Washington Commanders vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Commanders Players & Weekly Rankings
| Marcus Mariota | QB | QB2 |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | RB | RB2 |
| Jeremy McNichols | RB | RB4 |
| Terry McLaurin | WR | WR3 |
| Deebo Samuel | WR | WR1/2 |
| Luke McCaffrey | WR | WR5 |
| Zach Ertz | TE | TE1/2 |
Chiefs Players & Weekly Rankings
| Patrick Mahomes II | QB | QB1 |
| Isiah Pacheco | RB | RB3 |
| Kareem Hunt | RB | RB4 |
| Brashard Smith | RB | RB3 |
| Rashee Rice | WR | WR1 |
| Xavier Worthy | WR | WR2/3 |
| Hollywood Brown | WR | WR4/5 |
| Travis Kelce | TE | TE1 |
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
N/A
Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider
Let’s fill out those flex spots.
Marcus Mariota will be under center for Washington this week. In his two starts this season, he finished as the QB6 and QB17 in weekly scoring. He averaged 30 rushing yards with a rushing score. Among 41 qualifying passers, with his rushing equity, Mariota ranks second in fantasy points per dropback, but he’s also 14th in yards per attempt, 27th in highly accurate throw rate, and dead last in catchable target rate. Mariota might outpace my expectations this week in a high-scoring game environment and with Washington likely trailing, but it won’t be an easy week for him. Kansas City has allowed the 11th-fewest yards per attempt, the third-fewest passing yards per game, the second-fewest passing touchdowns, and they rank 15th in success rate per dropback.
Isiah Pacheco continues to be a massive disappointment. Since Week 5, he has averaged 14 touches and 53.7 total yards. Across the last three games, he has had a 64.1% snap rate with weekly scoring finishes as the RB31, RB36, and RB17. He’s basically a flex play, and if he gets into the endzone, maybe you luck box into RB2 production for the week. Pacheco remains an inefficient rusher with a 12% missed tackle rate and 2.21 yards after contact per attempt. Pacheco has another plus matchup this week that he’ll likely disappoint with. Washington has allowed the 12th-most rushing yards per game, the ninth-highest explosive run rate, and the seventh-highest yards after contact per attempt.
Yes, last week Brashard Smith finished with 19 touches and 81 total yards as the RB14 for the week, but much of that production was in garbage time. Smith has juice, but it hasn’t translated into efficiency in the early down department, yet. He has only a 5% missed tackle rate and 1.45 yards after contact per attempt, but that’s with only 22 carries. As a receiving option, he has a 7.3% target share, a 51% target per route run rate, 3.49 yards per route run, and 0.143 first downs per route run. Last week, in the first half, Smith played 26.2% of the snaps with a 27.6% route share and a 16.7% target share (four targets). Smith is a viable flex this week in PPR formats. Washington has allowed the fifth-most receiving yards and the third-highest yards per reception to running backs.
Last week, in the first half of the game, Worthy led the team with a 69% route share while seeing a 12.5% target share and 14.3% first-read share. With Rashee Rice back last week, everyone else in the passing attack took a step back as Rice reinserted himself as Kansas City’s clear WR1. Since Worthy’s return in Week 5, he has had a 16% target share, 32.3 receiving yards per game (1.08 yards per route run), and a 16% first-read share. He has four red zone targets and three deep targets during that stretch. Worthy is a decent flex play this week. Washington has allowed the 13th-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
It’s another nice coverage matchup for Ertz against his week. Ertz is the TE14 in fantasy points per game with two TE1 performances this season (TE2, TE5). Ertz has five red zone targets and zero deep targets this season. This week, he faces a Kansas City defense that has the fourth-highest two-high rate in the NFL (58.5%). Against two high, Ertz has a 22.9% target share, 2.15 yards per route run, and a 34.24% first-read share. He’ll get plenty of volume this week, but the matchup is rough as Kansas City has allowed the second-fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to tight ends.
Concerning Starts & Players to Fade
Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt is the RB32 in fantasy points per game. Since Week 5, he has averaged 16 touches and 83.3 total yards. Across the last three games, his offensive line and game scripts haven’t done him any favors. Since Week 5, Washington’s offensive line has generated the seventh-fewest adjusted yards before contact per attempt. Among 57 qualifying backs, Bill still ranks tenth in explosive run rate and eighth in yards after contact per attempt. Bill appears headed for another down day in Week 8. Kansas City has allowed the 11th-lowest yards after contact per attempt and explosive run rate, and the fifth-lowest missed tackle rate.
Terry McLaurin will be back this week. He practiced in full all week and doesn’t carry an injury designation into this week’s game. In McLaurin’s two full games this season, he finished as the WR70 and WR47 in weekly scoring. In Weeks 1-2, McLaurin had an 18.1% target share with 37.5 receiving yards per game (0.96 yards per route run), and 27.9% first-read share. This week, he’ll face a Chiefs’ secondary that has the fourth-highest two-high rate in the NFL (58.5%). In Weeks 1-2, against two high, McLaurin had a 5.7% target share, 0.68 yards per route run, and a 5.3% first-read share. I’m sitting McLaurin this week. The coverage matchup isn’t in his favor, and Kansas City has limited perimeter wide receivers to the ninth-fewest PPR points per target this season.
*Last week, yes, the Chiefs played in a blowout, but in the first half, only Xavier Worthy, Travis Kelce, and Rashee Rice had route shares above 48%. Kansas City will likely continue to rotate receiving options all game as the WR3 with Marquise Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Tyquan Thornton all getting snaps. Brown, Smith-Schuster, and Thornton are all unplayable now, with their playing time up in the air weekly.*
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*All data utilized in this article is courtesy of Fantasy Points Data, PFF, FTN, rbsdm.com, and Playerprofiler.com unless otherwise specified.*
