Fantasy Football NFL Air Yards Analysis & Takeaways (Week 10)

Analyzing NFL air yards for fantasy football is a valuable exercise for prognosticating what might be coming for certain receivers. If a wide receiver saw a tremendous number of air yards but fell entirely short on receiving yards and receptions, we could make an assumption that will regress in his favor in future games. Conversely, if a player saw a huge spike in receiving yards but did not see the corresponding air yards, that could mean a tremendous number of yards after the catch, which could always vary from week to week.

Looking at a player’s intended usage and not just the surface-level outcomes is a way to more accurately value players in fantasy football. I hope you will join me every week during the regular season for our breakdown of the week that was in fantasy football air yards.

NFL Air Yards Analysis & Fantasy Football Takeaways

Below we have a chart representing air yards and receiving data courtesy of the 4for4 Air Yards App. Air yards is a tool that is now freely accessible everywhere, and you can find the site or format that works best for you.

This list represents the top 50 wide receivers from most to fewest air yards. From Alec Pierce‘s 212 air yards all the way down to Mitchell Tinsley’s 49 air yards from this past week. Also included in this list are each player’s targets, receptions, average depth of target (aDOT), target share, and share of the team’s air yards.

Showcasing all these pieces of data together provides an opportunity for a quick review of this chart and yields a significant number of takeaways after Week 9. In this weekly piece of analysis, we will dig into the four biggest things that jump out to me from this week’s dataset.

Week 9 Air Yards and Air Yards% Data

Top Takeaways From Week 9 Air Yards Data

Troy Franklin‘s Breakout Continues

It may surprise you to learn that Troy Franklin is in the top 15 wide receivers in both air yards and receiving yards this season. Teammate Courtland Sutton is as well, and the Broncos host two of the top 25 in those two groups because Denver is seventh in pass attempts per game this season and has averaged 10.7 yards per completion in their last three games. Bo Nix has shaken off his early-season rust and is carving up the league again. We knew Sutton would be good, but after the last two weeks, Troy Franklin has entered the picture as a valuable weapon.

Franklin was second in air yards last week and seventh in air yards in Week 8, which led to six receptions for 89 yards and two touchdowns. He only caught four passes for 27 yards in Week 9, but the volume and usage were elite. Franklin’s target share is increasing as the season goes along. He has averaged eight targets per game in the last three, but perhaps the reason Franklin can be most valuable is in the red zone area. With 11 targets there, he is fourth among all wide receivers and sixth in red zone target share (32.4%).

Monitor Justin Jefferson Going Forward

Only one player had a lower average depth of target (aDOT) than Justin Jefferson in Week 9. His 6.3 aDOT on the week is much, much lower than his aDOT of 10.8 yards for the season. So the question becomes, was this an outlier game, or was this a J.J. McCarthy normal thing? Nine targets are great, but if they only lead to 47 yards because the aDOT is so low, that’s a problem.

What we don’t want is for the Minnesota offense to turn into one where they say, “We just have to get Justin Jefferson the ball,” and then design short crosses and curls for Jefferson and hope he can turn them upfield. We want Jefferson to get targets where he has burned his man downfield. Last week, his aDOT was just 7.3 yards, so I am officially a little concerned about this. Jefferson is not a possession receiver where you want him catching and dropping after eight yards. All fantasy football managers are holding their breaths that he can continue to get the ball farther downfield.

Better Days Coming for Tetairoa McMillan

The leader in air yards share in Week 9 was Tetairoa McMillan of the Carolina Panthers with 52.6%. That’s like a 99th percentile for the rookie wide receiver, but it didn’t really translate to the box score. McMillan finished the game with just four catches for 46 yards. The reason for this is that Bryce Young only threw for 102 yards in the entire game against Green Bay.

In games ahead, especially NFC South games in the domes, this number is likely to go way up for Bryce Young, and McMillan will be the primary beneficiary. This was the lowest target total of Young’s season, and he didn’t throw a touchdown in a start for the first time since Week 3. Green Bay is one of the toughest pass defenses in the league, but Carolina has New Orleans and Atlanta in three of their next five games. If anyone is selling low on McMillan before the fantasy trade deadline, I will be buying.

An Elite Marvin Harrison Jr. Game (Finally)

Now THAT’S what we have been waiting for with Marvin Harrison Jr. A 34.5% target share and a 43.2% air yards share. So what changed that finally allowed Harrison to get the elite usage fantasy football managers have been clamoring for? I’ll give you a hint. It starts with Jacoby and ends with Brissett. New quarterback Jacoby Brissett was laser-focused on Harrison (and Trey McBride) and fed them all game long.

Brissett has been around long enough to know that you simply get your best players the ball and let them make great plays. Now with Kyler Murray on the IR for at least four games, expect this kind of pattern to continue for Harrison. Despite playing just 72% of snaps, Harrison saw a season-high in targets and a season-high in red zone targets. Let’s see if Brissett can now give Harrison the first consistent elite stretch of his career.