The running back position is sometimes referred to as the most stable position in fantasy football. If you have a back receiving a substantial workload weekly, chances are they will produce for fantasy. Of course, this is also the position that is injured the most. Even if they remain perfectly healthy, though, not all backs are as safe as you think.
In this article, I am going to outline four backs who I believe carry more risk than others. Despite the majority of these players being in line for quality touches, the team may limit their path to fantasy production. Here are my running back bust candidates for 2025 fantasy football.
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Fantasy Football Busts: Running Backs
Jonathan Taylor (RB – IND)
Labelling a player who won people’s fantasy championships last year a bust candidate is fairly worrisome. We all know Jonathan Taylor has the talent to single-handedly win your week. After all, over the final three weeks of the season, Taylor had 520 rushing yards and five scores. He also had 95 carries over that stretch (averaging 32 attempts per game), which is wild. Unfortunately, this team is not set up for Taylor to find consistent production in 2025.
Last year, Taylor had some incredible highs but also some devastating lows. For example, from Weeks 9 to 12, Taylor scored a total of 29.6 fantasy points (7.4 points per game). If that stretch happened over the fantasy playoffs, our opinion of Taylor would be substantially different.
So far in camp, it looks like Anthony Richardson will be the starter. Not only will he be healthy by the start of the season, but Daniel Jones did not look good in his preseason relief duties. For Taylor’s fantasy production, Richardson is not who you want running this offense.
In the games Anthony Richardson played with Taylor, the back averaged 14.3 points per game. On the season, 14.3 points per game (PPG) would have been good enough to finish as the fantasy RB16. Instead, the games with Joe Flacco under center and his late-season resurgence pulled him up to the RB5 in PPG.
Why is Richardson detrimental to Taylor’s success? Not only does Richardson vulture rushing work, but he also doesn’t use the running back as a receiver. In Taylor’s 10 games with Richardson, he totalled seven receptions. On the season, Taylor and Derrick Henry were the only two backs to finish inside the top 32 at the position with fewer than 20 receptions.
If you remove a receiving floor, you get a Squid Games version of fantasy production; it’s either killing your week or moving you one step closer to winning. One of the reasons Taylor was able to overcome the lack of receiving work was that he scored a touchdown in 57% of his games. Going into 2025, Sharp Football predicts the Colts to score the 26th-most points in the league. In comparison, they were 16th in points per game last season.
This leads me to my final concern, rushing attempts. Considering the Colts have a projected win total of 7.5 games (tied for 22nd in the league), and they aren’t projected to score a lot of points, they’ll likely be playing from behind more often than not. As a result, the game scripts will likely not be in Taylor’s favour. Last season, Taylor averaged the most rushing attempts per game (21.64), and the Colts had the sixth-highest rate of rushing plays (48%). Over the final three games (when Taylor exploded), this jumped to 55%. In comparison, the percentage of rushing plays in 2023 was 44% and 39% in 2022.
Ultimately, this team is not set up to have a consistent fantasy running back who doesn’t catch passes. Taylor will likely be a fine player for fantasy; however, I believe his RB10 average draft position (ADP) is tough to reach given the situation.
Jordan Mason (RB – MIN)
One of the hottest sleepers of the offseason could burn fantasy managers. The Vikings traded a future sixth-round pick as well as moving down from the 160th pick to the 187th to acquire Jordan Mason. Upon trading for him, they signed him to a two-year, $12 million deal (with $7 million guaranteed). Although running backs are rarely traded, the compensation and commitment to Mason are fairly minimal.
Thankfully, the coaches have been very outspoken and positive about the potential two-headed backfield with Mason and Aaron Jones. The split has been called a 50-50, with Jones being the primary pass-catching back and Mason taking the majority of short-yardage/goal-line opportunities.
Targets are worth more than rushing attempts at the running back position. Whether you play any form of PPR or standard scoring, the fantasy points associated with each are different. This is one of the reasons that only Derrick Henry and Jonathan Taylor made the top 32 backs, despite having fewer than 20 receptions.
In Mason’s eight games playing 40% or more of snaps, he had 10 receptions. Over his career, he has had only 14 receptions and has never had a game with more than two receptions. All of this to say, Mason will not be involved in the passing game.
One of the most consistent reports from Vikings camp is that they want to run the ball. Last year, this team’s interior line made it almost impossible to be effective in short-yardage situations. For example, Aaron Jones had nine carries inside the 5-yard line for negative two yards and two touchdowns. Thankfully, they have addressed their line this offseason, adding two former Colts in guard Will Fries and center Ryan Kelly.
Even if their line is better, their offense might not be. Despite the offense being ninth in points per game in 2024, running backs only scored seven rushing touchdowns. This year, Sharp Football projects the Vikings to score the 19th-most points. As a result, the line upgrades could be negated with offensive regression.
Lastly, Mason has contingent upside running alongside 30-year-old Jones. Although true, the team still has Ty Chandler, who I believe would inherit the passing work if Jones goes down. All in all, if Jones stays healthy, it’s a tough road to fantasy production for Mason.
Josh Jacobs is a scary player to call a bust. After switching teams in 2024, Jacobs went on to have a career year, finishing as the fantasy RB5. It was truly an incredible season for the veteran back, tallying over 1,300 rushing yards, 16 touchdowns and 342 receiving yards.
This offseason, the team has continued to improve, drafting first-round receiver Matthew Golden and adding guard Aaron Banks in free agency. Why am I worried about Jacobs?
Last season was a relative anomaly for head coach Matt LaFleur. Before last season, LaFleur had never finished above 13th in rush attempts per game, averaging the 16th-most over those five seasons. Over that span, his offense has also averaged 0.88 rushing touchdowns per game. Last season, these numbers jumped to fifth in the league in rushing attempts per game and 1.3 rushing touchdowns per game. That’s a massive jump.
What led to this difference last season, and will it continue? The most obvious reasoning behind the shift is Jordan Love injuring his shoulder in Week 1. Although he only missed two games, he did not look healthy the rest of the season. Since LaFleur is one of the top play-callers, he shifted his offense to help protect Love and rely on the running game. Considering that he also coached Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams, I am doubtful that Jacobs’ ability was the prominent reason for this shift.
As a result, it’s hard to see Jacobs having nearly the season he did last year. If his touches decrease and his touchdown rate returns to his career average, he is closer to a middling RB2 than an RB1 for fantasy. Plus, he had the sixth-most fumbles at the position. With MarShawn Lloyd, Emanuel Wilson and Chris Brooks waiting in the wings, his rushing dominance could start to slip.
Breece Hall (RB – NYJ)
I think it’s safe to say that Breece Hall and the Jets just aren’t meant to be for fantasy. Every year, we do this dance where Hall truthers ogle over his talent, while the Jets organization finds new and creative ways to avoid the team’s success.
This year, they finally got out of Aaron Rodgers‘ miserable stint in New York and have moved on to journeyman quarterback Justin Fields. Being on three teams in three years makes him a journeyman, right? Either way, Fields is going to be under center for the guys in green come September.
Unfortunately for Hall, this has not been a great offseason for his fantasy outlook. Fields is not friendly to the running back position. Over his four years in the league, he has never had a running back finish inside the top 20 at the position.
The Jets have also been hyping up second-year back Braelon Allen. The 2024 fourth-round selection impressed as a rookie, flashing some impressive downhill power running. New head coach Aaron Glenn, who comes from the Lions, has discussed similarly using Hall and Allen like Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. Unlike the Lions, who led the league in points last year, the Jets are projected to score the 29th-most points.
Hall has the talent to explode one of these seasons for fantasy. Unfortunately, I struggle to see it happening this season, splitting touches on one of the league’s worst offenses. Hall is currently going as the RB13, which just sounds like a bad bet.
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