My season ledger for bold predictions sits at 3-12 through five weeks. I nailed one of my three bold predictions last week, with David Montgomery finishing as a top-12 running back in Week 5.
Even my misses were directionally accurate, as Dalton Kincaid hauled in all six of his targets for 108 receiving yards, but couldn’t crack the top five of tight ends and Tetairoa McMillan had the second-best game of his career, albeit falling short of 13 half-PPR points. I’ve yet to get more than one bold prediction correct in a week through five weeks. Yet, this week is as good as any to snap that streak.
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Week 5 Fantasy Football Bold Predictions
Medium
J.K. Dobbins Will Reach 100 Scrimmage Yards
J.K. Dobbins started the season with 63 rushing yards, one rushing touchdown, two receptions and five receiving yards. Those 68 scrimmage yards in Week 1 were comfortably the fewest he had in a game this season. Dobbins has played well and has taken over Denver’s backfield.
Dobbins has amassed 85, 83, 105 and 84 scrimmage yards on 16, 13, 17 and 21 opportunities (rush attempts plus targets), respectively. According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, among 47 running backs with at least 25 rush attempts this year, Dobbins is sixth in rushing yards per game (80.4), seventh in yards per carry (5.22), third in yards before contact per attempt (2.95), 27th in yards after contact per attempt (2.27) and fourth in explosive run rate (9.1%).
Conversely, after starting Week 1 with a positive game script against the Steelers, allowing them to hold Pittsburgh’s rushing attack in check, Gang Green has wilted against the run. The Jets have permitted 162.3 rushing yards per game and 4.74 yards per carry since Week 2.
The Broncos are 7-point favorites abroad and should pummel the Jets. As a result, I expect Dobbins to steamroll them and accumulate 100+ scrimmage yards this week.
Hot
Tory Horton Will Outscore Cooper Kupp and Travis Hunter in Half-PPR Formats
Cooper Kupp is ranked as the WR42 in half-PPR expert consensus rankings (ECR), and Travis Hunter is the WR48. Meanwhile, Tory Horton is the WR57. Interestingly, Horton’s eight half-PPR points per game this year are more than Kupp’s 6.5 and Hunter’s 5.2. However, since Horton runs fewer routes than Kupp and Hunter, he ranks behind them this week.
Horton should be busier than usual this week. According to RotoViz’s pace app, the Seahawks are tied for the fifth-lowest situation-neutral pass rate (52%) this year, but the Jaguars have faced the second-highest situation-neutral pass rate (66%). Teams have also attacked the Jaguars deep.
Jacksonville is tied for the seventh-highest average depth of target (8.3-yard aDOT) against, tied for the eighth-highest deep-throw rate (12.2%) against and tied for the third-most deep throws (24) faced this season.
Sam Darnold is 15th in deep-throw rate (11.2%) and third in aDOT (9.1) among 34 quarterbacks with at least 75 dropbacks this year. Finally, Horton’s 13.9-yard aDOT is the deepest among players with more than two targets for the Seahawks. Horton can strut his stuff and outscore veteran teammate Kupp and fellow rookie Hunter, who’s opposing him.
Atomic
DJ Moore Will Lead Chicago’s Skill-Position Players in Rushing Yards
Readers of this week’s top storylines article might not be entirely blindsided by this atomic take. The Bears had their Week 5 bye to self-scout, and they can’t have enjoyed what they saw from D’Andre Swift. Among 47 running backs with at least 25 rush attempts this year, Swift is tied for 39th in yards per carry (3.34), 35th in yards before contact per attempt (1.52), 42nd in yards after contact per attempt (1.82), tied for 29th in stuff rate (50.0%), 34th in success rate (47.6%) in man/gap concepts and tied for 27th in success rate (44.1%) in zone concepts. Swift’s numbers are putrid.
Unfortunately, Chicago’s alternatives are limited. All of Roschon Johnson‘s snaps this year have come on special teams. Kyle Monangai would be a natural pivot from Swift. However, the rookie running back didn’t practice because of a thigh injury coming out of Chicago’s bye, which is a red flag.
Kyle Monangai dealing with a new injury (had been listed with a hamstring week 1). Don’t love seeing the DNP coming out of a bye week. https://t.co/HlA6LEOsbG
— Jeff Mueller, PT, DPT (@jmthrivept) October 9, 2025
One in-house option for Ben Johnson is to use DJ Moore in the backfield more often. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Moore has played 13 snaps aligned in the backfield, playing three in Week 1, zero in Week 2, eight in Week 3 and two in Week 4. Moore has carried the ball six times for 15 yards. Moore was also used in the backfield in training camp. Moore’s rushing attempts didn’t come out of thin air before Chicago’s bye.
Could they ramp up Moore’s rushing usage, both out of the backfield or on jet sweeps? Maybe. It would also be fitting for Moore to be used more often in Chicago’s backfield in a game against Deebo Samuel.
From a more actionable standpoint, it could make personnel sense to use Moore in the backfield more frequently if they’re dissatisfied with Swift’s work. According to SumerSports, the Bears have used 11-personnel (one running back, one tight end and three wide receivers) groupings at the sixth-lowest rate (47.58%) this year.
If Johnson wants to continue to use other personnel groupings at a high rate while also incorporating Luther Burden more with Rome Odunze and Moore, he could use Moore at running back more often. In summary, it will be fascinating to see what changes the Bears make coming out of their bye, and an increase in rushing usage from Moore at Swift’s expense shouldn’t come as a surprise.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
