Start em or sit em? Fantasy football start or sit decisions can be excruciating. While it feels great to make the right call and cruise to fantasy glory, it hurts just as much when you have someone erupt while on your bench. You can use our Who Should I Start? tool to gauge advice from fantasy football experts as you make your lineup decisions. And you can also sync your fantasy football league for free using our My Playbook tool for custom advice, rankings and analysis.
Let’s take a look at a few polarizing players and what fantasy football expert Derek Brown advises. And you can find all of DBro’s fantasy football outlook in this week’s fantasy football primer.
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Fantasy Football Start’em, Sit’em Lineup Advice: Tight Ends
Last year, Tucker Kraft stepped up as Green Bay’s clear present and future starting tight end. The South Dakota State alum finished as the TE14 in fantasy points per game in the Packers’ run-heavy offense. Green Bay loves its committee approach with the passing game, so it’s tough to see Kraft becoming a high-end target earner in this offense, but he has the talent to do so. Last year, among 47 qualifying tight ends, Kraft ranked 20th in target share and 27th in first read share, but he posted top 12 marks in receiving yards per game (12th-best), yards per route run (seventh), missed tackles forced (third), and yards after the catch per reception (first). Green Bay did feed him an 18.5% designed target rate (second-best among tight ends), but he wasn’t the first option on many passing plays. As much as I love Kraft, I’m not bullish on his outlook this week against Detroit. Last year, in two meetings with this defense, he averaged only 3.5 receptions and 37.5 receiving yards. The Lions were tough on tight ends all year, allowing the third-fewest receiving yards and the 14th-fewest yards per reception.
Last year, Evan Engram ranked 20th in yards per route run, but his target-drawing ability was just fine, ranking fifth in targets per route run and third in target share. He was also dealing with shoulder and hamstring issues. Those were his first injuries to deal with during a season since 2021. In Engram’s two previous seasons, he ranked 13th and 14th in yards per route run and second and 12th in target share. Also, in 2023-2024, Engram excelled in one of the hallmark metrics that I look at when evaluating talent and upside at the tight end position: yards per route run versus man coverage. In those seasons, Engram ranked fourth and eighth in this metric. Engram still has massive upside in this offense, but his preseason usage is concerning. In the third week of preseason action, he had only a 64% route per dropback rate. If that holds all season, it’ll cap his upside in fantasy. I’m unsure that it will. Engram has a tough matchup for Week 1 against a defense that gave up the ninth-fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to tight ends.
Tyler Warren‘s talent is undeniable, but his target volume in this offense weekly behind Josh Downs and Michael Pittman, along with quarterback play concerns, have clouded his outlook for 2025. During his final collegiate season, Warren ranked in the top three among tight ends in yards per route run, receiving grade, missed tackles forced, and yards after the catch. Warren could start the season off right with a TE1 finish out of the gate against a Miami secondary that allowed the 12th-most receiving yards and fantasy points per game to tight ends last year. Daniel Jones should look to feed easy catch and run targets to Warren against a defense that allowed the tenth-most missed tackles last year.
Dalton Kincaid dealt with injuries last season (knee/shoulder) that derailed his season after Week 9. Last year, in Weeks 1-9, he was the TE15 in fantasy points per game, which is a massive disappointment for a player with his talent in a scoring-rich environment in Buffalo. During that stretch, among 38 qualifying tight ends, he ranked sixth in target share (19.2%) and first-read share (21.3%), 18th in receiving yards per game (36.9), 17th in yards per route run (1.71), and 15th in first downs per route run. His market share in the Bills offense is encouraging, but his per-route efficiency is concerning, as well as his 64.9% route per dropback rate (19th). I don’t know if we see a role change for Kincaid in 2025, but Kincaid could see a heavy workload in Week 1 against a defense that allowed the ninth-most receiving yards and the tenth-most receptions to tight ends last year.
I’m frightened to death about Kyle Pitts‘ season-long outlook in 2025, but he is worth considering as a streamer/YOLO upside play in Week 1 (if ya need the upside). Last year, Pitts was the TE20 in fantasy points per game. Among 47 qualifying tight ends, Pitts ranked 24th in target share, 19th in receiving yards per game, 26th in yards per route run, and 39th in first downs per route run. That is all bone-chilling, but his boxscore numbers against Tampa Bay were mouthwatering. He posted arguably his best two games against this defense last year, averaging 5.5 receptions and 89.5 receiving yards with TE2 and TE6 weekly scoring finishes. Last year, Tampa Bay had the sixth-highest single high rate (59.5%). Last year, against single-high, Pitts had a 17% target per route run rate and 2.03 yards per route run, but he also logged a 9.3% first-read share and only 0.064 first downs per route run. He’s a boom or bust play for Week 1. It could also help him, though, that Tampa Bay gave up the fourth-most receiving yards per game and yards per reception to tight ends.
Last year, in Drake Maye‘s full starts, Hunter Henry had a 19.2% target share, averaged 49.9 receiving yards per game, had 1.70 yards per route run, a 22.7% first-read share, and 0.098 first downs per route run. I’ll also add on top that he averaged 11.3 PPR points per game in that sample. Last year, among all tight ends with 25 targets, those marks would have ranked seventh, sixth, 14th, fifth, eighth, and the points per game production would have made him the TE8 in fantasy. Last year, the Raiders allowed the fifth-most receiving yards per game and the seventh-highest yards per reception to tight ends.
Ben Johnson seemingly got his Sam LaPorta. I don’t think Colston Loveland is on the same talent plane as LaPorta, and I don’t mean that as shade, but their skill sets are different. Loveland has stellar per-route efficiency and the route-running chops to match, but he isn’t the same mauler after the catch, with only eight missed tackles forced in his collegiate career. Across his final two collegiate seasons, he ranked fifth in yards per route run in both seasons and third and tenth in receiving grade. Loveland’s route share to begin the season (and all year) is a mystery. I don’t think Cole Kmet is just going to disappear, so we could see Loveland’s route share capped, which could make him Dalton Kincaid 2.0. His Week 1 matchup against Minnesota is ok, but it’s not anything to get overly excited about. Last year, Minnesota was 15th in receiving yards and 17th in yards per reception allowed to tight ends. Loveland is a risky TE2 who could easily overperform or disappoint. The range of outcomes is wide this week.
Zach Ertz had a very “Ertzian” season in 2024, where volume and a perfect set of circumstances helped carry him to a TE10 in fantasy points per game finish. Last year, among 47 qualifying tight ends, Ertz ranked 12th in target share (16.8%), 17th in receiving yards per game (38.5), 27th in yards per route run (1.45), 14th in first read share (17.2%), and 20th in first downs per route run. Ertz will have streaming-worthy matchups this season, but don’t look his way this week. Last year, the Giants allowed the fourth-fewest receiving yards to tight ends and the third-fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game.
Brenton Strange enters the 2025 season as the team’s undisputed starter after Evan Engram‘s departure. Last year, Strange had seven games in which he played at least 60% of the snaps, where he averaged 9.2 fantasy points per game. In those games, he also saw a 14.8% target share with a 17.3% first-read share while producing 1.39 yards per route run, 36.1 receiving yards per game, and 0.071 first downs per route run. Those are pretty much TE2-worthy numbers across the board outside of the first-read share, which will decline some with Travis Hunter and Dyami Brown in town. Strange is a viable tight end option for deeper leagues or if you punted the position in a draft. Last year, Carolina was crushed by the position. They allowed the fifth-highest yards per reception and the most receiving touchdowns per game to tight ends.
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