Welcome to the August update of the most overpriced players in NFL.com fantasy football drafts. The last two times I did this, I compared NFL.com’s prices to FantasyPros’ expert consensus rankings (ECR), finding the players most overvalued according to experts.
Today, I’m taking a different approach. Instead of comparing average draft position (ADP) to expert rankings, I’m making an apples-to-apples comparison of NFL.com’s ADP to overall PPR ADP (with NFL.com’s ADP data filtered out).
With this approach, we can use the wisdom of one massive crowd to find inefficiencies in a much smaller crowd. Without further ado, these are the players who are being overselcted by NFL.com drafters as we enter peak draft season.
- Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- 2025 Fantasy Football Expert Rankings
- Fantasy Football Dynasty Rankings
- Fantasy Football Trade Tools
Overvalued Fantasy Football Players to Avoid on NFL.com
Terry McLaurin (WR – WAS)
- NFL.com ADP: 30.7
- Consensus ADP: 43
Yikes. This is bad at first glance, but it gets even worse once we consider that almost all of Terry McLaurin’s fellow early-round wide receivers are going later on NFL.com than on other sites. Combine that with McLaurin going over a full round ahead of his consensus ADP, and we get a massive difference in positional ADP. McLaurin is the WR18 in overall PPR ADP, which is already too high for my money. But NFL.com managers are selecting him as a legitimate WR1, at WR12 overall. That’s simply insane.
Here are just some of the receivers McLaurin is being drafted ahead of on NFL.com: Tee Higgins, Mike Evans, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Davante Adams, Garrett Wilson. I don’t know about you, but I would easily rather have any of those five players than McLaurin, let alone my pick of the five.
The big issue with McLaurin is that his 2024 fantasy success was based largely on his 13 receiving touchdowns, a number that is essentially guaranteed to regress (he had just 14 touchdowns over the previous three seasons combined). Even with all those touchdowns, McLaurin still finished 2024 just 16th in PPR points per game. Drafting him as a top-12 receiver isn’t just betting against near-inevitable touchdown regression — it’s drafting him above how he produced last year
What consistently drives fantasy production (especially in PPR formats) is targets. And even with negligible competition, McLaurin wasn’t a target hog in 2024, ranking 36th among qualified wideouts with just 6.9 targets per game. Jayden Daniels was by far the best quarterback McLaurin has ever played with, but he was right by his usual averages with just 64.5 yards per game. With all this in mind, drafting him at his NFL.com ADP is simply a losing bet… and that’s before we even consider that he is currently not practicing and has requested a trade due to a contract dispute.
Justin Fields (QB – NYJ)
- NFL.com ADP: 69
- Consensus ADP: 118
I have to be honest: I’m tempted to agree with NFL.com drafters on this one. Justin Fields is a dual-threat option with a history of excellent fantasy production. Should we be drafting him behind unexciting pocket passers with their own red flags, like Jared Goff and Dak Prescott? But I promised that I would find the most overpriced players on NFL.com compared to consensus ADP, and it’s clear that Fields fits that bill.
On other sites, Fields isn’t even being drafted as a QB1, with an ADP of QB15. On NFL.com, he’s very solidly in the QB1 ranks at QB8. And there is no positional trend to make things better here: Other backend QB1s are mostly being drafted near their consensus ADPs. That means Fields’ 49-point gap is entirely natural.
I already said I’m tempted to agree with the NFL.com ADP here, so let’s look at the arguments both for and against Fields. In his six games as the Steelers’ starter last season, Fields averaged 19.1 points. That would have ranked him as the QB9 for the season (that’s a point in favor of his NFL.com ADP). However, that number is skewed by one massive 32-point outing — he finished outside the top 10 of quarterbacks in four of the six weeks, including two miserable 11-point outings (point for consensus ADP).
Fields also isn’t a lock to play well enough to hold onto a starting job (point consensus), although 36-year-old Tyrod Taylor isn’t exactly a threatening presence breathing down his neck (point NFL.com). The Jets will likely implement a run-heavy attack, especially given that their No. 2 WR is Josh Reynolds (point consensus). But they also likely plan to utilize Fields’ skillset, including designed quarterback runs (point NFL.com).
At the end of the day, I’ll leave this decision as an exercise to the reader. I don’t think having Fields as the QB8 is as egregious a misprice as it first seems. However, it’s still important to know that you’ll have to pay a massively higher price to draft him on NFL.com than on other sites. With this in mind, if you play in multiple leagues, it might be best to get your exposure to Fields elsewhere. But if you’re just thinking about a solitary NFL.com draft, I don’t hate selecting Fields at his inflated ADP, just know what you are getting into.
Jonnu Smith (TE – PIT)
- NFL.com ADP: 77.1
- Consensus ADP: 125
From a former Steeler to a brand-new Steeler, Jonnu Smith joins Justin Fields in having an NFL.com ADP over 40 picks ahead of his consensus ADP. Like with Fields, the difference bumps Smith up from being outside the top 12 at his position (TE13) to solidly inside it (TE8). And that actually might undersell how overvalued Smith is, as ECR has him down at TE18.
To be fair, even TE8 might seem like a bargain for Smith at first glance. He finished last season as the TE4 in total PPR points and TE5 in PPR points per game. The issue is that a lot of his 2024 production was system-driven, as he racked up underneath targets in the quick-game-only offense that the Dolphins were forced to run for most of the season. Even if he had stayed in Miami, his volume would likely have decreased.
Smith didn’t stay in Miami; instead, he was traded to Pittsburgh to reunite with Arthur Smith. Smith’s offense does feature plenty of work for tight ends, but the Steelers already have a flexible tight end in Pat Freiermuth and a blocking specialist in Darnell Washington.
If we’re looking for upside, there is a chance Smith ends up the second target on the Steelers, who don’t have much at pass-catcher outside of DK Metcalf. But it’s more likely that he returns to being a part-time player and inconsistent fantasy option, which he had been in every year of his career before last year in Miami. Selecting him in front of guaranteed starters who also have plenty of upside, like Evan Engram and David Njoku, is a mistake.
Subscribe: YouTube | Spotify | Apple Podcasts | iHeart | Castbox | Amazon Music | Podcast Addict | TuneIn
Ted Chmyz is a fantasy football contributor for FantasyPros.com. Find him on Twitter and Bluesky @Tchmyz for more fantasy content or to ask questions.
