I was 14-31 (.311) on my bold predictions entering Week 16. I didn’t have an elite showing in Week 16, but since the Titans were a top-12 D/ST, I nailed one of my bold predictions. As a result, I’m 15-33 (.313) this season. I must get at least one of the following three bold predictions correct to meet my goal of a batting average above .300 for the year. However, I’d love to go for the gusto and hit at least two, for a .333 or better batting average for the year on my bold predictions. Let’s look at my bold predictions for fantasy football championship week.
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Week 17 Fantasy Football Bold Predictions
Medium
Kenneth Walker Will Finish as a Top-18 RB in Half-PPR
Kenneth Walker is in fringe-RB2 territory in the half-PPR expert consensus rankings (ECR), slotting in as the RB24. However, he should be viewed as a mid-tier RB2 as a top-18 option against the Panthers this week.
According to the Fantasy Points data suite, the Seahawks are 25th in pass rate over expectation (-2.2% PROE) this year. Conversely, the Panthers are 22nd in PROE faced (-0.4%) this year. The game script should also be favorable for Walker’s outlook. The Seahawks are 7-point favorites against the Panthers.
Walker’s matchup is also favorable this week. First, the Panthers have allowed the ninth-most half-PPR points per game (23.4) to running backs since Week 12. Second, it’s a favorable schematic matchup for Walker.
According to the Fantasy Points data suite, the Panthers are tied for facing the 12th-most zone rushes (197) and have allowed the ninth-most rushing yards per game (59.4) at 4.52 yards per carry on zone runs. Walker has 105 zone runs for 526 yards and 5.01 yards per carry this year, versus 97 zo e rushes for 336 yards and 3.46 yards per carry for Zach Charbonnet.
Walker also has 81 carries for 328 yards at 4.05 yards per carry on man/gap concepts compared to 47 such carries for 191 yards and 4.06 yards per carry for Charbonnet, and the Panthers have coughed up 44.6 rushing yards per game and 4.71 yards per carry on 142 man/gap runs. Walker has a better skill set than Charbonnet for this matchup, and he should gash the Panthers and finish as a top-18 running back in half-PPR formats this week,.
Hot
Bucky Irving Will Not Finish as a Top-24 RB in Half-PPR
Bucky Irving is the RB16 in half-PPR ECR, and that’s too rich a ranking for a player getting squeezed at the margins. Since Week 15, Sean Tucker has six rush attempts (85.7%) and two touchdowns inside the 5-yard line. Rachaad White has one (14.3%) rush attempt inside the 5-yard line and zero touchdowns. Irving has zero rush attempts inside the 5-yard line.
Additionally, in those games, White paced Tampa Bay’s backfield in routes (40) and route participation rate (40%), followed by Irving (27 routes and 38.6% route participation rate) and Tucker (one route and 1.4% route participation rate). Irving logged 142 scoreless scrimmage yards and just one reception in the previous two games, good for 7.4 half-PPR points per game and 11.8 expected half-PPR points per game.
Irving has a middling matchup this week. The Dolphins are 16th in half-PPR points per game (20.5) allowed to running backs since Week 12. Irving’s yards are empty calories without more receptions or touchdowns. Gamers would be better off starting Kenneth Walker, Omarion Hampton, Kenneth Gainwell, Jaylen Warren, Josh Jacobs, D’Andre Swift, Tyrone Tracy Jr. or Tony Pollard over Irving. Yet, all are ranked behind him.
Atomic
Elijah Higgins Will be a Top-15 TE in Half-PPR
Elijah Higgins scored 12.6 half-PPR points last week against the Falcons, finishing as the fantasy TE8 after scoring fewer than six half-PPR points in every other contest. The initial feeling might be that the pop-up performance was a fluke. However, Higgins’ underlying data was intriguing, and he faces the Bengals this week.
Higgins had a 75.8% route participation rate, 22.6% target share, 0.28 targets per route run (TPRR), seven receptions, and 91 receiving yards last week. Higgins even had an eye-catching 21.1% first-read rate. Trey McBride should smash the Bengals, but Higgins can also eat in a mouthwatering matchup.
Cincinnati has allowed a league-high 18.6 half-PPR points per game to tight ends this season. Gamers waiting on news about George Kittle‘s availability for Sunday Night Football should scoop up Higgins as insurance. Ideally, Kittle’s availability will be known by Arizona’s 1:00 p.m. ET kickoff time.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
