No time of the year brings more aggressive fluctuations in average draft position (ADP) than during training camp. Injuries are now much more of an imminent issue than they were weeks ago. Hype, or lack of hype, is something to be considered at every pick. Over on FFPC (Fantasy Football Players Championship), these are the biggest risers and fallers in ADP for their single-quarterback best ball contest.
Fantasy Football Risers & Fallers
FFPC Risers
A few weeks ago, Jacory Croskey-Merritt was often not being drafted at all. However, ‘Bill,’ as he likes to be known, is becoming far better known in the draft rooms. With only veterans Brian Robinson Jr. and Austin Ekeler ahead of him, Croskey-Merritt has a clear chance to earn a role.
What that role will look like is up for debate with Robinson entrenched as the starter and Ekeler the clear pass-catcher, but Croskey-Merritt does have some juice, ranking 19th in yards after contact per attempt and 12th in elusive rating in 2023, per Pro Football Focus (PFF).
In 2024, Croskey-Merritt’s season suffered due to eligibility issues. Ultimately, that allowed the Commanders to pick him in the seventh round. A lot of seventh-round running backs are getting hyped up this year, but at this price, Croskey-Merritt is still worth our attention.
With Joe Mixon and Dameon Pierce banged up, and reports suggesting Nick Chubb is lacking burst, it’s no wonder that Woody Marks is starting to gain some attention. Marks was drafted as the 12th running back in the 2025 NFL Draft in the middle of round four.
DeMeco Ryans has spoken glowingly of Marks, saying they’ve put a lot on him and he’s handled it great. We want pass-catchers at the running back position, and Marks averaged over 50 receptions per year in college. Given the miserable state of the Texans’ offensive line, we should expect a lot of quick passes. Marks could benefit a lot from them.
The Jets seem committed to a running back by committee approach, and it seems likely that Braelon Allen will be getting plenty of touches in the ground game. This could mean that Breece Hall sees the more valuable touches in the receiving game. On an offense that could lead the league in rushing attempts, we can live with that.
One factor that might be going overlooked is that the Jets’ offensive line looks very good, and this offense could be more efficient on the ground than we’ve seen in recent years.
Another running back on the rise is Kyle Monangai of the Chicago Bears, who has a straightforward path to touches should either D’Andre Swift or Roschon Johnson fail to impress.
Johnson is banged up, and Swift rarely manages to keep the trust of a coaching staff throughout the season. Monangai, though, was taken deep into the seventh round with the 233rd overall pick. Getting overly expectant on him could be a mistake.
We knew it was likely Keenan Allen would sign before the season started, and we knew his price would likely rise when he did. Yet, here we are, and there will be some people regretting not getting more Allen shares before he signed.
Allen reunites with Justin Herbert in L.A. in what should be an efficient passing offense. Concerns about Ladd McConkey could be warranted, but Allen still earned targets at a high volume in Chicago last year despite DJ Moore‘s presence. We shouldn’t shy away from Allen because of McConkey.
This one coincides with the fall of Chris Godwin, who is down 23 spots as reports suggest he won’t be ready for the first few weeks of the season. Emeka Egbuka, for his part, has earned rave reviews throughout organized team activities (OTAs) and training camp, with Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans, in particular, showering him with praise.
Egbuka is the latest in a long line of exciting wide receiver prospects to arrive in the NFL from Ohio State. Even at this price, he could be a value.
In this rookie-heavy edition, Tory Horton comes in as another ADP riser, climbing up the ranks by 22.7 spots as the training camp hype was compounded with a touchdown in his opening preseason appearance. Reports suggest Horton has surpassed Marquez Valdes-Scantling, who played well for offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak, during their time with the Saints last year.
If Horton has been able to unseat Valdes-Scantling so quickly, it speaks volumes to a player that many liked coming out of Colorado, but who seemed he might not make an impact when he was drafted in the fifth round. The Seahawks do look to be focused on the run game, and Horton might struggle in managed formats. In best ball, though, we should be willing to take late-round shots on an exciting rookie.
Rookie Tight Ends
The drumbeats are getting louder for Tyler Warren (+14.7), Elijah Arroyo (+20.2) and Colston Loveland (+11), all of whom have clear paths to relevancy immediately and all of whom have bags of talent. Generally, we see rookie ADPs get overinflated post-draft, then fall in June and July before some of them go back up in August.
Deciding if the hype is worth chasing is key, and all three of these players have had enough positive talk from their coaches, as well as displaying characteristics we want, that we shouldn’t be afraid to mix them into three tight end builds in best ball.
FFPC Fallers
In our last edition, we talked about how Quinshon Judkins could fall off an ADP cliff, and that’s what we’re seeing now. The legal issues are still swirling, and Judkins hasn’t signed his contract at the time of writing and isn’t practicing with the team during training camp. All of this adds up to a very poor outcome for Judkins.
Najee Harris’s ADP may be the first of the fallers to bounce back, with him reportedly nearing a return to practice after a scary fireworks incident six weeks ago has left him without the use of one of his eyes.
That incident has opened up the door for Omarion Hampton, but it’s worth remembering that Greg Roman has nearly always relied on committees as an offensive coordinator and has rarely overloaded rookies early in their careers.
Ambiguity continues to swirl around Joe Mixon, who is on the non-football injury and non-football illness list (NFI) with a foot injury. Reports suggest Week 1 is very much in doubt, and it’s not like Mixon has been an efficient player in recent years. At a certain point, Mixon might become a value and worth it for later-season appeal, but we’re not there yet.
The Texans seem intent on passing the ball more this year, having drafted multiple wide receivers and deprioritized their offensive line, which was bad enough in 2024 before they traded Laremy Tunsil. It could be the case that even if healthy, Mixon might not be a good pick.
Nobody ran more pure in 2024 than Quentin Johnston, who had an uncanny knack for turning up in the right place at the right time and turning broken plays into touchdowns.
As nice as it was to see for a player who was much maligned coming off his rookie year, it seemed unsustainable. When we combine that with the additions of Keenan Allen and Tre Harris, it looks likely that Johnston will struggle for a consistent role in this run-heavy offense in 2025. Johnston is best kept as a stacking option primarily at this point.
Initially, it sounded like Darnell Mooney wouldn’t miss too much of training camp, but as the weeks have gone on, it’s started to sound less and less promising. Of course, we’re not drafting best ball teams for Week 1, but when we know little about the injury keeping a player out, it’s hard not to be concerned.
Mooney averaged 12.1 PPR points per game last year and had five games where he scored 17+ points. He might be a scary pick right now, but it could be worthwhile if Michael Penix can take this offense to the next level.
Subscribe: YouTube | Spotify | Apple Podcasts | iHeart | Castbox | Amazon Music | Podcast Addict | TuneIn
