The players below are the ones I’m looking at for NFL DFS GPP considerations this week. Salaries marked with an * indicate a strong value in pricing difference on FanDuel.
Week 18 NFL DFS GPP Advice & Picks
Quarterbacks
Jaxson Dart (QB – NYG) vs. DAL | DraftKings: $5,700/FanDuel: $7,100*
Excluding last week’s poor performance from Josh Johnson, Dallas’ defense has been a dream matchup for opposing quarterbacks this season. Jaxson Dart bounced back last week against Las Vegas and has performed very well as long as the matchup has been advantageous.
Dart also saw an uptick in rushing last week. Both teams are expected to play their starters, but monitor the weather as the game is in New York. Dart can still pay off via rushing upside.
Drake Maye (QB – NE) vs. MIA | DraftKings: $7,100/FanDuel: $8,600
Drake Maye is closing out the season hot — taking advantage of easy defensive matchups. He has another layup matchup this week against Miami. Despite the excellent matchup and having one of the highest ceilings at quarterback this week, Maye won’t be a popular play.
There’s some general fear that Maye is at risk of not playing a full game. However, similar to last week, if he’s pulled from the game, it will be because the game is extremely out of hand. The Patriots are still playing for seeding and play at the same time as Denver. Maye offers the same upside as last week at a lower rostership.
Trevor Lawrence was a popular play last week, and while he salvaged his day with two touchdowns on the ground, he was an ineffective play in DFS because his only receiver to surpass double-digit fantasy points was Parker Washington.
Rather than pivoting off Lawrence, it’s worth it to run it back given the excellent matchup against Tennessee and simply get different at running back. Tyler Shough and Chris Olave picked apart the Titans last week. The matchup is too good to fade the Jaguars, despite Lawrence remaining a chalky play this week.
Additional Considerations
Running Backs
Ashton Jeanty was an extremely popular play in Week 17 that burned many, so he should see far lower rostership this week. The matchup is not ideal, and Jeanty had just 21 rushing yards in the prior matchup. Add in a plethora of cheap running backs pushed into starting roles this week, and you’ve got the perfect combination for a high ceiling contrarian play in Jeanty.
Oddly enough, Jeanty’s big games have come in what should’ve been poor matchups against Houston, Cleveland and Chicago. He may have a random ceiling game in this matchup, especially against an uninspired Kansas City Chiefs defense.
Woody Marks (RB – HOU) vs. IND | DraftKings: $5,800/FanDuel: $6,200*
Woody Marks returned last week to a clear lead back role with 19 carries. While it wasn’t productive from a fantasy perspective, the matchup against the Chargers was difficult, and this week is far more agreeable.
The Texans will likely play starters for the majority of the game, and the Colts have been a fairly friendly matchup for opposing running backs, as long as the quarterback isn’t sniping touchdowns. In the first matchup, Nick Chubb was still fairly involved and got the goal-line work. With Marks separating himself from Chubb this time around, Marks is set up for a potential ceiling game, making him a solid value play.
Tank Bigsby (RB – PHI) vs. WSH | DraftKings: $5,400/FanDuel: $6,900
With the Eagles expected to sit starters, Tank Bigsby steps in as the likely lead back and is a strong play this week against a struggling Commanders’ defense. While Will Shipley will likely also contribute, we’ve seen enough evidence that Bigsby is the direct replacement for Saquon Barkley.
Bigsby showcased extreme upside in Week 8 against the Giants, where he had over 100 yards on just nine carries after Barkley left the game with an injury. He offers sub-$6,000 pricing on DraftKings and will be one of the stronger value plays on the slate.
With Josh Jacobs likely sitting, Emanuel Wilson will step in as the starter for the second time this season against Minnesota. The Vikings’ defense is tough, but Wilson had over 100 yards on 28 carries with two touchdowns in the first matchup — the second-best performance of any running back against Minnesota this season.\
Wilson will have to do it without Jordan Love this time around. However, pure volume makes him a solid play at his pricing this week.
Ray Davis (RB – BUF) vs. NYJ | DraftKings: $4,900/FanDuel: $4,400*
It’s unclear if we’ll see James Cook in Week 18 with a season rushing title potentially on the line. We’ve often seen coaches bypass titles for the sake of the playoffs. If Cook sits, Ray Davis is his direct handcuff. The Jets’ run defense is terrible, and Cook had over 100 yards in their first matchup. His pricing is impossible to beat. Monitor the situation.
Additional Considerations
Wide Receivers
Marvin Harrison Jr. is out, and Michael Wilson is well worth the price tag. He has one of the highest ceilings of any player on the slate. While he’ll be a popular play, his pricing should keep his rostership in check.
The Rams’ secondary is vulnerable to volume, and Wilson had his best performance of the season with 11 receptions for 142 yards and two touchdowns in their first matchup against the Rams. The Rams could also sit starters at some point during the game.
The Texans are in an extremely meaningful game for seeding and will likely play their starters for the majority of the game. Nico Collins had a strong performance in the first matchup against Indianapolis and the Colts will likely be without Sauce Gardner, who re-aggravated his injury. Collins should have low rostership and a reliable workload.
The Rams don’t necessarily have to play starters. The seeding difference is negligible. However, Sean McVay said the starters will play, likely because the Rams need to get back in sync.
However, Arizona isn’t exactly strong competition, and if the Rams’ offense performs well early, they’ll likely pull starters. Xavier Smith is in a unique position because if Davante Adams is out, Smith could play with the starters and remain in the game for increased opportunities when they sit. It’s a risky play, but the cost is incredibly low on DraftKings.
Courtland Sutton has the perfect combination of extreme volume, a meaningful matchup and a defense likely sitting starters. While he underformed last week against Kansas City, Sutton has had between 10 and 12 targets in the past four games and two games with at least 20 fantasy points.
Despite the uptick in production compared to his lull earlier in the season, Sutton remains very reasonably priced and should have moderate rostership.
Additional Considerations
Tight Ends
Tyler Shough and Chris Olave have been an extremely fun and profitable stack in DFS. Without Olave this week, Shough’s upside is capped, pulling him from our player pool. However, Juwan Johnson gets a boost in upside this week.
The matchup against Atlanta is not ideal, but with Olave out, Johnson is the primary pass-catcher. He’s been a top-10 performer for the past two weeks. In the previous matchup against Atlanta, Johnson had a solid day with 11 fantasy points. He’ll have a solid floor this week with an increased ceiling and reasonable rostership.
Additional Considerations
D/ST
Minnesota Vikings D/ST vs. Green Bay Packers | DraftKings: $3,000/FanDuel: $3,500*
This is a very intriguing week for picking the right DS/T. There are several expensive options in good matchups. There are several mid- to low-end defenses with increased upside, facing backup quarterbacks. You also have to be wary of the potential for underwhelming performances from defenses that are in good situations but also not playing their starters.
The Vikings are a very safe option this week. They’ve been out of playoff contention for a while, and their defense has been a strong performer despite the offensive struggles. Green Bay is not only sitting starters but starting third-string quarterback Clayton Tune, who has just one career start back in 2023. The Packers will likely lean on the ground game. While I do like Emanuel Wilson this week, the pick-six potential for a young, inexperienced quarterback is too good to pass up.
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