Odd weeks have been a train wreck for my bold predictions. I opened the year by going 0-3, nailed one of my three bold predictions in Week 2, before going 0-3 again in Week 3. My season ledger is at 1-8. They wouldn’t be bold predictions if I got them all correct, but getting one out of nine right thus far isn’t cutting it. Let’s dive into my bold predictions for this week.
- Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Pickups
- Weekly Fantasy Football Expert Rankings
- Fantasy Football Start/Sit Advice
- Fantasy Football Trade Tools
Week 4 Fantasy Football Bold Predictions
Medium
Keon Coleman Will Finish as a Top-36 WR
Keon Coleman was brilliant in Buffalo’s comeback victory in Week 1. The second-year wideout had 11 targets, eight receptions, 112 receiving yards and a touchdown en route to a WR4 finish against the Ravens. Coleman has scored only 7.6 half-PPR points in the two subsequent contests combined.
The Bills are a commanding 15.5-point favorite. Buffalo might not need to air it out late if the game goes according to the spread. However, the game’s total is also 48 points, providing the Bills with an implied total of 31.75 points. Assuming the Bills approach their implied total, there will be touchdown opportunities, and Coleman can get in on the fun.
Coleman has a WR41 ranking in the expert consensus rankings (ECR) in half-PPR formats in Week 4. I’m even more bullish than the experts, expecting him to crack the top 36. The Saints have struggled against big-bodied, physical wide receivers. Marvin Harrison Jr. was the WR10 with 15.6 half-PPR points in Week 1, and Jauan Jennings was the WR11 with 17.4 half-PPR points in Week 2. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is a different archetype of wide receiver. Nevertheless, he was the WR7 in half-PPR points (18.1) in Week 3 against the Cardinals. Coleman can be the next wide receiver to dunk on New Orleans’ secondary.
Hot
Tetairoa McMillan Will Finish as a WR3 or Worse
Tetairoa McMillan has finished as the WR30, the WR27 and tied for the WR45 in half-PPR formats through the first three weeks. Thus, my prognostication that the talented rookie wideout will finish outside of the top 24 this week probably doesn’t feel particularly bold.
You’ll need to take that up with his WR17 ranking. McMillan also has impressive underlying data. According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, 79 wideouts have run at least 60 routes this year. Here’s how he ranks in several significant categories:
- 16th in air yards share (37.2%)
- 24th in target share (21.9%)
- Tied for 24th in targets per route run (0.23)
- 20th in first-read rate (28.0%)
- Tied for seventh in end-zone targets (three)
- Tied for 14th in expected half-PPR points per game (15.7)
The rookie receiver’s underlying data points to better days ahead.
McMillan also seemingly has a sweet matchup this week. The Patriots have allowed the seventh-most half-PPR points per game (32.8) to wide receivers this season. Non-astute gamers might be excited about McMillan’s matchup against the Patriots, but the rookie might be in for a long afternoon on Sunday.
Christian Gonzalez will likely suit up this week to make his season debut. Among 98 cornerbacks with at least 300 coverage snaps last season, Gonzalez had the 10th-best coverage grade, according to Pro Football Focus (PFF), and allowed the fourth-lowest quarterback rating (70.5) on targets in his direction.
I’d usually bang the drum for buying low on McMillan. However, waiting one more week could yield a cheaper acquisition cost if Gonzalez’s sticky coverage overwhelms McMillan.
Atomic
TreVeyon Henderson Will Record at Least 70 Scrimmage Yards and Score a Touchdown
I’m trusting Mike Vrabel to play his explosive rookie running back more this week and hold Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson accountable for their costly fumbles last week. What could go wrong? Snark aside, TreVeyon Henderson has recorded 51, 40 and 47 scrimmage yards in his first three professional contests, and he hasn’t struck paydirt yet. We project Henderson to have 55.5 scrimmage yards and 0.4 touchdowns against the Panthers.
I have my eyes on loftier outputs, expecting Henderson to get the most extensive work of his young career in a Charmin-soft matchup this weekend. According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Panthers have surrendered 114.3 rushing yards per game, five receptions per game and 34.7 receiving yards per game to running backs this season. Running backs have gashed Carolina for 5.72 yards per carry. The Panthers have allowed only one touchdown to running backs, but that’s likely a fluke given their inability to bottle them up.
Henderson was one of the NFL’s preseason darlings. He returned a kickoff for a touchdown and has tallied 138 scrimmage yards in three contests. Henderson doesn’t necessarily need a bell-cow role against Carolina’s leaky run defense to reach at least 70 scrimmage yards and score his first touchdown in the NFL.
However, he might have one if Vrabel doesn’t trust Stevenson and Gibson to protect the football. Henderson will remind gamers who drafted him why they were excited to pull the trigger on him during fantasy drafts with at least 70 yards and a touchdown against the Panthers this week.
Subscribe: YouTube | Spotify | Apple Podcasts | iHeart | Castbox | Amazon Music | Podcast Addict | TuneIn
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
