Start em or sit em? Fantasy football start or sit decisions can be excruciating. While it feels great to make the right call and cruise to fantasy glory, it hurts just as much when you have someone erupt while on your bench. You can use our Who Should I Start? tool to gauge advice from fantasy football experts as you make your lineup decisions. And you can also sync your fantasy football league for free using our My Playbook tool for custom advice, rankings and analysis.
Let’s take a look at a few polarizing players and what fantasy football expert Derek Brown advises. And you can find all of DBro’s fantasy football outlook in this week’s fantasy football primer.
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Fantasy Football Start’em, Sit’em Lineup Advice
Caleb Williams‘ rough outing in Week 1 has been well documented. His Week 2 performance offered hope that he is progressing in this new offensive system. Last week, among 34 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranked 17th in yards per attempt, 11th in catchable target rate, and he had the 13th-lowest off-target rate. He was still 27th in highly accurate throw rate, but at this point, we just want to see baby steps forward weekly. For fantasy purposes, Williams has been perfectly fine as the QB10 in fantasy points per game. His rushing output has helped in that department as he has averaged 5.5 rushing attempts and 42.5 rushing yards. Williams could be headed for a big day against a struggling Dallas secondary if Chicago can give him clean pockets. Dallas has allowed the fourth-most yards per attempt, the third-highest passer rating, and the highest CPOE. Dallas ranks 13th in pressure rate. The Bears rank 17th in pressure rate allowed. When pressured, Williams has only 5.0 yards per attempt and a 34.8 passer rating (third-worst). Williams’ range of outcomes this week is wider than most will expect because his week will depend heavily upon his offensive line.
As the QB20 in fantasy points per game, Kyler Murray hasn’t managed a QB1 performance this season. Murray ranks 19th in yards per attempt, 13th in CPOE, 21st in catchable target rate, and 17th in fantasy points per dropback. He is also ninth in rushing yards per game and 14th in rushing attempts per game among quarterbacks. Murray doesn’t have any rushing scores yet despite having two red zone rushing attempts. Murray could log his first QB1 performance of the season this week. The 49ers’ pass defense isn’t terrifying. They rank 15th in success rate per dropback while giving up the 13th-highest CPOE and 11th-highest passer rating. Murray should have time in the pocket this week against a defense that ranks 17th in pressure rate.
Oh, what a world. Daniel Jones is the QB2 in fantasy points per game. No, that’s not a typo. Jones leads all quarterbacks in yards per attempt while ranking sixth in passer rating, 18th in highly accurate throw rate, and ninth in catchable target rate. Don’t worry, some Dimes-esque moments are sprinkled in there as he also has the 12th-highest off-target rate. Jones has averaged 6.5 rushing attempts, 14 rushing yards, and has punched in three touchdowns on the ground. Jones just diced up the Denver defense, so I think he’s fully capable of doing so this week against the Titans. Last week, I think we saw the real Titans’ pass defense as they were torched, giving up 9.0 yards per attempt, a 105.4 passer rating, and an 8.4% CPOE. Tennessee has the 13th-lowest pressure rate, so Jones should have all the time he needs to rip this secondary apart.
Bo Nix played much better in Week 2 as the QB11 in fantasy. There are still some areas that he has to clean up. In Week 1, among 34 qualifying passers, Nix ranked tenth in passer rating, ninth in highly accurate throw rate, and 11th in hero throw rate, but he still had some “Ferris Bueller” moments (as Sean Payton would like to say), ranking 20th in catchable target rate and having the 11th-highest off-target rate. Nix has to clean this up, for the Bolts will make him pay for it this week. Just ask Geno Smith about it. The Chargers have allowed the second-fewest yards per attempt, the lowest passer rating and CPOE, and they have forced the fifth-highest rate of offensive drives ending in a turnover.
Jordan Love is the QB16 in fantasy points per game. This isn’t because Love is playing poorly, quite the opposite. It’s because of how the Packers are running their offense, and that Love ranks 27th in dropbacks. If this offense leaned into their passing game, it would be wheels up, but sadly, this is where we are. Love ranks third in yards per attempt, fourth in passer rating, and fifth in CPOE and fantasy points per dropback. Love should have another highly efficient day in Week 3. Cleveland has allowed the second-most passing touchdowns, the fourth-highest passer rating, and the ninth-highest CPOE.
Trevor Lawrence bounced back from a rough Week 1 as the QB11 in fantasy last week. Among 34 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 25th in yards per attempt, 28th in passer rating, 20th in highly accurate throw rate, and sixth in catchable target rate. He also has the ninth-highest turnover-worthy throw rate. Lawrence is facing a Texans’ pass defense that is still rounding into form. They rank 16th in yards per attempt and 17th in CPOE while allowing the 12th-highest passer rating. Lawrence should have time in the pocket as Houston’s pass rush has sagged ranking 22nd in pressure rate.
Well, apparently, the Ben Johnson hangover for Jared Goff and the Lions’ offense lasted one game. Goff put up 34 fantasy points in Week 2. Among 34 qualifying passers, he ranks seventh in yards per attempt and CPOE, ninth in highly accurate throw rate, and fourth in catchable target rate. The Ravens should allow Goff to flourish again in Week 3. After two games, Baltimore has allowed the second-most passing yards per game and the 11th-highest CPOE while ranking 16th in passer rating. The Ravens have generated the fourth-lowest pressure rate, so Goff should have all day in the pocket to dice up the secondary.
Jake Browning might be the Bengals’ starting quarterback for the rest of the season. Last week, he finished as the QB14 in fantasy. This season, among 34 qualifying passers, he ranks 13th in yards per attempt and 14th in highly accurate throw rate, but that’s where the good news stops. He has the highest turnover-worthy throw rate while ranking 33rd in catchable target rate and sporting the highest off-target rate. Browning has some Jameis Winston to his game. It’ll likely be better for fantasy purposes than for real-life football. In 2023, when he was the starter, he was the QB7 in fantasy points per game with five QB1 performances (QB4, QB4, QB8, QB8, QB9) in weekly scoring. The Bengals didn’t back off the throttle from passing heavily with Browning as they ranked 11th in neutral passing rate (61.5%) during that stretch. In 2023, among 39 qualifying quarterbacks, Browning was fifth in yards per attempt, seventh in passer rating, ninth in highly accurate throw rate, fifth in catchable target rate, and 13th in CPOE. He didn’t stretch the field much with the lowest aDOT (6.4) and third-lowest deep throw rate (7.8%). Browning has a tough test this week. Minnesota has allowed the ninth-fewest yards per attempt, the 14th-lowest passer rating, and the fifth-lowest CPOE. Brian Flores will bring the heat as the Vikes rank eighth in pressure rate and fifth in blitz rate. Good luck, Browning. Good luck. Passing volume should be on his side at least to rack up some stats.
Ok, Russell Wilson…I’m sorry. After Week 1, I doubted him and didn’t think he could even finish the game in Week 2 after his dreadful opening weekend. Mr. Unlimited shoved that thought right in my face. Wilson finished Week 2 as the QB2 in fantasy. Wilson still has some warts in his per-dropback metrics. While he ranks eighth in yards per attempt, 13th in passer rating, seventh in deep ball rate, and 11th in CPOE, Wilson also sits at 29th in highly accurate throw rate and 24th in catchable target rate. Wilson will have some more moments this season for as long as he keeps the starting job. This week could be another one against what has been an underachieving Chiefs pass defense. Kansas City has allowed the eighth-highest yards per attempt, the sixth-highest passer rating, and the third-highest CPOE.
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