The current week of NFL DFS is always my favorite week. The slate is clean, and we are not forced to deal with our draft day mistakes as we do in managed seasonal leagues. It is all about honing in on value plays and which ones to slot in our DFS lineups.
This article aims to decipher values in the lobbies. It is not meant to be a roster builder. Instead, it will help identify key players priced below their production potential based on various factors for DraftKings and FanDuel.
This week, we have an 11-game slate due to bye weeks. Between byes and injuries, we have to dig a little deep for the value plays. Let’s get to it.
The current week of NFL DFS is always my favorite week. The slate is clean, and we are not forced to deal with our draft day mistakes as we do in managed seasonal leagues. It is all about honing in on value plays and which ones to slot in our DFS lineups.
This article aims to decipher values in the lobbies. It is not meant to be a roster builder. Instead, it will help identify key players priced below their production potential based on various factors for DraftKings and FanDuel.
This week, we have an 11-game slate due to bye weeks. Between byes and injuries, we have to dig a little deep for the value plays. Let’s get to it.
NFL DFS Value Plays: Week 14
Quarterbacks
Jordan Love has finished as a QB2 in all but two games this season and a QB1 in four contests. He has thrown two or more touchdowns in six games, including four in last week’s tilt against the Lions.
Meanwhile, the Bears are allowing the 10th-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Divisional games typically offer some variance that can drive production up a tick. The Packers are hosting, and this game features a 44.5 over/under.
Love is in another good spot to end the slate as a middling to back-end top-12 option at the position this week. Love can be deployed in both cash and GPP contests. He is projected for ~5% rostership.
This is flirting with a variance that could pay off big for production over cost. However, there is plenty of risk in trusting a rookie with two starts under his belt. Let’s dissect some factors that point to this being at least viable for this slate.
In his two starts, Shedeur Sanders has finished as the QB18 and QB24. He has thrown two touchdown passes and is averaging 179 passing yards over his two starts. While none of that is impressive, what does a two-win team have to lose by seeing what they have in the rookie?
Then there is the matchup. The Titans allow the 12th-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. Over their last six games, they have allowed multiple touchdown passes in all but one (Geno Smith). During that same time frame, they are allowing the second-most deep passing yards per game. Sanders has already shown a proclivity to want to push the ball downfield.
Sanders could flirt with a very usable day in a plus-matchup. Yes, there are plenty of risks involved; therefore, he should be treated as a GPP-only play. Furthermore, he would be best used for multiple lineup users.
Running Backs
The Steelers’ utilization of Kenneth Gainwell in last week’s loss to the Bills was unexpected. Gainwell has emerged as the primary pass-catcher out of the backfield, but he only saw three targets while playing strictly from behind. He did finish with a 44% route share, but he didn’t see the expected volume. It is also worth mentioning that Gainwell has 51 targets this season.
On the season, the Ravens have allowed the 14th-most fantasy points per game to running backs. Since Week 8, they have allowed 36.3 receiving yards per contest. For $1,000 less than backfield teammate Jaylen Warren, Gainwell represents a decent floor as a Flex play with some receiving upside potential. He is better utilized in GPP contests.
This backfield continues to operate with some unpredictable splits, but the roles are becoming a little clearer. Kenneth Walker continues to be used between the tackles, and Zach Charbonnet mops up the red-zone carries. Walker also gets the higher percentage of targets out of the backfield. There are not a lot of other takeaways from last week’s runaway game. The game script and, therefore, the deployment of the backfield flipped once the game was squarely put away.
This week, Walker and company face a Falcon’s run defense that allows the 11th-most fantasy points to running backs. They are surrendering 101.4 rushing yards and 33.6 receiving yards on a per-game basis. Walker could flirt with low-end RB1 production this week in a game that features a 44.5 over/under. He can be used in both cash and GPP contests.
Wide Receivers
Michael Wilson has emerged this season, most notably once Jacoby Brissett took over under center. Marvin Harrison Jr. and Greg Dortch are out for this contest, once again thrusting Wilson to operate as a focal point for the Cardinals’ passing attack. When faced with a similar situation in two of his previous three games, Wilson finished as the WR1 and WR9, respectively. During those two contests, Wilson saw 33 targets for 303 receiving yards.
The Rams have been fairly neutral against receivers, allowing the 16th-most fantasy points per game. Over their last five games, they have allowed four receiving touchdowns to receivers. Wilson will get the volume that leads to production beyond his salary. This game features a 47.5 over/under. Wilson is a good value shot this week who can be used in both cash and GPP contests.
Last week, Terry McLaurin announced his return from injury with 96 yards, one touchdown and a WR9 finish for the week. Deebo Samuel finished with a respectable 64 receiving yards on seven targets. In a vacuum, McLaurin would seem like the obvious play.
However, McLaurin will face a Vikings team that uses two-high safeties at one of the highest rates in the league. In that coverage, McLaurin sees his target rate drop to just over 14%. Samuel operates out of the slot 51.8% of the time and has a 26% target share against two-high coverage. This game schematically appears to favor Samuel. The Vikings are no easy task as a defensive unit against receivers.
Full transparency, the Vikings are the second-worst matchup against the position. Take that into consideration before locking Samuel into lineups. He is best used in GPP contests.
Tight Ends
Since Kirk Cousins stepped into the starting role, Kyle Pitts has been the beneficiary of a more robust target share. Last week, Pitts led the team in targets, catching seven for 82 yards. This week, Pitts gets another good matchup, and the Falcons will be minus Drake London.
The Seahawks allow the fourth-most fantasy points to the position. Tight ends average 8.8 targets and 70.3 yards per game versus Seattle. They have also allowed five touchdowns to the position this season. While always nervous to plug Pitts into a lineup, Cousins will need someone to throw to, and it is a plus-matchup. Fire Pitts up in GPP and cash contests for this slate.
The rookie’s fantasy production has dipped in recent weeks, in part because the Colts have faced several defenses that match up well against tight ends. Despite the slowdown, Tyler Warren remains a steady contributor in the offense and ranks second on the team in targets, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns.
Indianapolis travels to Jacksonville this week to face a Jaguars defense that has allowed the second-most fantasy points and the fourth-most touchdowns to tight ends. The matchup positions Warren as a strong candidate for increased production. He is a viable option in both cash games and GPP contests.
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John Hesterman is a featured writer and Expert Consensus Ranker at FantasyPros. He also writes for DynastyLeagueFootball.com. For more from John, check out his archive and follow him on Bluesky @John-Hesterman or Twitter/X @John_Hesterman.
