Fantasy Football Start/Sit Advice: Safe & Risky Picks (Week 9)

Let’s take a look at some of the players with the largest standard deviation between high and low expert ranks in FantasyPros’ expert consensus rankings (ECR). Which players are the safest starts, and who poses the biggest risk to your fantasy football lineup in Week 9?

Fantasy Football Start/Sit Advice

Week 9 Risky Fantasy Football Starts

Rico Dowdle (RB – CAR) vs. Green Bay Packers

Highest Rank: RB18
Lowest Rank: RB27

Fantasy managers were riding the high of Rico Dowdle and his 30+ point fantasy performances, hoping he’d retain the job. On the other hand, Chuba Hubbard‘s managers were anticipating his return, hoping he’d reclaim his role as the lead back. Both sides were dealt a blow with an unappealing committee that has significantly limited the upside and reliability of both running backs.

However, Dowdle has continued to outperform Hubbard, and fantasy managers aren’t the only ones who’ve noticed. Dave Canales spoke on the backfield this week, and while his wording wasn’t specific, it did imply we could see a potential shift toward a more reliable workload for Dowdle.

Still, because we haven’t been outright told there will be specific changes, Dowdle remains a risky play this week, with snaps favoring Hubbard in the past two matchups. If the Panthers adjust and increase Dowdle’s snaps, he would likely excel. He’s averaging 5.71 yards per carry and ranks in the top five in NFL Next Gen Stats in both efficiency and rushing yards over expected. Dowdle is a risk until we get confirmation on this week’s backfield share.

My Projected Finish: RB20

Jacory Croskey-Merritt (RB – WSH) vs. Seattle Seahawks

Highest Rank: RB24
Lowest Rank: RB32

Despite extreme volatility and a low floor, fantasy managers continue to lean into Jacory Croskey-Merritt. In eight games, he’s managed to hit double-digit fantasy points just three times, and in one of those games, he barely hit double-digit points. Croskey-Merritt’s success isn’t matchup-based. He’s underperformed against excellent matchups in Chicago and Dallas. His best performances have come in the three games that Washington won.

The Commanders only trust Croskey-Merritt on the ground at this point, so in games where the Commanders are playing from behind, his upside will naturally be capped. However, the bigger problem is that those wins were lopsided, and in relatively close games where the Commanders didn’t abandon the run, he still underperformed.

Even with the return of Jayden Daniels, a matchup against Seattle this week doesn’t fit the typical scenario for a Croskey-Merritt boom game. He remains a high-risk, low-floor play.

My Projected Finish: RB28

Jauan Jennings (WR – SF) vs. New York Giants

Highest Rank: WR27
Lowest Rank: WR42

Outside of one top-12 finish in Week 2, Jauan Jennings has failed to exceed eight fantasy points in any game this season. There’s good news and bad news. Over the past two weeks, he has resumed his role as the 49ers’ No. 1 WR. Unfortunately, that has become a meaningless title with the 49ers leaning heavily on Christian McCaffrey, both on the ground and through the air. The Giants have fallen apart against the pass, allowing significant fantasy production over the past several weeks.

The biggest issue with this matchup is that it’s not just the pass; the Giants have been reeling against the run, and San Francisco will likely lean into McCaffrey again. If the 49ers can’t get an uptick in pass volume, we’re heading toward another disappointing performance for Jennings.

Given the injuries and bye weeks, fantasy managers might have to turn to him as a Flex option because he is actually the lead receiver on his team. However, he lacks stability, is playing through multiple injuries and there are likely better options with higher upside available this week.

My Projected Finish: WR39

More Risky Starts

Week 9 Safe Fantasy Football Starts

Caleb Williams (QB – CHI) vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Highest Rank: QB8
Lowest Rank: QB12

Caleb Williams being a safe streaming option at quarterback this week is very indicative of our current state at fantasy quarterbacks. However, his matchup against Cincinnati helps lower the risk. Williams has been underwhelming in what should’ve been strong matchups over the past several weeks, particularly against Baltimore and New Orleans. His best performance of the year, though, where he finished as the overall QB1, was against Dallas. The Bengals’ defense offers a similar profile to the Cowboys, and they could be without Trey Hendrickson again.

Williams’ general inconsistency has been perplexing this season. He plays in an excellent offensive scheme, he has a relatively easy schedule, he has a bevy of weapons and he has a subpar defense that should allow him the opportunity to thrive on volume. Yet, he has failed to have a 300-yard game, and the rushing upside he flashed in Week 1 has all but disappeared.

While Williams may put up a fantasy dud in this matchup, we’re talking about a defense that allowed Justin Fields to nearly triple his production of the prior two weeks combined. Williams is a legitimate top-10 option this week.

My Projected Finish: QB9

Josh Downs (WR – IND) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Highest Rank: WR35
Lowest Rank: WR44

Jonathan Taylor is thriving, Michael Pittman is a clear WR1 and Alec Pierce has been rising in popularity in fantasy rankings. However, Josh Downs is going a bit overlooked in terms of the consistency and reliability that he has offered over the past three games — double-digit PPR points in each and two touchdowns.

Downs is not recording high-volume performances, but he’s been incredibly efficient overall and is doing just enough to warrant the label of being a safe play. That is particularly true this week against a Pittsburgh defense that has been incredibly generous from a pass perspective.

Pittsburgh has given up the second-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks and the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, a notable statistic considering they faced only one top-tier fantasy quarterback. Flex options are condensed this week because of the lack of running backs. A wide receiver with a fairly safe floor is a good pivot. Downs is currently questionable; if he is ruled out, Pierce would be the safe start.

My Projected Finish: WR35

Tyjae Spears (RB – TEN) vs. Los Angeles Chargers

Highest Rank: RB27
Lowest Rank: RB32

On the surface, Tyjae Spears might not seem like a safe option, considering that he is technically not actually a lead back and he’s in a committee that should theoretically lean more toward Tony Pollard. However, Spears has been fairly reliable since returning from injury this season because he’s a consistent presence in the pass game. Spears has had a minimum of three receptions over the past three games and has finished as the fantasy RB21, RB32 and RB12 in full PPR over that stretch.

It’s not much, but if you compare it to the aforementioned Jacory Croskey-Merritt, whose floor is legitimately one fantasy point, you can understand why Spears is truly a safe option. Spears did have a one-point performance in his first game back from injury this season in Week 5.

However, it was very clear he was on limited work and played just 25% of snaps as he was being eased into action. This week’s matchup against the Chargers will likely be a blowout, meaning we should see a solid baseline of pass volume for Spears.

My Projected Finish: RB27