if Jacobs was a potential determinant of the different offense, the drastic change was greater than just his ability. In the end, I am expecting a big season for Love (which I have already written about), and that may come at the expense of Jacobs.
Jacobs is currently going as the RB8 ahead of Jonathan Taylor, Chase Brown and Kyren Williams. Although I don’t have an issue selecting him ahead of those three, I would rather take a shot on the receivers in that range and hopefully draft a similar back in the following round.
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