NFL DFS Lineup Advice & Picks (Conference Championships)

The NFL Conference Championship Round leaves only four teams vying for the Lombardi Trophy, creating a two-game slate. The small slate means gamers will almost certainly stack both contests. However, instead of including two game stacks below, as I’ve done in this piece all year, I’ve highlighted only the more appealing game to stack. Three players from the other contest are included among the core studs and values/punts, though. Here is our top NFL DFS lineup advice and picks for the NFL Conference Championships.

• NFL DFS Lineup Optimizer
• NFL DFS Projected Roster Percentages
• Weekly NFL DFS Salary Changes

NFL DFS Picks & Predictions: Conference Championship Round

Suggested Game Stacks

Game: Seahawks vs. Rams

Spread/Total: SEA -2.5/46.5 Points

Jaxon Smith-Njigba is projected by the DFS lineup optimizer to lead the slate in scoring at DraftKings and FanDuel. He also has the WR1 value score (the measure of points per $1,000 salary) at both DFS outlets.

According to the Fantasy Points data suite, among 91 wide receivers with at least 250 routes run, including the postseason, JSN is first in air yards (1,833), air yards share (47.9%), target share (32.3%), second in targets per route run (0.32 TPRR), first in first-read rate (43.7%), seventh in targets per game (8.9), third in receptions (122 at 6.8 per game), second in receiving yards per game (100.7), first in yards per route run (3.65 Y/RR), tied for second in receiving touchdowns (11), second in DraftKings points per game (20.8) and second in FanDuel points per game (17.4). Smith-Njigba is having a massive campaign.

Additionally, the Rams have a 77.1% zone coverage rate this season, and JSN has 0.33 TPRR and 3.69 Y/RR on 365 routes against zone coverage this year. His matchup is tasty, too. The Rams have allowed the most DraftKings points per game (37.2) and FanDuel points per game (30.2) to wide receivers since Week 15 among the remaining playoff teams. The second-most DraftKings and FanDuel points per game ceded among the final four teams during that period were 27.8 and 22.3, respectively.

There’s a ton to love about Smith-Njigba on any slate. Yet, I have more faith in Matthew Stafford than Sam Darnold, resulting in the other elite wide receiver in this contest getting the nod among the core studs.

Speaking of Stafford, he’ll likely be busy on Sunday. Per the Fantasy Points data suite, the Seahawks faced a 0.7% pass rate over expectations (PROE) in the regular season. The Rams had a 4.6% PROE in two games against Seattle this season. Stafford struggled mightily in his first matchup against the Seahawks this season but rebounded brilliantly. In the two games combined, Stafford logged a 57.1% completion rate, 587 passing yards (293.5 per game), 7.62 yards per pass attempt, 8.92 adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A), five passing touchdowns, zero interceptions, a 103.1 Quarterback Rating, 23.5 DraftKings points per game and 23.5 FanDuel points per game. Stafford is projected as the QB1 with the QB1 value score in the Conference Championship Round.

Davante Adams isn’t a must-use player. Regardless, he’s one of the best wideouts on a slate lacking for high-end receiving talent behind the top two options. LA’s passing attack is also narrowly focused between the forthcoming superstar, Adams and their tight ends. Adams played in just one of the two games against the Seahawks in the regular season and had only one reception for one yard on eight targets, but the reception went for a touchdown.

Adams has the following stats in 15 games this season.

• 76.9% route participation rate
• 36.6% air yards share
• 24.2% target share
• 0.30 TPRR
• 28.0% first-read rate
• 124 targets (8.3 per game)
• 65 receptions (4.3 per game)
• 861 receiving yards (57.4 per game)
• 2.08 Y/RR
• 14 receiving touchdowns
• 15.9 DraftKings points per game
• 13.7 FanDuel points per game
• 18.2 expected fantasy points per game

There was plenty of meat on the bone for Adams. Moreover, he led the NFL in end-zone targets with 27, nine more than the second-highest mark. Again, Adams isn’t a no-brainer selection, but he has upside worth chasing in GPPs.

The other pass-catching options on the table are cheaper but flawed DFS picks. Rashid Shaheed and Cooper Kupp have the aforementioned plus matchup noted in JSN’s write-up.

Since Shaheed made his debut with the Seahawks in Week 10, his 61.7% route participation rate, 17.3% air yards share and 9.0% target share all lag behind Kupp’s 76.9% route participation rate, 19.8% air yards share, and 15.1% target share. Kupp’s underlying data make him a more appealing DFS pick than Shaheed. However, Shaheed also has the potential for a return touchdown, as evidenced by his punt return touchdown against the Rams in Week 16 and his kickoff return touchdown to open last week’s game. Shaheed has also reached at least 20 rushing yards in three games for the Seahawks. Circling back to Shaheed’s return potential, there’s sneaky stacking upside worth considering in GPPs for Shaheed and Seattle’s defense.

Colby Parkinson has distanced himself from Tyler Higbee. Parkinson has a 48.3% route participation rate compared to a 31.5% route participation rate in the playoffs, and Parkinson ran 20 routes versus only eight for Higbee last week. In Parkinson’s last five games, he’s recorded the following numbers.

• 58.3% route participation rate
• 6.5-yard average depth of target (aDOT)
• 13.3% target share
• 0.22 TPRR
• 14.8% first-read rate
• 28 targets (5.6 per game)
• 17 receptions (3.4 per game)
• 200 receiving yards (40.0 per game)
• 1.54 Y/RR
• Three touchdowns
• Two end-zone targets
• 11.6 DraftKings points per game
• 9.9 FanDuel Points per game

Core Studs

• Sadly, Zach Charbonnet suffered a torn ACL in the Divisional Round, leaving Kenneth Walker with a likely bell-cow role. George Holani had his injured reserve (IR) practice window opened, but that doesn’t assure he’ll be activated this week. It’s unlikely he or Velus Jones will substantially eat into Walker’s featured-back role. K9 is in superb form, clearing 130 scrimmage yards in three of his last four games. He torched the 49ers for 145 scrimmage yards and three touchdowns last week. Walker has reached triple-digit scrimmage yardage in seven of 12 games when he had at least 14 touches, reached at least 66 scrimmage yards in three more and had at least 50 scrimmage yards in all 12 of those contests. In his last three games, Walker has scored 21.2 DraftKings points per game and 19.7 FanDuel points per game. KWIII is rightfully projected as the RB1 with the RB1 value score on Sunday.
• Puka Nacua is the not-so-mystery player I kept alluding to above. Among 91 wide receivers with at least 250 routes this year, Nacua is third in air yards (1,791), 29th in air yards share (30.8%), third in target share (29.1%), first in targets per route run (0.36), fourth in first-read rate (36.6%), second in targets per game (10.5), first in receptions (144 at 8.0 per game), first in receiving yards per game (104.6), second in yards per route run (3.59), tied for second in receiving touchdowns (11), first in DraftKings points per game (23.8) and first in FanDuel points per game (19.7). Nacua’s matchup isn’t as favorable as JSN’s, but he has a better quarterback. Nacua is also matchup-proof. In two games against the Seahawks this year, Nacua had 24 targets, 19 receptions, 300 receiving yards, two receiving touchdowns, 32.4 DraftKings points per game and 27.2 FanDuel points per game. I prefer Nacua to JSN and suggest having more exposure to LA’s No. 1 wide receiver than Seattle’s.
• Rhamondre Stevenson is projected as the RB2 at both DFS sites, with the RB2 value score at DraftKings and the RB3 value score at FanDuel. Stevenson has balled out since the calendar flipped to December. Stevenson has tallied 63.1 rushing yards per game, 6.60 yards per carry, four rushing touchdowns, 3.1 receptions per game, 36.7 receiving yards per game, two receiving touchdowns, 19.4 DraftKings points per game and 17.8 FanDuel points per game.

Value Plays/Punts

• Terrance Ferguson has eye-catching vertical usage and a bigger role than his punt salary suggests. In three games played since Week 16, Ferguson has a 50.7% route participation rate, 15.9-yard aDOT, 16.2% air yards share, 10.1% target share, 0.19 TPRR, 4.3 targets per game, 2.0 receptions per game, 35.3 receiving yards per game, 1.51 Y/RR, two receiving touchdowns, two end-zone targets, 10.5 DraftKings points per game, 9.5 FanDuel points per game and 9.6 expected fantasy points per game.
• Pat Bryant was a limited participant in Wednesday’s practice. He’ll need to progress through and clear the NFL’s concussion protocol to play the Patriots on Sunday, but the limited participation is a promising start. The rookie wideout ran three routes, had three targets, three receptions, and 32 receiving yards against the Bills in the Divisional Round before he was ruled out with a concussion. In Bryant’s previous four healthy contests, he was second on the Broncos in route participation rate (68.2%), air yards share (24.2%), target share (16.3%), receptions (16 at 4.0 per game) and third in receiving yards (147 at 36.8 per game). Courtland Sutton will likely be Jarrett Stidham‘s top option as Denver’s most talented pass-catching option. Still, Stidham and Bryant could be on the same page, and Bryant’s cap-friendly salary helps fit the studs into DFS lineups.
• J.K. Dobbins‘ status might be more up in the air than Bryant’s. He opened this week with a limited practice. Even if Dobbins is activated from the IR for Sunday’s game, he hasn’t played since Week 10 (November 6). The veteran running back has the minimum salary at both DFS sites, setting a low bar for him to be useful, even in a challenging matchup. Dobbins can flop, even at his minimum salary, but even a modest showing on 8-to-10 touches while freeing up the salary needed to jam Nacua, JSN, Walker and either of the top two quarterbacks into lineups could be the backbone of a GPP-winning lineup.

Conference Championship Round Top 3 Underdog Player Props

Rhamondre Stevenson: 48.5 Rushing Yards – Higher

Stevenson has gone under 48.5 rushing yards only once in his last six games, and he’s surpassed that mark in three straight. According to the Fantasy Points data suite, Stevenson averaged 67.0 rushing yards per game during that period, with 7.31 yards per carry and a 12.7% explosive run rate. The Broncos allowed 117 rushing yards and 4.88 yards per carry to Buffalo’s running backs last week. Excluding Denver’s matchup against the reserves for the Chargers in Week 18, they’ve allowed 363 rushing yards (72.6 per game) and 4.22 yards per carry to running backs in their last five games. We project Stevenson to have 58.8 rushing yards against the Broncos on Sunday afternoon.

RJ Harvey: 19.5 Receiving Yards – Higher

RJ Harvey has surpassed 19.5 receiving yards in three of his last four games and six of his last eight. Even if Dobbins returns this week, Harvey had a backfield-high 27.3% route participation rate in his last six games with Dobbins. He had 0.29 TPRR, 16 receptions (2.7 per game) and 106 receiving yards (17.7 per game) in those contests. His receiving average was slightly below his line for this matchup, but Tyler Badie was still involved with a 25.3% route participation rate in those games, and Badie had just a 15.2% route participation rate in Denver’s last five games. The Broncos are 4.5-point underdogs at home, which could set the stage for a negative game script for them. Furthermore, Harvey can provide Stidham with a safety valve right out of the gate. As a result, he should surpass 19.5 receiving yards, and we project him to have 25.3 against the Patriots.

Kenneth Walker: 22.5 Receiving Yards – Higher

Walker has logged 13 receptions (2.6 per game) and 137 receiving yards (27.4 per game) in his last five games. He’s cleared 22.5 receiving yards in back-to-back games and three of his last four. Walker also had 44 receiving yards and 64 against the Rams in the two prior meetings. Seattle’s explosive feature back is projected to have 23.5 receiving yards against his NFC West rival, putting him over his Underdog line of 22.5 receiving yards.

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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.