The current week of NFL DFS is always my favorite week. The slate is clean, and we are not forced to deal with our draft day mistakes as we do in managed seasonal leagues. It is all about honing in on value plays and which ones to slot in our DFS lineups.
This article aims to decipher values in the lobbies. It is not meant to be a roster builder. Instead, it will help identify key players priced below their production potential based on various factors for DraftKings and FanDuel.
This week, we have a 10-game slate due to holidays. Between the holidays and injuries, we have to dig a little deep for the value plays. Let’s get to it.
NFL DFS Value Plays: Week 13
Quarterbacks
Since assuming the mantle as the starter, all Jacoby Brissett has done is turn in QB1 performances. Going back to Week 7, Brissett has finished as the QB12, QB10, QB10, QB4 and QB8. In that span, he has thrown 11 passing touchdowns to only three interceptions and added an additional score on the ground. The price point does not reflect the production and he should be on the radar for DFS players.
The Buccaneers allow the eighth-most fantasy points to the quarterback position. On average, they surrender 262 passing yards and 1.7 passing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks. Since Week 6, Brissett has had only one game of fewer than two touchdown passes.
Brissett might not represent the highest ceiling, though he does utilize his legs to some degree. However, he represents a high-floor, especially in a plus-matchup, and he has some good stacking options available. He can be used in both cash and GPP contests for this slate.
Admittedly, I’m not in love with the price point versus potential production. However, I do really like Trevor Lawrence in this matchup. He has three QB1 performances over his last four games. In those games, he is averaging 209.6 passing yards, 1.67 passing touchdowns and 20.6 rushing yards, with three rushing touchdowns. While not reliable in managed fantasy leagues, Lawrence can be a value in DFS in the right matchup.
The Titans have not been abysmal, but they certainly are abysmal adjacent. They currently allow the 14th-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. They are allowing 236 passing yards and 1.5 passing touchdowns per contest. With a 41.5 projected total, there are reasons to invest in this matchup. It is also worth noting that Brian Thomas Jr. is expected to be back on the field for this contest, which only bolsters Lawrence’s appeal.
Lawrence is a GPP option for this slate.
Running Backs
Rookie Devin Neal stepped in for Alvin Kamara in last week’s matchup. He operated with work-horse volume, both between the tackles (7/18) and through the air (7/43), totalling 61 scrimmage yards. While his peripherals were not great as a runner, the volume and passing game involvement were both encouraging.
Neal is expected to maintain that same role this week, but for an entire game. That said, Taysom Hill will be involved in some goal-line situations. The Saints also elevated Audric Estime and Evan Hull from the practice squad. In other words, Neal will not be the only active back, but he does represent their sixth-round pick from this year’s draft and has been backing up Kamara. He should be the frontrunner for work out of this backfield.
The Dolphins allow the eighth-most fantasy points per game to running backs. They allow 113 rushing yards and 38 receiving yards per game to the position. Neal is a volume-based RB2 type of play for this slate whose value is bolstered by his pass-catching role. He is a better fit for GPP contests as opposed to cash games due to the volatility.
Unfortunately, for Chargers fans and Omarion Hampton fantasy managers, Hampton has been ruled out for this week. However, that gives Kimani Vidal one more week of lead-dog duties in this backfield. In six games as the starter, Vidal has three RB1 finishes. Over that span, he is averaging just over 17 touches per game for 75 scrimmage yards and has scored three times. During that stretch, he is the RB21 in fantasy points per game.
The Raiders, on the season, allow the 14th-most fantasy points to the position. It is nearly a neutral script versus running backs. The sledding may be tough, but the volume should carry Vidal to a place of value versus cost, amplified by scoring opportunities.
Vidal is better suited to GPP contests for this slate.
Wide Receivers
Khalil Shakir is in a good spot to beat his value versus his cost this week. On the season, he is the WR33 in fantasy points per game, averaging 11.9 per contest. He is maintaining a 20.3% target share and has eight red-zone targets this season. Shakir has had four games of WR2 or better production this season and three scores. Granted, his consistency has been up and down, but the target share and the trust in high-value situations have kept his floor relatively safe.
The Steelers allow the second-most fantasy production to the wide receiver position. On average, they surrender 184.5 receiving yards and one touchdown to receivers per game. Last week, they allowed two (almost three) Bears receivers to go over 50 yards, and DJ Moore scored twice. The way to beat the Steelers has been through the air with the wide receivers. They have allowed 13 wide receivers to either score or exceed 100 receiving yards this season, sometimes both.
Shakir has all the appearances of a great value play for this slate. He can be used in both cash and GPP contests. This game has a 45.5 projected total, meaning Vegas is expecting some scoring. Fire him up.
Tetairoa McMillan has emerged as the top threat in the Panthers’ passing attack. He has a 24.5% target share and averages 65.3 receiving yards per game. He is the WR19 in fantasy points per game in his rookie campaign.
McMillan has a bright future in this offense and elevates it, despite being in his first year as a pro. He has five touchdowns on the season and has scored twice in two games. Back in Week 11, McMillan was the overall fantasy WR1 when he hauled in eight passes for 130 yards and two scores. Ladies and gentlemen, we have established a ceiling.
The Rams are pesky when it comes to pressuring the quarterback, but far more neutral to receivers. They allow the 19th-most (or the 13th-fewest, depending on how one would like to view it) fantasy points to wide receivers. Again, not a schematically great matchup. However, the Panthers should find themselves playing from behind, and McMillan is the immediate beneficiary of a more pass-heavy game script.
Due to the strength of his role in the offense, even as a rookie, McMillan can be used in both cash and GPP contests. Due to cost and the inherent risk that comes with it, he is better utilized in GPP contests.
Tight Ends
Juwan Johnson was faring just fine in the fantasy streets, even with subpar quarterback play to start the season. He had two TE1 performances to start the season, followed by the mediocrity that came with catching, or trying to catch, passes from Spencer Rattler. Enter 26-year-old rookie Tyler Shough from stage left, and Johnson becomes healed of Rattler iniquities. Since Shough has assumed the mantle, Johnson has finished as a TE1 in three straight starts. He has scored twice in that span and is averaging 56.3 receiving yards per game.
The Dolphins allow the fifth-most fantasy points to tight ends. They allow an average of 69.1 receiving yards and 0.6 touchdowns to the position. This game features a 41.5 projected total, indicating some scoring will occur. Chris Olave, Juwan Johnson and Devin Neal represent the current pecking order.
Johnson can be used in both cash and GPP contests as a high-floor/high-ceiling option for this slate and is better suited for DraftKings’ full PPR scoring format. A touchdown is icing on an already baked cake.
Dalton Schultz is old enough to remember mixing his own Kool-Aid, and most likely with more than the recommended sugar amount. Currently, he is the TE11 in fantasy points per game, hanging on the fringe-TE1 group. He has done so on the back of an 18.2% target share, even with C.J. Stroud missing a few games.
Schultz only has one touchdown on the season, so I, the humble writer, am suggesting that regression (the positive kind) is on its way and will arrive shortly. He has only had three games with four or fewer targets. Schultz is averaging 45.1 receiving yards per contest. Crossing the chalk is like winter; it is coming.
The Colts allow the fourth-most fantasy points to tight ends. It is a position their defense has almost annually ignored. They also allow the third-most receiving yards (72.2) per game to tight ends.
Schultz is set up for a decent game and can be used in both cash and GPP contests this week.
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John Hesterman is a featured writer and Expert Consensus Ranker at FantasyPros. He also writes for DynastyLeagueFootball.com. For more from John, check out his archive and follow him on Bluesky @John-Hesterman or Twitter/X @John_Hesterman.
