Start em or sit em? Fantasy football start or sit decisions can be excruciating. While it feels great to make the right call and cruise to fantasy glory, it hurts just as much when you have someone erupt while on your bench. You can use our Who Should I Start? tool to gauge advice from fantasy football experts as you make your lineup decisions. And you can also sync your fantasy football league for free using our My Playbook tool for custom advice, rankings and analysis.
Let’s take a look at a few polarizing players and what fantasy football expert Derek Brown advises. And you can find all of DBro’s fantasy football outlook in this week’s fantasy football primer.
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Fantasy Football Start’em, Sit’em Lineup Advice
Start’em
Deebo Samuel is the WR15 in fantasy points per game with six deep targets and ten red zone targets this season. Across the last two games, he has finished as the WR5 and WR32 in weekly scoring. This week’s matchup with Minnesota leans in his direction as the focal point for the passing offense along with Zach Ertz. Minnesota has utilized two high at the highest rate in the NFL (66.4%). Against two high, Samuel has had a 26.4% target share with 2.54 yards per route run and a 30.5% first-read share. Since Week 9, Minnesota has allowed the 12th-most PPR points per target and the tenth-highest passer rating when targeted to slot receivers.
Since Week 11, Christian Watson has taken off as Green Bay’s clear WR1 and the WR12 in fantasy points per game. Since Week 11, Watson has led the team with an 82.4% route share, a 28.2% target share, 58.3 receiving yards per game, 2.50 yards per route run, and a 36% first-read share. Since Week 6, Chicago has utilized single high at the 12th-highest rate (53.8%). Since Week 10, against single high, Watson has had a 25.4% target share with 2.04 yards per route run and a 31.6% first-read share. Watson should crush again this week. Since Week 9, Chicago has allowed the tenth-most PPR points per target and the second-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
Khalil Shakir is the only fantasy viable wide receiver to discuss with the Bills, right now. Last week, only Shakir and Gabe Davis crossed the 50% route share mark. If you were to tell me that Shakir was the only Bills’ wide receiver to surpass that line this week, I wouldn’t be surprised at all. Shakir is the WR41 in fantasy points per game with a 20.5% target share with 47.4 receiving yards per game, 1.91 yards per route run, and a 23.9% first-read share. Shakir leads the team with ten red zone targets while also kicking in five deep targets. Shakir offers solid flex appeal against a Bengals team that will force Buffalo to pass more than they probably want to. Since Week 9, Cincy has allowed the eighth-most PPR points per target and receiving yards per game to slot receivers.
Last week, Meyers led the team with a 22.2% target share, 90 receiving yards, 3.10 yards per route run, and a 35.3% first-read share. He had one red zone target and one deep target as the WR11 for the week. Since Week 11, he has had a 22.8% first-read share, 68 receiving yards per game, 2.65 yards per route run, and a 27.8% first-read share. In those three games, he has had four red zone targets and one deep target. Indy has ranked 15th in PPR points per target allowed to perimeter wide receivers while also giving up the 13th-most receiving yards per game to the position.
Troy Franklin continues to hum along as the WR35 in fantasy points per game while ranking second in deep targets and eighth in red zone targets among wide receivers. The last time he faced this pass defense, he was the WR23 for the week, securing five of his nine targets with 40 receiving yards and a score. This week, he faces a Raiders’ secondary that, since Week 9, has utilized single high at the third-highest rate (63.8%). Since Week 7, against single high, Franklin has had a team-leading 27% target share and 33.8% first-read share with 2.13 yards per route run. He should lead the way for Denver’s passing attack this week. Since Week 9, the Raiders’ secondary has allowed the eighth-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
Since Week 10, Jayden Higgins has been the WR24 in fantasy points per game. He has settled into a 60%-ish route share weekly. Last week, he had a 62.2% route share. Since Week 10, Higgins has had an 18.5% target share, a 30% target per route run rate, 50 receiving yards per game, 2.15 yards per route run, and a 22.2% first-read share. In his last four games, he has had four red zone targets and five deep targets. If Houston would allow him to play a 75-80% route share, he could be winning people weeks, but I’ll take what we can get from Nick Caley. Higgins has been uber-efficient with his workload and drawing targets at a high level when on the field. Since Week 11, the Chiefs have utilized two high at the second-highest rate (61.9%). Since Week 10, against two high, Higgins has had a 30% target per route run rate, 2.28 yards per route run, and a 22.4% first-read share. Higgins should crush again this week. Since Week 9, the Chiefs have allowed the fifth-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
Last week, Adonai Mitchell finally had a boom game which you could see coming from a mile away with the market share and the matchup that he had last week. It was wonderful to still see it come to fruition. Last week, Mitchell was the WR5 in fantasy with a 36.4% target share, a 59.8% air-yard share, 102 receiving yards (2.83 yards per route run), and a 50% first-read share. He had two red zone targets and two deep targets. Since Week 11, Mitchell has had a 28.4% target share, a 61.4% air-yard share, and a 41.8% first-read share with four red zone targets and seven deep targets. He has been operating as the team’s clear WR1. He could easily continue the hot streak this week against a Miami secondary that, since Week 9, has allowed the ninth-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider
This doesn’t line up well as another strong Alec Pierce week. Pierce has been the Colts’ field-stretching single-high destroyer all season. Since Week 10, the Jags have allowed the eighth-lowest passer rating while ranking 16th in adjusted completion rate when defending downfield passing. Also, since Week 10, they have utilized two high at the fifth-highest rate (58.8%). Against two high, Pierce has had an 11.3% target share, 1.44 yards per route run, and a 14.9% first-read share. Working in Pierce’s favor is the fact that the Jags have been horrible against perimeter wide receivers recently. Since Week 9, the Jags have allowed the tenth-most fantasy points per game and the 11th-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. This could help Pierce pop off with a splash play or two, but I don’t believe this is a ceiling game for Pierce.
Since Rashee Rice has been a full-time player in the Chiefs’ offense (Week 8), Worthy has been the WR51 in fantasy points per game with two top-36 weekly finishes (WR33, WR28), which have come in his last two games. Houston’s perimeter corners are really, really good, but the coverage matchup is working in Worthy’s favor this week. Since Week 8, he has had a 16.6% target share with 44.2 receiving yards per game, 1.29 yards per route run, and a 21.8% first-read share. In those five games, he has had two red zone targets and seven deep targets. Since Week 9, Houston has utilized single-high at the seventh-highest rate (59.9%). Since Week 8, against single high, Worthy has had a 19.8% target share with 1.65 yards per route run and a 26.9% first-read share. The problem for Worthy is that, since Week 9, Houston has allowed the fifth-fewest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Worthy gets a bump with the positive single high numbers, but it still only makes him a dart throw flex this week.
Jerry Jeudy is an intriguing deep league flex this week. In Shedeur Sanders‘ two starts, Jeudy has finished as the WR75 and WR59 in weekly scoring. Yes, I know that’s not sexy, but stay with me. Let me explain. Since Week 12, Jeudy has had a 15.2% target share with 32.5 receiving yards per game, 1.55 yards per route run, and a 23.1% first-read share. In those two games, Jeudy has led the team with three deep targets. The Titans have struggled to defend perimeter wide receivers and downfield passing. Since Week 9, Tennessee has allowed the third-highest deep ball completion rate, the second-most deep passing yards per game, and the third-highest deep passer rating. Also, since Week 9, Tennessee has allowed the seventh-highest PPR points per target and the seventh-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
Since Week 12, Devaughn Vele has had an 18.1% target share with 65 receiving yards per game, 1.55 yards per route run, and a 16.7% first-read share. In those two games, Vele had two red zone targets and two deep targets. Last week, he was the WR7 in weekly scoring, securing all eight of his targets with 93 receiving yards and a score. Since Week 10, Tampa Bay has utilized single high at the third-highest rate (63.1%). Since Week 12, against single high, Vele has been a distant third in the target pecking order against single high with a 17.9% target share, 1.29 yards per route run, and an 11.1% first-read share. Vele is a decent flex play this week, but I wouldn’t expect a repeat of last week’s stat line in Week 14. Since Week 9, Tampa Bay has allowed the 12th-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
Since Week 11, John Metchie has finished as a top-20 wide receiver in weekly scoring twice (WR18, WR11). Since Week 11, Metchie has had a 20.5% target share with 43 receiving yards per game, 1.39 yards per route run, and a 23.6% first-read share. In those three games, he has two red zone targets and zero deep targets. He could easily be a strong flex play again this week operating as New York’s WR2 against a Miami secondary that, since Week 9, has allowed the ninth-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
Sit’em
Brian Thomas Jr. returned to the huddle last week with a 78.1% route share, an 11.1% target share, 28 receiving yards, and a 17.6% first-read share (second on the team). He had a 16.0 aDOT, and one of his three targets was downfield. Could Trevor Lawrence and Brian Thomas Jr. connect on a deep heave this week? Sure, but I don’t want to bet on it this week. This season, Indy has allowed the 13th-lowest deep completion rate, the tenth-lowest passer rating to downfield passing, and the third-fewest deep passing touchdowns (tied).
Quentin Johnston is the WR29 in fantasy points per game with a 17% target share, 47.7 receiving yards per game, 1.39 yards per route run, and a 21.1% first-read share. He leads the team with 13 deep targets while also ranking fourth in red zone targets with 11. This isn’t the matchup to consider flexing Johnston. Since Week 7, Philly has utilized two high at the fourth-highest rate (56.3%). Against two high, Johnston’s numbers have cratered with a 14.5% target share, 0.98 yards per route run, and an 18.6% first-read share. Since Week 9, Philly has allowed the third-most receiving yards per game and the eighth-most fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers, so maybe that helps Johnston this week. I’m not projecting a ceiling performance for him, though. He’ll need a touchdown to save his day.
DJ Moore has had a quiet season as the WR43 in fantasy points per game, with only two top 24 weekly finishes. In the last four games, he has finished as the WR68 in weekly scoring or lower three times. Moore has a 14.9% target share with 41.8 receiving yards per game, 1.41 yards per route run, and a 16.9% first-read share. He has seven red zone targets and 11 deep targets. Moore is best left on the bench this week. Since Week 9, Green Bay has allowed the ninth-fewest fantasy points per game and the 12th-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
Since Week 10, Luther Burden has had a 51.6% route share, a 13.7% target share with 39.3 receiving yards per game, 1.96 yards per route run, and a 19.5% first-read share. In those four games, he has zero high-leverage usage with no red zone or deep targets. Since Week 9, Green Bay has held slot receivers to the fewest receiving yards per game and the second-fewest fantasy points per game. Sit Burden this week.
Since Week 11, Romeo Doubs has been the WR44 in fantasy points per game with a 19.2% target share, 32 receiving yards per game, 1.52 yards per route run, and an 18% first-read share. I those three games, he has had four red zone targets and zero deep targets. Since Week 6, Chicago has utilized single high at the 12th-highest rate (53.8%). Since Week 10, against single high, Doubs has had a 12.7% target share, 0.38 yards per route run, and a 15.8% first-read share. The matchup is good for Doubs this week, but the coverage matchup could limit his volume. He’s a low-end flex this week. Since Week 9, Chicago has allowed the tenth-most PPR points per target and the second-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
Since Week 10, Tucker has been the WR56 in fantasy points per game with a 17.6% target share with 30.8 receiving yards per game, 0.79 yards per route run, and a 21.6% first-read share. In those four games without Jakobi Meyers, he has had three red zone targets and eight deep targets. Sit Tucker this week. Since Week 9, Denver has held perimeter wide receivers to the sixth-fewest PPR points per target.
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