Start em or sit em? Fantasy football start or sit decisions can be excruciating. While it feels great to make the right call and cruise to fantasy glory, it hurts just as much when you have someone erupt while on your bench. You can use our Who Should I Start? tool to gauge advice from fantasy football experts as you make your lineup decisions. And you can also sync your fantasy football league for free using our My Playbook tool for custom advice, rankings and analysis.
Let’s take a look at a few polarizing players and what fantasy football expert Derek Brown advises. And you can find all of DBro’s fantasy football outlook in this week’s fantasy football primer.
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Fantasy Football Start’em, Sit’em Lineup Advice: Running Backs
Bigsby had an awesome sophomore season for Jacksonville, especially considering how his rookie season unfolded. He finished as the RB40 in fantasy points per game, with eight weeks as the RB36 or higher in weekly fantasy scoring. Bigsby wasn’t involved in the passing game, having only 12 targets last year. We’ll see if that changes this season, as Bigsby was catching passes in the preseason in limited action. Among 46 qualifying backs, he ranked 21st in explosive run rate and second-best in yards after contact per attempt. Bigsby will be locked into a committee, and it remains to be seen how work will be divided up this season. He could take on more of the early down lifting with Travis Etienne playing on passing downs, or they could rotate drives while Bhayshul Tuten siphons off some snaps and opportunities. Bigsby has a nice on-paper matchup in Week 1, but appearances could be deceiving. Last year, in Weeks 10-18, Carolina fielded a legendarily bad run defense, giving up the most rushing yards per game, the fourth-highest explosive run rate, and the eighth-highest missed tackle rate. Carolina invested significant resources into their defensive line with the signings of Bobby Brown III, Tershawn Wharton, and Patrick Jones II, which will upgrade this unit along with the return of a healthy Derrick Brown. This is better viewed as an above-average matchup that could easily be a bad matchup for rushers this season.
Travis Etienne had an incredibly disappointing season last year as the RB37 in fantasy points per game. He dealt with a shoulder issue (Week 4) and hamstring problems (Week 6). In Weeks 1-3, he averaged 15 touches and 67.4 total yards. In Weeks 10-18, after he was over the hamstring woes, he averaged 14 touches and 57.6 total yards. His per-touch efficiency in the 11 games that he was at his healthiest last year was putrid. Etienne had an 8% missed tackle rate and only 2.30 yards after contact per attempt. Those are backup-level worthy tackle-breaking numbers. Etienne will be locked into a committee, and it remains to be seen how work will be divided up this season. He could take on more of the passing downs with Tank Bigsby playing on rushing downs, or they could rotate drives while Bhayshul Tuten siphons off some snaps and opportunities. Etienne has a nice on-paper matchup in Week 1, but appearances could be deceiving. Last year, in Weeks 10-18, Carolina fielded a legendarily bad run defense, giving up the most rushing yards per game, the fourth-highest explosive run rate, and the eighth-highest missed tackle rate. Carolina invested significant resources into their defensive line with the signings of Bobby Brown III, Tershawn Wharton, and Patrick Jones II, which will upgrade this unit along with the return of a healthy Derrick Brown. This is better viewed as an above-average matchup that could easily be a bad matchup for rushers this season.
With Quinshon Judkins still unsigned and not part of the backfield equation, Jerome Ford is penciled in as the leader of the ground game out of the gate. Last year, when he was active with Nick Chubb in the lineup, he averaged 8.2 touches and 47.7 total yards as the RB39 in fantasy points per game. Ford remained explosive last year. Among 46 qualifying backs, he ranked eighth in explosive run rate and yards after contact per attempt while finishing 18th in missed tackles forced per attempt. The Browns have been hesitant to load Ford up with volume in recent seasons, despite his per-touch efficiency screaming that he deserves more volume. We’ll see him work in tandem with Dylan Sampson, but their division of labor is still up for debate. Ford is a decent flex play in deeper leagues with a nice matchup. Last year, in Weeks 10-18, Cincy allowed the tenth-highest explosive run rate and the 13th-highest missed tackle rate while also ranking 15th in rushing yards per game allowed.
With Joe Mixon out, Nick Chubb will begin the season as Houston’s lead back. Last year, before he was lost again to a foot fracture, he looked like a shell of his former self. Chubb only had a 2% explosive run rate, a 10% missed tackle rate, and 1.96 yards after contact per attempt. These numbers are all basement-level efficiency metrics. Hopefully, he improves upon these numbers in 2025, but with his lengthy injury history at age 29, it’s far from certain. Chubb is a touchdown-dependent flex to open the year. He could post a nice stat line to begin the year. Last year, in Weeks 10-18, the Rams allowed the 12th-most rushing yards per game and the sixth-highest missed tackle rate while having the fourth-lowest stuff rate. The addition of Poona Ford in the offseason will help these numbers. The question is how much?
Last year, Tony Pollard had a strong 2024 season as the Titans’ workhorse starter. With Tyjae Spears out for the early portion of this season, Pollard is primed to revisit that workload. Last year, he ranked ninth in snap share, opportunity, and weighted opportunities. Pollard finished as the RB22 in fantasy points per game while ranking 18th in explosive run rate and sixth in yards after contact per attempt. Pollard will face an uphill battle against Denver’s run defense in Week 1. Last year, in Weeks 10-18, Denver allowed the second-fewest rushing yards per game, the 11th-lowest missed tackle rate, and had the second-highest stuff rate. Pollard, hopefully, can get into the endzone and survive as a volume play in Week 1.
R.J. Harvey, in his limited preseason action, got all the work on first and second downs while giving up the pass protection assignments on third down to other backs. He looks primed to lead this backfield immediately out of the gate. Harvey ranked inside the top 20 among FBS running backs in each of the last two seasons in breakaway percentage and elusive rating. Over the last two years, Payton has ranked fifth and first in running back target share. Harvey is a strong borderline RB1. Last year, Tennessee faced the third-fewest running back targets, but they allowed 81.1% of them to be secured while giving up the most receiving touchdowns to backs in the NFL. Payton will try to exploit this in Week 1. Last year, in Weeks 10-18, Tennessee allowed the second-most rushing yards per game and seventh-most yards after contact per attempt while having the 14th-lowest stuff rate. They surrendered the third-highest yards per carry to gap runs (5.22) during that stretch and the ninth-highest gap rushing success rate. In the preseason, 38% of Harvey’s runs were with a gap design. Tennessee did add Cody Barton and Xavier Woods this offseason to upgrade their defense overall and their run defense, so they could be improved against gap runs. We’ll have to see.
Last year, J.K. Dobbins had a nice bounce-back season as the RB18 in fantasy points per game with 227 touches and 1,058 total yards. Among 46 qualifying backs, he ranked 17th in explosive run rate, but he was outside the top 25 backs in missed tackles forced per attempt and yards after contact per attempt. Dobbins should be the third down/pass protection back while also taking some of the rushing load off of R.J. Harvey. Last year, in Weeks 10-18, Tennessee allowed the second-most rushing yards per game and seventh-most yards after contact per attempt while having the 14th-lowest stuff rate. They surrendered the third-highest yards per carry to gap runs (5.22) during that stretch and the ninth-highest gap rushing success rate. Last year, 59% of Dobbins’ runs were with gap design, and he had 4.95 yards per carry. Tennessee did add Cody Barton and Xavier Woods this offseason to upgrade their defense overall and their run defense, so they could be improved against gap runs. We’ll have to see in Week 1, but I would be surprised if Sean Payton didn’t try to test it.
Austin Ekeler was a nice surprise when on the field last year. He dealt with two concussions in 2024, which forced him to miss five games, but when active, he was the RB29 in fantasy points per game. He had some elevated usage in weeks where Brian Robinson Jr. was limited or out, so I think we can project some regression in 2025 if Jacory Croskey-Merritt and Chris Rodriguez can stay healthy. Also, the addition of Deebo Samuel could cut into Ekeler’s short-area passing game usage. Last year, Ekeler was 11th in target share and third in yards per route run among backs. He’s a viable PPR flex this week if you’re in a pinch. Last year, the Giants allowed the 11th-most receiving yards and the seventh-highest yards per reception to running backs.
Tyrone Tracy Jr. took over as the Giants’ starting back in Week 5 last season and never looked back as the RB22 in fantasy points per game. Well, he did have some bumps in the road with fumbles. Tracy Jr. finished with the 23rd-most touches among running backs last year, but he was tied for the third-most fumbles at the position. Tracy Jr. was explosive with his touches last year, ranking 16th in explosive run rate and 20th in missed tackles forced per attempt. Tracy Jr. will get the first crack at retaining his workhorse job after Cam Skattebo was sidelined in the preseason and during camp with a hamstring injury. Tracy Jr. will have to deal with a run defense that last year, in Weeks 10-18, allowed the third-lowest rushing success rate, the fourth-lowest explosive run rate, and the sixth-lowest yards after contact per attempt.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt was a predraft love lister for me. Sadly, he dropped all the way to the seventh round of the NFL Draft before the Commanders picked up the phone. If Croskey-Merritt hadn’t had his 2024 season cut off by an eligibility issue, he would have gone much higher than this. His 2023 season was excellent. He ranked 19th in yards after contact per attempt and 12th in elusive rating (per PFF). He’s a no-nonsense runner who makes one cut and gets downhill. We still have to see what his role in the backfield is this week. Yes, I know he was listed as the RB4 on the most recent depth chart. (clears throat) I DON’T CARE! I’m also old enough to remember when R.J. Harvey was listed at the bottom of the Denver Broncos depth chart. I think he will be the primary early down runner and get the goal line work, but I also know Chris Rodriguez remains on this roster. There’s some risk running him out there this week as an RB2, but as a flex option for most teams, the risk is baked in. On paper, the Giants look like a plus matchup on the ground, but looks could be deceiving. Last year, in Weeks 10-18, New York allowed the ninth-highest explosive run rate, the 11th-highest missed tackle rate, and the second-most yards after contact per attempt. During part of that sample (after Week 13), Dexter Lawrence was out. The Giants also upgraded their run defense significantly this offseason with the additions of Abdul Carter, Jevon Holland, and Darius Alexander. I’m treating this as an average matchup until we see everything play out in Week 1.
The workload division for the New England backfield is up in the air. We’ll have to see how that plays out early this season before we can get a full understanding of TreVeyon Henderson‘s weekly expected touch count. Even if he is more limited out of the gate, Henderson has the per-touch explosiveness to make the most of his opportunities. In two of his last four seasons in college, Henderson ranked top ten in yards after contact per attempt (seventh, eighth) and top 20 in breakaway percentage (10th, 18th). He will operate behind an improved offensive line that added Garrett Bradbury, Will Campbell, and Morgan Moses in the offseason. Henderson should be the favorite for passing down work, which is great news for his floor and ceiling. Across his last two collegiate seasons, Henderson has ranked 21st & 22nd in receiving grade. Josh McDaniels will feature him through the air. In McDaniels’ last five full seasons of directing NFL offenses, he has ranked inside the top ten in four of those years, with 20-36.2% of the passing attack flowing through the backfield. The Raiders have a worrisome defensive line assortment when it comes to stopping the run. Last year, Adam Butler (48.3) and Thomas Booker IV (53.6) had run defense grades below 55, and Malcolm Koonce has performed at a similar level in two of his three NFL seasons. Last year, the Raiders had the 14th-highest missed tackle rate and allowed the eighth-highest yards after contact per attempt. Arguably, their run defense personnel has worsened, too. Henderson could rip off a few big runs in Week 1 and finish with a banner day.
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