Friday afternoons are my opportunity to connect with FantasyPros readers and the FantasyPros Discord community. If you haven’t already done so, be sure to join our Discord to get answers to your questions. I host weekly AMAs on Fridays, and other analysts also routinely answer questions. Below were three standout topics from Friday’s busy Week 13 AMA.
- Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Pickups
- Weekly Fantasy Football Expert Rankings
- Fantasy Football Start/Sit Advice
- Fantasy Football Trade Tools
Discord AMA: Week 13
Can Rico Dowdle Overcome a Challenging Matchup?
Rico Dowdle was the subject of many start-or-sit questions. Unfortunately, he has a brutal matchup this week. The Rams have allowed the second-fewest half-point per reception (half-PPR) points per game (14.5) to running backs this season. Additionally, the Panthers are 10.5-point underdogs, meaning the game script will likely be unfavorable for Dowdle.
The context is dreadful. Nevertheless, Dowdle has been the RB5 in half-PPR points per game (17.6) since Week 5. He’s played well, will get fed as a runner until the Panthers are behind by multiple scores and can rack up some dump-offs from a negative game script. Dowdle is the RB17 in half-PPR expert consensus rankings (ECR), and treating him as a borderline top-20 running back is appropriate.
What’s the Outlook for RJ Harvey?
RJ Harvey is directly behind Dowdle in the ECR, and I slightly prefer Denver’s rookie running back to Dowdle. Unfortunately, Harvey had just 6.5 half-PPR points in Week 11, without J.K. Dobbins. It wasn’t an ideal showing in his first opportunity to dominate the backfield.
Nonetheless, Harvey had a 61% snap share and handled 11 of the backfield’s 17 (64.7%) rush attempts against the Chiefs in Week 11. According to the Fantasy Points data suite, Harvey’s 34.1% route participation rate in Week 11 was markedly higher than Tyler Badie‘s 12.2% and Jaleel McLaughlin‘s 4.9%.
The bye week allowed Sean Payton to self-scout and possibly find the best ways to maximize what Harvey does well. The rookie running back should also have a favorable game script, and he has a sweet matchup. The Broncos are 5.5-point favorites, and the Commanders have yielded the fourth-most half-PPR points per game (28.3) to running backs since Week 8. Harvey’s RB18 ECR is a little lower than I’d have him and view him closer to a borderline top-12 player at his position, making him a must-start option.
Should Gamers Roll With Oronde Gadsden?
The two most significant threats to Oronde Gadsden’s fantasy outlook this week are the Joe Alt-less offensive line causing the offense to crater, and the 9.5-point-favored Chargers taking the air out of the ball with a massive lead. The rookie tight end has scored fewer than 10 half-PPR points in three straight games after breaking out for 25.9 and 16.2 in Week 7 and Week 8.
Thankfully, he has a get-right matchup this week. According to the Fantasy Points data suite, the Raiders have played zone coverage at the highest rate (84.3%), single-high coverage at the 13th-highest rate (54%) and Cover 3 at the highest rate (46.3%). Gadsden has 0.22 targets per route run (TPRR) and 2.97 yards per route run (Y/RR) on 153 routes against zone, 0.23 TPRR and 1.96 Y/RR on 104 routes against single-high and 0.28 TPRR and 3.61 Y/RR on 46 routes against Cover 3 in his rookie campaign. Gadsden should be treated as a locked-in starter at tight end, and he can be used in the Flex on teams with another no-doubt starter, such as Trey McBride.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
