Week 1’s NFL DFS main slate is always unique. First, it’s the DFS gamers’ first opportunity to see how teams will use players after offseason speculation. Second, salaries are released early, creating some overqualified punts and the chance to jam in an extra stud or two based on the salary relief the high-caliber punts offer. Let’s look at my two favorite game stacks, my top studs, my favorite values/punts and my three favorite pick ’em choices at Underdog.
NFL DFS Picks & Predictions: Week 1
Suggested Game Stacks
Game: Falcons vs. Buccaneers
Spread/Total: TB -2.5/47.5 Points
The Falcons are slight home underdogs against their NFC South rivals. The game’s slight spread should allow Bijan Robinson to stay busy on the ground and through the air, but he’s a game-script-proof player anyway. Robinson initially began last year sharing meaningful playing time with Tyler Allgeier in Zac Robinson’s first season as the club’s offensive coordinator, but Robinson pulled away as the season went on. From Week 9 through Week 18, Robinson’s snap share ranged from 71% to 91%, sitting at 75% or higher after Atlanta’s Week 12 bye. According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, Robinson had the following stats and ranks (in parentheses) among running backs from Week 13 through Week 18.
- 112.2 rushing yards per game (fourth)
- Eight rushing touchdowns (tied for first)
- 85.7% of the team’s rush attempts inside the five-yard line (tied for ninth)
- 61.2% route participation rate (third)
- 16 receptions (tied for ninth)
- 12.0 receiving yards per game (tied for 41st)
- 21.8 expected fantasy points per game (first)
Robinson’s underlying and surface-level stats were elite, and we project him to be the RB1 at DraftKings and FanDuel, with the RB1 value score at the former and the RB8 value score at the latter. Robinson is an excellent selection as part of this stack, but I’ll also highlight his teammate from the table above in the core studs section below.
Baker Mayfield is the triggerman for the favored Buccaneers, and he’s become an outstanding quarterback in two years with Tampa Bay. Mayfield has already demonstrated the ability to overcome a change at the offensive coordinator spot, but he’ll need to do so again this season.
Mayfield has also demonstrated the ability to sling it in hostile environments. According to StatHead, in 18 road games since 2023, Mayfield has chucked it for 4,038 passing yards (224.3 per game), 35 passing touchdowns and 7.66 adjusted net passing yards per attempt.
Mayfield also lit up the Falcons last year. In two meetings against Atlanta in 2024, Mayfield completed 75.7% of his 74 pass attempts for 510 yards (255 per game) and six touchdowns, with nine rushes for 53 rushing yards.
Unfortunately, Chris Godwin is still working his way back from a second ankle surgery, Jalen McMillan is injured and Cade Otton was limited in practice with a groin injury. On the plus side, Mayfield’s target tree is narrowed, and Mike Evans has balled out in two seasons with Mayfield. In the last two years, Evans has piled up 153 receptions (4.9 per game), 2,259 receiving yards (72.9 per game) and 24 touchdown receptions in 31 games. Evans’ rapport with Mayfield could make him Tampa Bay’s highest-scoring wide receiver this week, and we project him as the WR8 at DraftKings and FanDuel. However, I’m more excited to use his new teammate listed on the table, who will be featured among the values/punts below.
Game: Jaguars vs. Panthers
Spread/Total: JAC -3.5/46.5 Points
I won’t pretend to have a crystal ball and precise insight into who will tote the rock for the Jaguars. However, I can confirm Carolina’s run defense was a massive dumpster fire last season. According to Sumer Sports, the Panthers were tied for the most expected points added (EPA) allowed per rush attempt last season.
Teams wisely attacked Carolina’s susceptibility on the ground. According to RotoViz’s pace app, the Panthers were tied for the highest situation-neutral rush rate (49%) against them. Running backs trounced their leaky run defense. Per Pro Football Reference, the Panthers permitted the most rushing yards per game (148.2), the most DraftKings points per game (32.1) and the most FanDuel points per game (28.1) to running backs in 2024.
I wouldn’t call someone foolish for rolling the dice on Travis Etienne Jr. However, Tank Bigsby is the horse I’m backing as a dart in GPPs from Jacksonville’s backfield. The following table has Bigsby’s and Etienne’s 2024 rushing stats.
New head coach Liam Coen might prefer Etienne to Bigsby. Yet, both players got snaps in the preseason with the starters, and both worked with the starters in training camp. Thus, I’ll throw my support in GPPs behind the running back coming off a superior season as a runner.
Still, my favorite options from the Jaguars are their passing attack players. Jacksonville’s signal-caller will appear below. Carolina’s ineptitude against the run masked their inability to defend the pass. The Panthers allowed the second-most EPA per pass in 2024. If Carolina’s run defense improves from a mammoth dumpster fire to a controlled dumpster burn, the Jaguars might opt to pick them apart through the air.
Brian Thomas Jr. had a dazzling rookie debut. Although he also produced elite receiving production compared to all players last year, not merely the other rookies. Among 91 receivers with at least 250 routes in the regular season last year, Thomas was 18th in air yards share (33.9%), 18th in target share (23.6%), tied for 14th in targets per route run (0.26), tied for 12th in receptions (87), ninth in receiving yards per game (75.4), seventh in yards per route run (2.56) and tied for fifth in touchdown receptions (10). BTJ can explode this week.
The Jaguars traded up for Travis Hunter. The two-way rookie won the Heisman Trophy last year after piling up snaps on both sides of the ball. Hunter will attempt to play offense and defense in the NFL as well, but he’s projected to play the bulk of his snaps on offense early this year. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Hunter had the following stats in his final collegiate season at Colorado.
- 121 targets
- 0.24 targets per route run
- 96 receptions (7.4 per game)
- 1,258 receiving yards (96.8 per game)
- 2.51 yards per route run (Y/RR)
- 10.6-yard average depth of target (aDOT)
- 4.9 yards after the catch per reception (YAC/REC)
- 15 touchdown receptions
Hunter combined field-stretching ability with run-after-the-catch skills. He was targeted at all levels of the field, as evidenced by his 20 targets behind the line of scrimmage, 50 zero to nine yards, 24 targets 10 to 19 yards and 27 targets 20-plus yards downfield in 2024. I don’t love Hunter as a standalone selection on a WR-rich DFS slate, but he’s an intriguing option as part of double-stacks with his signal-caller.
The only team that allowed more EPA per pass last year than the Panthers was the Jaguars. Jacksonville signed cornerback Jourdan Lewis from the Cowboys, and Tyson Campbell is an impact talent at the position who missed five games for Jacksonville last year. He’s healthy now, and the Jaguars shouldn’t open the year as the NFL’s worst pass defense. Nevertheless, they have a steep climb to even average, and Bryce Young ended his 2024 season on a heater.
After Carolina’s Week 11 bye last season, Young was the QB8 in fantasy points per game (21.2) among those who played more than one game. During Young’s fabulous flurry to conclude 2024, he averaged 226.1 passing yards per game with 11 passing touchdowns, three interceptions, 25.4 rushing yards per game and five rushing touchdowns. His dual-threat ability makes him an intriguing GPP pick, namely at DraftKings.
The runout is pure for Tetairoa McMillan‘s NFL debut after the Panthers traded Adam Thielen shortly before the season and Jalen Coker landed on the Injured Reserve (IR) over the weekend. Among the FBS wideouts in 2024 with at least 50 targets from this year’s NFL Draft class, McMillan had PFF’s ninth-highest receiving grade, the fourth-most targets (130), the eighth-most receptions (84), the second-most receiving yards (1,316), the 10th-most yards per route run (2.87) and eight receiving touchdowns. Young should pepper his new big-bodied pass-catching weapon with many targets, and McMillan is tied for the second-highest value score among wideouts at DraftKings and sitting atop the position in value score at FanDuel. McMillan should be a staple in cash games, and he’s an outstanding choice in GPPs, too.
Ja’Tavion Sanders isn’t an enticing pick at FanDuel. However, he’s the cheapest viable punt at tight end in a talent-deficient pass-catching corps. Sanders had at least three receptions in six of 16 games and at least 35 receiving yards in five games. Those aren’t eye-popping numbers, but they illustrate Sanders wasn’t a total dud in his rookie campaign.
Core Studs
- Christian McCaffrey looked like he would get a fresh slate after last year’s nightmare season. He was healthy all offseason until a limited practice session on Thursday with a calf injury. There will be more clarity about the severity of CMC’s injury during San Francisco’s final practice and when they release their injury report. I’m keeping him as a placeholder as a core stud in case Thursday’s limited practice was cautionary. CMC led the NFL in scrimmage yards (2,023) and rushing plus receiving touchdowns (21) in 2023. In 31 games for the 49ers, CMC has averaged 77.6 rushing yards per game, 4.3 receptions per game, 37.9 receiving yards per game and scored 31 touchdowns. So, if McCaffrey fully participates in the final practice of the week, he’ll remain a core stud. If he’s limited, he’ll be a usable GPP option, but gamers should be prepared for a late swap in case he’s inactive.
- James Conner was fantastic last year. He recorded 68.4 rushing yards per game, 4.64 yards per carry, a 6.8% explosive run rate, 0.29 missed tackles forced per attempt, eight rushing touchdowns, 2.9 receptions per game, 25.9 receiving yards per game and one receiving touchdown. The Cardinals are one of the largest favorites on the week, laying 6.5 points to the host Saints. Conner should be fed the rock early and often against a defense that yielded the seventh-most DraftKings points per game (25.6) and the eighth-most FanDuel points per game (22.5) to running backs in 2024.
- Drake London was a monster in Michael Penix Jr.‘s three starts to conclude the 2024 season. In those three games, London had 39 targets, a 39% target share, 0.41 targets per route run, 50.6% air yards share, 22 receptions (7.3 per game), 352 receiving yards (117.3 per game), 3.74 Y/RR, six end-zone targets, two receiving touchdowns, 24.1 DraftKings points per game, 20.4 FanDuel points per game and 25.3 expected fantasy points per game.
Value Plays/Punts
- Many onlookers scratched their heads when the Buccaneers spent the 19th pick in the NFL Draft on Emeka Egbuka. The revelation of Godwin’s second surgery for his ankle made the selection more understandable. Additionally, Egbuka is coming off a decorated collegiate career, finishing with the most receptions and the second-most receiving yards in Ohio State history while playing with many top-shelf prospects. Egbuka had 106 targets (0.26 targets per route run), 81 receptions (5.1 per game), 1,011 receiving yards (63.2 per game), 2.51 Y/RR and 10 receiving touchdowns in 16 games for the Buckeyes last year. The runway is clear for him to dominate targets with Evans in Week 1, resulting in Egbuka having the highest value score at WR on DraftKings and the second-highest value score at the position on FanDuel.
- Jacksonville’s implied total of 25.5 points is the third-highest this week, and Trevor Lawrence is leading the offense. Mayfield kicked his production up a notch with Coen as his offensive coordinator in 2024 after reviving his career with Dave Canales as his offensive coordinator in 2023, and T-Law can be Coen’s next success story. As I noted above, the Panthers allowed the second-most EPA per pass last year, and even being slightly better against the run could prompt the Jaguars to pick on them through the air. Finally, the Jaguars traded up to add Hunter, in part, to give Lawrence another game-changing weapon and maximize his chances of putting it together in the NFL. Lawrence has the highest value score among quarterbacks at DraftKings, and he’s tied for the fourth-highest value score at the position on FanDuel in Week 1.
- Jayden Reed is battling through a Jones fracture in his left foot. Romeo Doubs is an adequate starting wide receiver, and Matthew Golden is a rookie wideout. Tucker Kraft has a legitimate path to leading Green Bay’s pass-catching corps in targets in Week 1. Among 41 tight ends with at least 200 routes run in the 2024 regular season, Kraft was seventh in yards per route run (1.90), second in yards per target (10.88) and first in yards after the catch per reception (9.38 YAC/REC). Kraft had an adequate 0.17 targets per route run, 50 receptions (2.9 per game), 707 receiving yards (41.6 per game) and seven receiving touchdowns. Even if he doesn’t see a massive uptick in usage, Kraft can deliver value at his salaries on DraftKings and FanDuel. However, he has the upside to generate massive excess value on his salary if Kraft has a more prominent role in Green Bay’s passing attack.
Week 1 Top 3 Underdog Player Props
Drake London: 75.5 Receiving Yards – Higher
A three-game sample shouldn’t be treated as gospel. Still, allow me to repeat London’s absurd numbers in Penix’s three starts. Atlanta’s No. 1 wideout had 39 targets, a 39% target share, 0.41 targets per route run, 50.6% air yards share, 22 receptions (7.3 per game), 352 receiving yards (117.3 per game) and 3.74 Y/RR in the lefty gunslinger’s three starts. Additionally, Tampa Bay had the biggest pass-funnel defense in the NFL last year, with a 63% situation-neutral pass rate against them.
James Conner: 68.5 Rushing Yards – Higher
The Saints surrendered the sixth-most rushing yards per game (110.0) to running backs in 2024, and New Orleans is a 6.5-point underdog, setting the stage for Conner to eat. In seven wins last season, Conner steamrolled the opposition for 87.4 rushing yards per game at 4.90 yards per carry.
Cam Ward: 12.45 Fantasy Points – Lower
Denver’s vaunted defense was tied for the eighth-fewest fantasy points per game (15.7) allowed to quarterbacks last season. Cam Ward will have his hands full in his first NFL start against an elite defense. I must tip my hat to Underdog’s Hayden Winks for highlighting Denver’s defense’s dominance at home in September. According to StatHead, the Broncos have held six of eight opponents to 16 points or fewer in Denver in September since 2020, allowing an average of 16.5 points per game, with a median of 15. It will be challenging for Ward to clear 12.45 fantasy points if Denver’s defense is as stifling as they’ve been at home in September in the previous five years.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
