NFL DFS Picks & Lineup Advice (Week 2)

Week 2 is a unique week during the NFL season and in the NFL DFS realm. Week 1 was a critical data point for player usage and team tendencies. However, some gamers will immediately overreact to the results from last week. At the same time, others will underreact to the data provided in Week 1. This week’s DFS analysis aims to strike a balance between underreacting to and overreacting to last week’s events.

Interestingly, the first suggested game stack features a team that underachieved in Week 1, while the second includes two squads that had explosive performances. The suggested players among the studs, values and punts also include a mix of stellar performers in Week 1 and players who should have better showings this week.

NFL DFS Picks & Predictions: Week 2

Core Studs

Christian McCaffrey is projected as the RB1 with the RB1 value score at both DFS outlets. Despite last week’s hysteria about CMC’s calf “injury,” he had a robust 76% snap share. McCaffrey handled 22 of San Francisco’s backfield’s 31 rush attempts, accumulating a nice 69 yards against a stout defense. CMC also had a 71.8% route participation rate, 10 targets, nine receptions and 73 receiving yards. CMC is a dying-breed workhorse, and the Mac Jones-led 49ers will almost certainly force-feed CMC in Week 2.
James Conner saved his Week 1 with a touchdown. Nevertheless, he didn’t live up to the expectations I expounded upon him last week as a suggested core stud. I’m going back to the well with Conner in the most drool-inducing matchup for a running back. The Panthers allowed an NFL-high 32.1 DraftKings points per game, 28.1 FanDuel points per game and 148.2 rushing yards per game to running backs in 2024. Carolina also coughed up 1.06 rushing touchdowns per game, 4.35 receptions per game, 35.6 receiving yards per game and 0.18 receiving touchdowns per game to the position last season. In Week 1, they permitted an NFL-high 173 rushing yards, four receptions and 17 receiving yards to running backs. Making matters worse for their pitiful run defense, pricey offseason signing Tershawn Wharton is expected to miss multiple weeks, removing a beefy defensive tackle from the mix. Conner should bounce back from an underwhelming showing to steamroll the Panthers.
Chase won last year’s receiving triple crown, but Higgins had a high air yards share (36.0% versus 34.5%) and more end-zone targets (15 compared to 13) than Chase in the 12 games they played together. Higgins’ 17.7 expected fantasy points per game weren’t a far cry from Chase’s 19.4 in those contests. I love both wideouts, but the gap in Chase’s and Higgins’ salaries is too large.

Value Plays/Punts

Drake Maye has the QB1 value score at DraftKings and the QB2 value score at FanDuel this week. Daniel Jones just dunked on the Dolphins last week, and Maye is the next person up. Maye didn’t play a flawless game in Week 1. Nevertheless, his 287 passing yards last week were the most in a game in his career. Maye also has more rushing upside than his 11 yards last week suggest. PFF’s John Kosko ranked Miami’s secondary 29th in the NFL entering the season. Thus, their comical showing in Week 1 against Danny Dimes might not prove to be a blip on the radar. Maye is an excellent QB selection at both platforms in all game types.
Kayshon Boutte is Maye’s top weapon. He flashed some vertical ability last year and had an eye-catching showing in Week 1. Boutte topped the Patriots in route participation (75.5%), air yards (138), air yards share (38.8%), first-read rate (23.3%), receiving yards (103) and yards per route run (2.58 Y/RR). He was also tied for first on the team in target share (17.4%) and receptions (six). Boutte can build on last week’s showing in a Charmin-soft matchup against Miami’s pathetic secondary.
Harold Fannin burst on the scene in his professional debut and has the TE1 value score for Week 2 at DraftKings. Among 49 tight ends with at least 10 routes in Week 1, Fannin was tied for eighth in target share (20.0%), seventh in targets per route run (0.31), sixth in air yards share (24.9%), tied for second in receptions (seven), sixth in receiving yards (63), sixth in yards per route run (2.17) and sixth in expected fantasy points per route run (0.55). Kevin Stefanski moved Fannin all over the formation and utilized him as a focal point of the offense. Fannin’s usage in Week 1 was too good for gamers to ignore him at a punt salary in Week 2.