The current week of NFL DFS is always my favorite. The slate is clean, and we are not forced to deal with our draft day mistakes like we do in managed seasonal leagues. It is all about honing in on value plays and which ones to slot in our DFS lineups.
This article aims to decipher values in the lobbies. It is not meant to be a roster builder. Instead, it will help identify key players priced below their production potential based on various factors for DraftKings and FanDuel.
Injuries have been piling up, but we have a 13-game slate to break down, so let’s get to it.
NFL DFS Value Plays: Week 3
Quarterbacks
Mac Jones drew the start due to an injury to Brock Purdy. Brandon Aiyuk is not close to returning. George Kittle is sidelined. Still, Jones stepped confidently onto the field for his new team and proceeded to throw for 279 passing yards and three touchdowns on his way to a QB9 finish for the week.
Jones played with poise and what appears to be a decent grasp of this offensive scheme. He (mostly) led his receivers away from contact and showed more touch on his passes than the last time we saw him.
Was it lightning in a bottle, or can he strike again?
The Cardinals surrender the 14th-most points to the quarterback position and allow an average of 271 passing yards and 1.5 passing touchdowns per game. The matchup is not scary.
Using Jones in tournaments this week allows for backloading the skill position players due to his cost-effective price tag. He can be stacked high with Christian McCaffrey or at a more reasonable price point with Jauan Jennings.
Jones could come out and flop. Or, he could come out and play competent football, giving DFS managers who go with more of the heavy hitters at other positions a boost. He is only recommended for GPP contests and best used in a multiple lineup entries using other lower-cost quarterbacks to achieve the same type of strategy, which this slate seems primed for.
The salary could be a little better, but the oddsmakers are onto this matchup. This game features the league’s most friendly defense against quarterbacks (the Bears), versus the fourth-most friendly defense against quarterbacks (the Cowboys). This game’s 50.5 projected total is the second-highest on this slate, making it a game to want pieces of.
Prescott is coming off a QB5 finish last week, throwing for 361 yards and two touchdowns against the Giants. While more difficult to stack with CeeDee Lamb, due to cost, other options on this offense would create positive point return potential without crushing other positions. Players like Jake Ferguson and Javonte Williams would pair nicely at a more affordable cost.
This game, and both quarterbacks, are going to chalky this week. Therefore, Prescott is best used in cash contests.
Running Backs
In Week 1, Ken Walker took a smaller role behind Zach Charbonnet. The result was close to an even split, with Walker managing two yards per attempt on 10 carries, while Charbonnet performed far better. In Week 2, Walker reminded us all of the kind of explosive runner he is capable of being. He turned 13 carries into 105 yards and a score on his way to an RB9 finish for the week.
Spoiler alert: Charbonnet is out for this game, leaving more of the workload to Walker. He gets a matchup against a Saints run defense allowing the 12th-most fantasy points to the running back position and that has allowed two receiving touchdowns in as many weeks.
The Saints have not allowed a rushing score yet, and this lowly DFS writer believes that ends this week. Walker possesses a home run type of big-play ability that is always a threat. He looked sharp and explosive last week and this defense does not instill fear against the position.
Due to Charbonnet’s absence, Walker will be in close to 30% rostership territory, making him far more favored as a cash contest selection.
Rhamondre Stevenson averaged 2.1 yards per carry in Week 1, on his way to an RB43 finish. No bueno, as they say. Redemption came just a short week later as he totalled 142 scrimmage yards and 4.9 yards per carry. He is still searching for his first touchdown of the season.
Thus far, Stevenson is operating as the lead back, handling 65% of the team’s running back snaps. Through two games, he is averaging 12.5 touches and 84.5 total yards. His floor is safe due to his involvement in the passing game.
This week, the Patriots face off against the Steelers, who are allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to the position. They have allowed two 100+ yard games on the ground and surrendered three total touchdowns in two weeks of play. They are becoming a defense to target from the running back position.
Stevenson’s rostership is expected to be in the 5-10% range, making him viable in both cash and GPP contests.
Wide Receiver
Remember earlier when it was mentioned that this is a game to target for DFS purposes? Rome Odunze saunters in from stage left as Caleb Williams‘ preferred target. He is operating with a 27.9% target share, which has led him to an overall WR4 current standing in fantasy points per game.
A first glance at the stats appears that Odunze is floating on touchdowns, after securing three in two weeks. However, it goes deeper than that. He is handling a 33% first-read target share in this young offense.
The Bears square off against the Cowboys this week, who run a lot of two-high safety coverage. In that scheme, Odunze does produce a little lighter, statistically. So, this could be a DJ Moore game, but Williams has shown he is looking to Odunze first and is $100 cheaper than his teammate.
Odunze is going to land in the 30% rostership range, making him more of a cash game option. However, Williams is affordable, and this makes for a value stack in a game that features the second-highest projected total on the slate and in a game that has shootout potential due to both defenses being lackluster.
The exciting rookie has come out of the gate sprinting to fantasy greatness. In two outings, with a second-year quarterback, mind you, he has weekly finishes of WR30 and WR27, respectively. He had nine targets in Week 1 and 10 in Week 2. His current yards per attempt is 15.3 on 19 total targets. He is currently the WR22 on the season in fantasy points per game. McMillan is averaging an 18.9% target share, which could actually increase as the season rolls on.
The Panthers face the Falcons this week, who are allowing the 13th-most fantasy points to perimeter receivers. The one hitch in the giddyup here is that they apply some serious pressure to the quarterback, coming in as the second-most difficult matchup to that position.
Bryce Young has played well since returning from his benching last season. This game will be more of a test for Young to supply McMillan than it is for McMillan. He runs clean routes and can gain enough separation to make some noise if Young has enough time to make his reads.
The salary is lucrative versus potential production; however, there is risk in this play on the quarterback side. McMillan comes in as a safer floor, higher upside selection for this week’s slate. Due to that, he slots in better as a cash game option, where stacking is less crucial.
Tight End
Let’s cut to the chase, Juwan Johnson is the current TE2 in fantasy points per game. He is averaging an impressive 25% target share and also happens to be leading the team in red-zone targets this season. What’s amazing is that it has taken essentially a backup quarterback in Spencer Rattler to unlock Johnson as a viable target. Johnson has not seen more than 66 targets in any season while being a pro. He has already seen 20 targets this season, and we are in Week 2.
The Saints face the Seahawks in a plus matchup. Seattle happens to be allowing the most fantasy production to the position thus far. They’re allowing eight receptions, 54 yards and one touchdown per game to the position. This game might not be pretty, but there are definitely some fantasy points to be had, and Johnson will see a healthy share of them.
Johnson is viable in both cash and GPP contests this week.
Kyle Pitts is almost starting to resemble the prospect we all thought he was a few seasons ago. He is currently the TE13 in fantasy points per game and is seeing just over a 20% target share. He has 13 targets for 96 yards through two games. Having gone back and watched both games, there are some positives that have become apparent.
First, he is seeing targets at a higher rate. Second, we are seeing the separation and athleticism that made him such a high prospect coming into the NFL. And he has a soft matchup this week.
The Panthers are allowing the third-most fantasy points to the position and have surrendered 59 and 78 yards to primary tight ends over the first two games.
The role is looking better, the matchup is good and the price point still leaves room on the table for value. Pitts is a high-end TE2 with scoring upside. He is best utilized as a GPP selection this week.
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John Hesterman is a featured writer and Expert Consensus Ranker at FantasyPros. He also writes for DynastyLeagueFootball.com. For more from John, check out his archive and follow him on Bluesky @John-Hesterman or Twitter/X @John_Hesterman.
