With just a few weeks left until the playoffs begin in most fantasy football leagues, it’s more important than ever to set your best possible lineup every week. To make sure you do this, it’s important to consider matchups, and this is where the Fantasy Points Allowed tool comes in. Today, I’ll look at the best (and worst) matchups for borderline fantasy starters at every position in Week 12. Let’s get started.
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Fantasy Points Allowed: Best & Worst Matchups (Week 12)
Week 12 Quarterback Fantasy Football Matchups
Good Matchup: Jared Goff (QB – DET) vs. New York Giants
So far, Jared Goff’s fantasy production this season has been slightly disappointing. He has averaged just 17.8 points per game, the 16th-most at the position. And even that number potentially overrates his season, as he has only two weekly finishes as a top-10 quarterback and has finished as the QB19 or worse five times.
However, Goff is in a perfect spot for a bounce-back week. He faces the Giants, who allow the third-most points per game to opposing quarterbacks. And he does so at home in the domed confines of Ford Field, where he has historically been a more reliable fantasy option. Especially with four teams on bye, Goff is a legit QB1 candidate this week.
Bad Matchup: Baker Mayfield (QB – TB) @ Los Angeles Rams
Like Jared Goff, Baker Mayfield has been underwhelming as a fantasy option this season (this is the curse of the pocket passer). Despite being selected as the QB7 in preseason fantasy average draft position (ADP), he is just the QB14 in points per game. Mayfield’s career-high rushing numbers from 2024 have regressed slightly, and he has also been significantly less efficient through the air.
Unlike Goff, Mayfield has a tough matchup this week. Fresh off destroying Sam Darnold‘s short-lived MVP campaign, the Rams’ defense is the sixth-toughest matchup for fantasy quarterbacks. They allow the second-lowest expected points added (EPA) per dropback, and the only passers to record more than even 18 fantasy points against them are tush push merchant Jalen Hurts and Kyle Shanahan merchant Mac Jones (twice, lol). I would look elsewhere rather than starting Mayfield this week.
Week 12 Running Back Fantasy Football Matchups
Good Matchup: Woody Marks (RB – HOU) vs. Buffalo Bills
The fourth-round rookie out of USC has now served as the Texans’ clear No. 1 RB for each of the last two weeks. In that span, he has handled 32 carries on a 72% snap share — Nick Chubb has seen just eight on a 20% snap share.
Marks now faces a Bills defense that just gave up three touchdowns and over 30 points to Sean Tucker. For the season, Buffalo ranks second in each of fantasy points, yards per carry and yards per game allowed to opposing backs. No team has allowed more rushing touchdowns to the position.
The only potential issue here is that Marks might struggle to see volume if the Texans are blown out. C.J. Stroud has been ruled out already for this Thursday Night Football contest, and the Bills are six-point favorites. Houston’s team total is an ugly 18.5. With that in mind, Marks isn’t a must-start, but he’s still a more viable RB2 than you might think.
Bad Matchup: Tyrone Tracy Jr. (RB – NYG) @ Detroit Lions
He played second fiddle to Devin Singletary in the Giants’ first game without Cam Skattebo, but Tyrone Tracy Jr. has been New York’s No. 1 RB in each of the last two weeks. He performed particularly well on Sunday against a tough Packers defense, averaging over six yards per touch en route to 15.9 half-PPR points.
Unfortunately, Tracy has another matchup with a tough NFC North defense on tap this week. The Lions have allowed the second-fewest points per game to opposing backs; they are also the stingiest defense in terms of receiving yards given up to the position.
Aside from receiving work, the other most valuable kind of running back usage is goal-line work, and Tracy isn’t likely to see that either. Singletary has played all 10 of the Giants’ snaps and seen all seven backfield touches inside the opponent’s 5-yard line since Skattebo’s injury. Put it all together, and the sophomore back is not a particularly appealing starter this week.
Week 12 Wide Receiver Fantasy Football Matchups
Good Matchup: DeVonta Smith (WR – PHI) vs. Dallas Cowboys
I’m honestly not sure if this was worth saying. But I’ve seen plenty of anti-DeVonta Smith and/or anti-Eagles offense takes in fantasy spaces over the last week, so I’ll do it: Smith is a must-start against this atrocious Cowboys defense.
Yes, Smith only caught one pass for eight yards on Sunday night. But he’s a talented player with a good role, and nobody allows more points per game to wide receivers than Dallas. Get him in your lineup.
Bad Matchup: Khalil Shakir (WR – BUF) vs. Houston Texans
The Bills scored 44 points against the Buccaneers last week. Khalil Shakir, their theoretical top receiver, had one catch for -3 yards. This is the first problem with Shakir: Despite being Buffalo’s No. 1 WR, his role is simply not that good. He has averaged just a 20% target share and an 11% target share on a 72% route participation rate for the season. Last week, those numbers were 10%, 6% and 63%.
The other problem for Shakir this week is that the Texans’ defense has been tough on receivers all season. They give up the third-fewest points per game to the position, behind only the Broncos and Chargers (who both happen to be on bye this week).
Houston’s defense also allows just 7.4 points per game — the 11th-lowest total in the league — to wide receivers lined up in the slot, where Shakir has run 72% of his routes this season. Playing with Josh Allen means Shakir always has spike-week potential, but I’d recommend starting someone safer this week if you have that option.
Week 12 Tight End Fantasy Football Matchups
Good Matchup: Hunter Henry (TE – NE) @ Cincinnati Bengals
It’s almost impressive how much of an outlier the Bengals’ defense is when it comes to tight end defense. They’ve allowed 18.8 points per game to the position so far this season, while no other team is above 14.2. They also rank first in targets, yards and touchdowns allowed to the position, and second in receptions.
This all sets up perfectly for Hunter Henry. The veteran tight end has seen his role slightly reduced in the Patriots’ offense this season, averaging just a 16% target share. He has averaged a vaguely respectable 7.6 half-PPR points per game, but has just two weekly finishes inside the top 12 at the position. However, with this matchup, a third is likely on the horizon, making him a solid streaming option this week.
Bad Matchup: Dalton Schultz (TE – HOU) @ Buffalo Bills
I guess Week 12’s Thursday night game is one with plenty of extreme matchups, as this is the third player from that contest to feature in this article. However, this one is pretty straightforward. Dalton Schultz is a borderline TE1, worth starting in good matchups but not appealing in bad ones.
The Bills’ defense allows just 4.8 points per game to opposing tight ends, the lowest mark in the league. Even with his college teammate Davis Mills back under center, Schultz is not a trustworthy starter this week.
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Ted Chmyz is a fantasy football contributor for FantasyPros.com. Find him on Twitter and Bluesky @Tchmyz for more fantasy content or to ask questions.
