I was 8-22 (.267) on my bold predictions entering Week 11. Fortunately, it was my best week of bold predictions this year. Woody Marks didn’t produce at least 80 scrimmage yards and a touchdown against the Titans. However, Christian Watson was the WR5 in half-PPR scoring last week, putting him comfortably in the top 30 of wideouts. Finally, Lamar Jackson was the QB29, meaning he wasn’t a top-12 fantasy signal caller against the Browns. As a result, my season record now sits at 10-23, pushing my batting average to .303. My goal is to maintain a batting average north of .300 on bold predictions the rest of the year, which means I’ll need at least one successful bold prediction this week.
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Week 12 Fantasy Football Bold Predictions
Medium
The Raiders D/ST Will Have at Least Five Sacks + Turnovers
The Raiders a a superb streaming option on defense this week. Shedeur Sanders is a sack-taking machine. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), he was tied for the most sacks taken (41) in the FBS last year. He took an eye-popping seven sacks on only 38 dropbacks (18.4%) in the preseason.
Sanders was a trainwreck in relief of a concussed Dillon Gabriel last week. Sanders was sacked twice on 21 dropbacks against the Ravens. Among 48 quarterbacks with at least 20 dropbacks this year, Sanders had PFF’s lowest passing grade and highest turnover-worthy play rate (14.3%). He had three turnover-worthy plays. Sanders will take sacks and put the ball in harm’s way this week, which will lead to the Raiders producing at least five sacks + turnovers.
Hot
Alvin Kamara Will Finish as a Top-18 RB in Half-PPR
Father Time gets the best of everyone, and it looks like it’s gotten the best of Alvin Kamara. He’s the RB39 in half-PPR scoring this season. Furthermore, Kamara is the RB24 in expert consensus rankings (ECR). However, he had a season-high 13 half-PPR points in Week 10, finishing as the RB17 before New Orleans’ bye.
Kamara was treated as a workhorse in a 17-7 victory in Week 10, toting the rock 22 times and securing all three of his targets. His hefty workload led to 115 scoreless scrimmage yards.
The Saints are 2.5-point favorites at home this week. Kamara should have a favorable game script to tote the rock against a lousy run defense. According to the Fantasy Points data suite, Atlanta has allowed the third-most rushing yards per game (163) and six rushing touchdowns since Week 7.
Per Pro-Football-Reference, the Falcons have also allowed the 11th-most receptions per game (4.8) and the 10th-most receiving yards per game (34.8) to running backs this season. Therefore, even if the Saints find themselves in a negative game script, Kamara can score some points through the air.
According to the Fantasy Points data suite, Kamara has had a 49.1% route participation rate, 0.21 targets per route run (TPRR), four receptions, and 35 receiving yards in Tyler Shough‘s two starts. Kamara should be busy as a do-it-all back and take advantage of the matchup and finish as a top-18 running back in half-PPR formats this week.
Atomic
Adonai Mitchell Will Finish as a Top-48 WR in Half-PPR
Adonai Mitchell hasn’t come close to living up to his prospect billing as a second-round pick, and now he’s attached to Tyrod Taylor in an anemic passing attack. It’s not a recipe for fantasy football success, and Mitchell is the WR62 in half-PPR ECR.
The ranking is logical. Yet Mitchell’s underlying data from his first game with the Jets and his schematic matchup against the Ravens are reasons for optimism. In Mitchell’s first game for Gang Green, he had a 60.6% route participation rate, 53.3% air yards share, 22.2% target share, 0.30 TPRR and 40% first-read rate, but he turned his tasty underlying data into only one reception for 10 yards, with an inexcusable three drops. If Mitchell can tighten up the drops, he can succeed against the Ravens.
According to the Fantasy Points data suite, the Ravens have played man coverage at the seventh-highest rate (35.5%) and single-high coverage at the third-highest rate (60%) this year. Mitchell, albeit on small samples, has done well against man and single-high coverage. The speedy second-year pro has 0.50 TPRR and 2.89 yards per route run (YPRR) on 18 routes against man and 0.34 TPRR and 3.34 YPRR on 38 routes against single-high coverage.
Last year, Mitchell had 0.44 TPRR and 2.60 YPRR on 57 routes against man and 0.35 TPRR and 3.19 YPRR on 89 routes against single-high coverage. Finally, the Ravens have allowed the ninth-most fantasy points per game (29.3) to wide receivers this year. There are enough positives for Mitchell to finish as a top-48 wideout in half-PPR formats this week.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
