MLB DFS Picks & Underdog Player Props: Saturday (7/5)

Hope you all enjoyed the Fourth of July festivities. Now it’s time to settle back in and play some DFS. On DraftKings, we’re looking at the early slate, which includes nine games beginning at 12:10 p.m. ET. FanDuel has two slates that are starting at that same time, but they include different games. One of the slates is an all-day slate, though, so we can compare every player on each site.

Saturday’s Top MLB DFS Picks & Player Props

Saturday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings (7/5)

MLB DFS Picks & Underdog Player Props: Saturday (7/5) | FantasyPros
PLAYER	DraftKings Salary	FanDuel Salary
Ranger Suarez	$9,700	$10,700
Taj Bradley	$7,700	$9,900
Chad Patrick	$9,200	$8,800

There are a lot of encouraging metrics that go along with Ranger Suarez’s emergence. He has become one of the best in the business at preventing hard contact against him, as he is in the 99th percentile in both average exit velocity and hard-hit rate. Today, he is scheduled to take on a Reds team that has only a .650 OPS against left-handed pitchers.
Chad Patrick’s seasonal strikeout rate is only 24.4%. However, it spiked to 30.8% in June, which was the seventh-best mark in baseball. He has a matchup with the Marlins, who have been average offensively this season.
I’m not a big fan of any of the cheapest options. Taj Bradley is a roll of the dice if you’re looking to win a big contest. Just look at his scoring log on FanDuel over June. He had three great starts with 55, 27 and 42 FanDuel points. In between those games, he had starts of -3, -8 and 7 points. The last time he faced the Twins, he went seven innings with two earned runs and struck out six. He’s extremely affordably priced on DraftKings.

Suggested Lineup Stacks

Boston Red Sox Projected Lineup (7/5)

POS	PLAYER	DraftKings Salary	FanDuel Salary
1B/2B/3B (FD)	Romy Gonzalez	$4,200	$3,100
OF	Roman Anthony	$4,000	$2,600
OF	Rob Refsnyder	$3,800	$2,700
C	Carlos Narvaez	$3,500	$2,800
SS	Trevor Story	$3,900	$3,300
OF	Jarren Duran	$4,700	$3,300
OF/2B/SS (FD)	Ceddanne Rafaela	$3,400	$2,900
3B	Nate Eaton	$2,000	$2,000
2B/SS (FD)	David Hamilton	$2,700	$2,300

The Boston Red Sox are going to be opposed by left-handed pitcher Mitchell Parker today. A good first month has kept Parker’s season line looking passable, but he has been quite poor since the start of May. He has an ERA of 6.00 over the last two months. Considering the Red Sox are fifth in wRC+ against left-handed pitching, it’s a good matchup to target.
The first Red Sox batter you should be looking at is leadoff batter Romy Gonzalez. He comes with an affordable price, multi-eligibility on FanDuel and a 1.074 OPS against left-handed pitching.
Carlos Narvaez is not the flashiest option at the catcher position, but similar to Gonzalez, he has consistently hit against left-handed pitching. He has a .957 OPS against left-handed pitching.
The third in the left-handed pounding trio of Red Sox is Rob Refsnyder. He rarely plays against right-handed pitchers, but has a .942 OPS against left-handed pitchers.

Toronto Blue Jays Projected Lineup (7/5)

POS	PLAYER	DraftKings Salary	FanDuel Salary
SS	Bo Bichette	$4,200	$2,900
OF	George Springer	$4,800	$3,600
1B	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	$5,300	$3,400
3B/OF	Addison Barger	$3,900	$3,100
C	Alejandro Kirk	$3,800	$2,900
OF	Nathan Lukes	$3,000	$2,600
3B/SS/2B/1B (FD)	Ernie Clement	$3,300	$2,800
2B	Andres Gimenez	$3,200	$2,800
1B/3B/2B (FD)	Will Wagner	$2,100	$2,300

When you allow as much contact as Jack Kochanowicz does, a blowup start is always possible. His K-BB% has fallen to 5.6%, which is second-worst among qualified starters in all of baseball. He has struggled against left-handed batters, with 13 of his 15 home runs allowed coming from the left side.
If we are looking at left-handed batters who could take advantage of Kochanowicz, we have to start with Addison Barger. He continues to have sublime hitting metrics, including top-10 percentile marks in hard-hit rate and average exit velocity. It has helped him to have seven extra-base hits in the last week with three home runs.
Barger is the only left-handed bat in the Blue Jays lineup that interests me, but others can take advantage of Kochanowicz. One of those options is to ride the hot hand with George Springer. He has four home runs over the last week, which has pushed his OPS to over .900 against right-handed pitchers.
Make sure that Bo Bichette is in the lineup. He recently missed nearly a week of action with knee pain. If he is in the lineup, he has not only been better against right-handed pitching, but he has also been substantially better in home games. He has a .926 OPS at home and only a .544 OPS on the road.

Core Studs

POS	PLAYER	DraftKings Salary	FanDuel Salary
OF	Seiya Suzuki	$5,200	$3,700
OF	Juan Soto	$5,800	$4,000
3B	Eugenio Suarez	$4,900	$3,400

Seiya Suzuki is facing left-handed pitcher Matthew Liberatore today. Suzuki has a 1.000 OPS against left-handed pitchers this season.
What a phenomenal June for Juan Soto. He had 11 home runs in the month, which helped him record a 1.196 OPS. While the matchup against Carlos Rodon is tough, he is such a fantastic hitter that he can deliver in any matchup.
Eugenio Suarez has gone 15-for-36 against Michael Wacha in his career. Five of those hits have been extra-base hits, including two home runs.

Value Plays/Punts

POS	PLAYER	DraftKings Salary	FanDuel Salary
OF/2B (FD)	Isaac Collins	$3,300	$2,700
OF	Matt Wallner	$3,400	$2,800
OF	Marcell Ozuna	$3,800	$3,100

There are 10 qualified batters with an OPS over 1.000 over the last 28 days. The only name on the last with a cheap enough price point to qualify as a value play is Isaac Collins. He has a 1.037 OPS in the last 28 days.
Matt Wallner is always a threat for home runs with the way he impacts the ball. Over the last month, he has a 45.8% hard-hit rate. He most recently hit a home run on Thursday.
It’s been a long time since Marcell Ozuna has been a value play. A miserable June, where he had an OPS of .550, pulled him down to these levels. While it’s not quite the top levels we’ve come to see from Ozuna, he still has a 49.3% hard-hit rate.

Saturday’s Top 3 Underdog Player Props

Luis Severino (SP – ATH): 3.5 Earned Runs Allowed — Highers

Playing at home has not been kind to Luis Severino. He has an ERA of 6.79 at home and 3.04 on the road. His opponent today is the San Francisco Giants.

Ha-Seong Kim (SS – TB): 0.5 Total Bases — Higher

Ha-Seong Kim made his season debut yesterday. He finished the game 1-for-3 with a stolen base. Unfortunately, he exited the game with a cramp in his leg, but indications are that it’s not that bad. If he is playing, 0.5 total bases is a low number for a player of his caliber.

George Springer (OF – TOR): 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI — Higher

The hot streak that George Springer is on was referenced above. He has multiple hits in his last games, with at least one run scored in each game. The matchup against Jack Kochanowicz won’t be the one to stop his streak.