Just like that, the byepocalypse is over, and we are into the second half of the fantasy football season. It feels like just yesterday I was worried about the sample size of the Fantasy Points Allowed tool. Now, with eight weeks of data, we can pretty much take it at face value (except for a couple of teams that have dealt with significant injuries).
There are a few standout matchups, good and bad, at various positions this week that can genuinely turn bench options into must-starts or the other way around. Let’s break down who gets those matchups in Week 9.
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Fantasy Points Allowed: Best & Worst Matchups (Week 9)
Week 9 Quarterback Fantasy Football Matchups
Good Matchup: Kyler Murray (QB – ARI) @ Dallas Cowboys
One of the genuinely week-altering matchups so far this season has been the Cowboys’ defense against quarterbacks. The 25.4 points per game scored by “whoever is facing the Cowboys” is more than any individual quarterback has averaged this season.
This week, the lucky recipient of this juicy matchup is Kyler Murray, who will be playing his first game since Week 5 thanks to a foot sprain and Arizona’s bye week. Despite traditionally being an elite fantasy option, Murray has been undeniably mediocre this year, with just 16.2 points per game. But don’t let that dissuade you from starting him — he is a borderline must-start option in this matchup.
Bad Matchup: Bo Nix (QB – DEN) @ Houston Texans
Last week’s winner of the “gets to face the Cowboys” lottery, Bo Nix is coming off back-to-back big fantasy outings. Unfortunately, the sophomore is likely to come back to Earth this week.
Unlike their Texas counterparts, the Texans actually give up by far the fewest points per game to opposing quarterbacks, a measly 11.5. Especially given that Nix has had some down weeks to go with his big performances this season, I recommend benching him if you can find another option.
Week 9 Running Back Fantasy Football Matchups
Good Matchup: Kimani Vidal (RB – LAC) @ Tennessee Titans
The Titans aren’t an outlier-level soft matchup for running backs. That honor goes to the Bengals, but they face D’Andre Swift, a top-10 back in points per game, this week, so you don’t need me to tell you to start him. However, Tennessee is the second-easiest matchup for fantasy backs, giving up 26.4 points per game. They’re fine at defending opposing backs through the air, but they give up the second-most yards per game and fifth-most yards per carry to the position.
This sets up well for Kimani Vidal, who has firmly established himself as the Chargers’ primary rusher with Omarion Hampton sidelined. He only handled nine carries as the Chargers lost to the Colts in Week 7, but racked up 23 totes in a comfortable win over the Vikings last Thursday. L.A. is a 10-point favorite over the 1-7 Titans this week, so Vidal should have plenty of chances against this soft rush defense. Fire him up with confidence as an RB2.
Bad Matchup: Rico Dowdle (RB – CAR) @ Green Bay Packers
In each of the last two weeks, the Panthers have evenly alternated drives between Rico Dowdle and Chuba Hubbard. Hubbard took the first drive in each week, but from then on, they simply took turns, with neither ever touching the ball on the other’s drive. However, Dowdle was vastly more efficient in both games. Head coach Dave Canales’ comments after Sunday indicate he wanted to give Hubbard (a veteran and team captain) a shot, but will ride the hot hand of Dowdle more going forward.
Unfortunately, this does not mean you can plug Dowdle right into your lineups. For his first game as the Panthers’ likely RB1A, he gets a tough matchup with the Packers’ defense. Green Bay has allowed the third-fewest points per game, fourth-fewest rushing yards per game and second-fewest total touchdowns per game to opposing backs. The Panthers are also 12.5-point underdogs, so they are unlikely to have much work to go around in their backfield. Put it all together, and Dowdle is a risky play this week, even if he should be Carolina’s No. 1 RB.
Week 9 Wide Receiver Fantasy Football Matchups
Good Matchup: Jauan Jennings (WR – SF) @ New York Giants
Over the last two weeks, Jauan Jennings has reasserted himself as the 49ers’ No. 1 WR (at least, among their currently healthy receivers). He has led the team in route participation rate (81%), target share (24%) and air yards share (35%). However, that usage hasn’t turned into production — he scored just 5.1 points in Week 7 and 6.5 points in Week 8.
That should change this week, as Jennings and the 49ers face the Giants. Technically, New York’s defense is “only” the fifth-easiest matchup for receivers overall. But they rank second in receiving yards per game allowed to wideouts, a whopping 174.3. Jennings’ usage indicates he is due for some positive regression; this matchup just makes it more likely. He is a solid Flex or WR3 option this week.
Bad Matchup: Romeo Doubs (WR – GB)/Matthew Golden (WR – GB)/Christian Watson (WR – GB) vs. Carolina Panthers
It might have more to do with their offensive shortcomings than any defensive excellence, but the Panthers’ defense is the third-toughest matchup for wide receivers. They have also given up the third-fewest receptions and third-fewest receiving yards to the position, the only team to rank that low in both metrics.
Meanwhile, the Packers’ receiver room got even more crowded with the return of Christian Watson last week. We also know that Green Bay is more than happy to lean on their running game and Josh Jacobs in positive game scripts, which they should, given the aforementioned 12.5-point spread.
Week 9 Tight End Fantasy Football Matchups
Good Matchup: Colston Loveland (TE – CHI) @ Cincinnati Bengals
In Week 8, with Cole Kmet sidelined by a back injury, the 10th overall pick in this year’s NFL Draft set a new career high with a 76% route participation rate. However, that didn’t turn into too much production. Loveland saw just four targets for an 11% target share, catching three for 38 scoreless yards. He has yet to score even six half-PPR points in a given week.
However, Loveland gets an excellent shot to change that this week. The Bengals have allowed 18.5 points per game to opposing tight ends, 4.5 more than the third-softest team and 7.8 more than the median team. They have given up the third-most receptions, second-most yards and most touchdowns to opposing tight ends. If there was ever a week for the rookie to have a breakout, this is it (assuming Kmet remains sidelined). Loveland is a solid streaming option if you’re looking for tight end help.
Bad Matchup: Hunter Henry (TE – NE) vs. Atlanta Falcons
Eight weeks into the season, Hunter Henry has been his usual cromulent self. He is the TE7 in total points and the TE7 in points per game. However, you shouldn’t have him anywhere near your lineup this week.
The Falcons’ defense has shut down opposing tight ends to an absurd degree, allowing just 3.5 points per game. They’ve allowed an average of 1.71 catches for 15 yards to the position. To put it in perspective, that’s less than half of the amount the toughest tight end defense allowed per game last year (34.8 yards). Henry is normally a valid streaming option or even a weekly starter, but this is not the week to trust him.
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Ted Chmyz is a fantasy football contributor for FantasyPros.com. Find him on Twitter and Bluesky @Tchmyz for more fantasy content or to ask questions.
