Start em or sit em? Fantasy football start or sit decisions can be excruciating. While it feels great to make the right call and cruise to fantasy glory, it hurts just as much when you have someone erupt while on your bench. You can use our Who Should I Start? tool to gauge advice from fantasy football experts as you make your lineup decisions. And you can also sync your fantasy football league for free using our My Playbook tool for custom advice, rankings and analysis.
Let’s take a look at a few polarizing players and what fantasy football expert Derek Brown advises. And you can find all of DBro’s fantasy football outlook in this week’s fantasy football primer.
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Fantasy Football Start’em, Sit’em Lineup Advice
Start’Em
Since his Week 11 return, Brock Purdy has two QB1 weekly finishes (QB3, QB6). Since Week 11, among 37 qualifying quarterbacks, Purdy has ranked 15th in passing yards per game, 11th in highly accurate throw rate, 13th in catchable target rate, and eighth in passing touchdowns (tied). Purdy could spit out QB1 numbers again this week. Since Week 11, Indy has allowed the second-most passing yards per game and the tenth-most yards per attempt despite allowing the eighth-lowest adjusted completion rate. During that span they have also ranked 17th in pressure rate, so Purdy should have time to find open receivers this week.
HE DID IT! I didn’t think he could, BUT HE DID IT! Jacoby Brissett kept the streak alive last week. He has STILL finished as a QB1 in every start this season. Since Week 6, he has been the QB4 in fantasy points per game. Since Week 6, among 44 qualifying quarterbacks, Brissett has ranked first in passing yards per game, first in dropbacks (the next closest quarterback is 60 dropbacks behind him), second in passing touchdowns, 21st in highly accurate throw rate, and 26th in catchable target rate. Brissett should keep the QB1 train rolling along in Week 16. Since Week 11, Atlanta has allowed the fifth-most passing yards per game, the 12th-most yards per attempt, and the eighth-highest CPOE.
Since Week 5, in CJ Stroud’s seven starts, he has three QB1 finishes in weekly scoring (QB1, QB11, QB8). Since Week 5, among 41 qualifying quarterbacks, Stroud has ranked 17th in yards per attempt, 16th in passing yards per game, 33rd in highly accurate throw rate, and 35th in catchable target rate. Stroud could post another QB1 performance in Week 16. Since Week 11, the Raiders’ pass defense has fallen apart, giving up the sixth-most yards per attempt, the fourth-most passing touchdowns, the second-highest CPOE, and the second-highest success rate per dropback.
Mike Evans returns to the lineup, and Baker Mayfield sports his first 20-point fantasy outing since Week 10. A coincidence? I think not. Mayfield didn’t look like the same quarterback that came screaming out of the gate to begin the 2025 season, but it was a better showing than we have had from Mayfield in the last few weeks. Mayfield is still providing some rushing equity with at least 27 rushing yards in three of his last five games. Among 44 qualifying passers this season, he is 21st in passing yards per game, 29th in highly accurate throw rate, 28th in catchable target rate, and 11th in hero throw rate. Mayfield could post a QB1 stat line this week. Since Week 11, Carolina has allowed the 11th-most yards per attempt, the sixth-highest CPOE, and the fifth-highest success rate per dropback.
J.J. McCarthy BABY! Over the last two weeks, he has looked like the quarterback that I know he can be as the QB9 and QB6 in weekly scoring. Since Week 14, among 35 qualifying quarterbacks, McCarthy has ranked fifth in yards per attempt, 12th in catchable target rate, first in hero throw rate, and third in fantasy points per dropback. He has been COOKIN’! McCarthy can continue the hot streak this week. Since Week 11, the Giants have allowed the seventh-most yards per attempt, the fourth-highest passer rating, the highest CPOE, and the 14th-highest success rate per dropback.
Deep Plays to Consider
After last week’s monster game, Trevor Lawrence is the QB7 in fantasy points per game with QB1 outings in weekly scoring in five of his last seven games. Since Week 9, among 33 qualifying quarterbacks, Lawrence ranks 12th in passing yards per game, sixth in yards per attempt, second in passing touchdowns (tied), 13th in highly accurate throw rate, and seventh in hero throw rate. The generational talent has bubbled to the top for Lawrence. It has been amazing to watch. The true litmus test for Lawrence is this week. Denver still fields one of the best pass defenses in the NFL. Since Week 11, Denver has allowed the ninth-fewest yards per attempt, the 12th-lowest passer rating, and the 11th-lowest success rate per dropback.
Since Week 4, the only quarterback with more fantasy points per game than Jaxson Dart is Josh Allen. Since Week 4, among 41 qualifying quarterbacks, Dart has ranked 27th in yards per attempt, 23rd in highly accurate throw rate, 18th in catchable target rate, and third in hero throw rate. Since Week 4, he has averaged 7.6 rushing attempts and 44.4 rushing yards with seven rushing scores. Dart will need all of the rushing equity he can muster against a strong Vikings’ pass defense. Since Week 11, Minnesota hasn’t allowed a passing touchdown while also giving up the fourth-fewest passing yards per game, the fifth-fewest yards per attempt, and the 12th-lowest success rate per dropback.
Sam Darnold is the QB22 in fantasy points per game, with QB1 weekly finishes in only three of his last seven games. This includes a QB25 outing in his last meeting with the Rams. Among 44 qualifying quarterbacks, Darnold ranks first in yards per attempt, seventh in passing yards per game, second in highly accurate throw rate, 22nd in catchable target rate, and 13th in fantasy points per dropback. The Rams are a below-average matchup for Darnold. Since Week 11, the Rams have ranked 15th in yards per attempt and allowed the ninth-most passing yards per game, but they have also held quarterbacks to the second-lowest CPOE, the seventh-lowest success rate per dropback, and have forced the third-most interceptions. Darnold should be viewed as a decent QB2 this week.
Last week, Nix put on a clinic against a talented Green Bay pass defense as the QB2 for the week with 302 passing yards, four passing touchdowns, 8.9 yards per attempt, and a 67.6% completion rate. Overall, among 44 qualifying passers, Nix ranks 14th in passing yards per game, 20th in highly accurate throw rate, 15th in hero throw rate, and 19th in fantasy points per dropback. Nix needs to answer the call again this week against a strong pass defense. Since Week 11, Jacksonville has allowed the second-fewest yards per attempt, the sixth-fewest passing yards per game, the third-lowest passer rating, and the fifth-lowest success rate per dropback. Nix may overcome the tough matchup again, but we have also seen him struggle plenty of times this season against strong pass defense, so it’s a coin flip.
Concerning Starts & Players to Fade
Matthew Stafford is the QB4 in fantasy points per game with QB1 weekly finishes in eight of his last 11 games. The last time that he played Seattle, he was the QB16 for the week, though. Stafford will have an uphill climb this week to be a top 12 quarterback, but it’s possible. Among 44 qualifying quarterbacks, Stafford ranks seventh in yards per attempt, 13th in catchable target rate, second in hero throw rate, and fifth in fantasy points per dropback. Since Week 11, Seattle’s pass defense has remained nasty, giving up the lowest passing yards per game, the fewest yards per attempt, the third-lowest CPOE, and the second-lowest success rate per dropback. Stafford could be a QB1 this week, but losing Davante Adams this week doesn’t help his outlook.
Sit’Em
Caleb Williams has been a QB2 in weekly scoring in four of his last five games, including a QB16 performance against Green Bay. The last time he faced the Packers, he had a 54.3% completion rate with 186 passing yards and two passing touchdowns. This week, Williams could be without Rome Odunze and Luther Burden, which won’t help his outlook. Among 44 qualifying quarterbacks, Williams ranks 17th in passing yards per game, 25th in yards per attempt, 34th in highly accurate throw rate, and 39th in catchable target rate. There’s not much to like there. Williams should have more time in the pocket this week with no Micah Parsons, but this pass defense isn’t a pushover. Since Week 11, they have allowed the 11th-fewest passing yards per game while ranking 17th in CPOE and 15th in success rate per dropback. Williams should be viewed as a decent QB2.
Last week, Brady Cook completed 66.7% of his passes with 176 passing yards, three interceptions (one touchdown), and 39 rushing yards as the QB26 for the week. Among 48 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 47th in highly accurate throw rate, 46th in hero throw rate, and 47th in fantasy points per dropback. Cook is headed for another tough week against an improved Saints’ pass defense. Since Week 11, New Orleans has allowed the 11th-fewest yards per attempt, the second-fewest passing yards per game, the ninth-lowest CPOE, and the lowest success rate per dropback.
Quinn Ewers will get the start for Miami this week with Tua Tagovailoa benched. Ewers has attempted eight passes in the NFL, completing five of them with 6.6 yards per attempt. It’s anyone’s guess how he’ll perform this week. I wasn’t enamored with him as a prospect entering the NFL, but I do hope he proves me wrong and plays well this week. This is a great matchup for him to get his first NFL start, though. Since Week 11, Cincy has allowed the highest yards per attempt, the 12th-most passing yards per game, the eighth-highest passer rating, and the sixth-highest success rate per dropback. Ewers could easily post solid mid-range QB2 numbers this week.
Pete Carroll has stated that the Raiders’ offense could have Geno Smith back under center for Week 16. I don’t care if Smith is starting or Kenny Pickett this week. I don’t want to play the Raiders starting quarterback in fantasy lineups this week. Whoever it is will be in for a long day. Since Week 11, Houston has allowed the 14th-fewest passing yards per game, the seventh-fewest yards per attempt, the eighth-lowest passer rating, and the ninth-lowest success rate per dropback.
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