The NFL playoff DFS contests start this weekend with the Wild Card Round. FanDuel treats Sunday’s three-game slate as its main slate and also calls Saturday’s two-game slate its main slate. DraftKings also splits its slates between both days. However, both DFS providers also offer Saturday-through-Monday contests. To serve the broadest possible audience, I’ve highlighted a suggested game stack for Saturday and one for Sunday. The core studs and values/punts will also feature players from the entire Wild Card weekend.
NFL DFS Picks & Predictions: Wild Card Round
Suggested Game Stacks
Game: Bears vs. Packers
Spread/Total: GB -1.5/45.5 Points
Only one of the two games scheduled for Saturday has a slight spread. The Rams are massive favorites, making the enticing DFS options one-sided in that contest. The Packers and Bears will play a rubber match after splitting the regular-season series.
Josh Jacobs and D’Andre Swift are featured on the table. However, they’re interesting only on Saturday’s main slate. The Saturday-through-Monday slate is loaded with enticing running back selections, rendering Jacobs and Swift as non-options. On Wednesday, Jacobs said, “My body coming into this game is the best I’ve felt probably in the last six weeks.”
Jacobs can be a workhorse if he’s as healthy as he claims. He had at least 14 opportunities (carries plus targets) in his first nine games this year, reached at least 16 in eight of those contests and had at least 20 seven times.
Meanwhile, Swift is Chicago’s lead running back, albeit Kyle Monangai has a meaningful complementary role. According to the Fantasy Points data suite, Swift handled 63 of Chicago’s backfield’s 111 rush attempts (56.8%) and paced the backfield with a 43.9% route participation rate since Week 14, logging the following stats.
- 313 rushing yards (62.6 per game)
- 4.97 yards per carry
- Four rushing touchdowns
- 65.1% success rate
- 27% stuff rate
- 57.1% of Chicago’s rush attempts inside the five-yard line
- 11 targets (2.2 per game)
- Nine receptions (1.8 per game)
- 62 receiving yards (12.4 per game)
- 14.7 DraftKings points per game
- 13.8 FanDuel points per game
The passing attacks have viable options across all applicable slates. Caleb Williams is my least favorite quarterback of the six in my player pool for the Saturday-through Monday NFL DFS slate. Nevertheless, he’s demonstrated a DFS-friendly ceiling with his arm and legs, and it’s cap-friendly to single- or double-stack him with his highlighted stacking partners on the table. One of those players is featured below.
The other is Colston Loveland. The rookie tight end finished the regular season on a high note, recording 90-plus receiving yards in his final two games and splashing paydirt in each.
Since Week 12, Loveland is the TE7 in DraftKings points per game (14.2), the TE7 in FanDuel points per game (11.7) and the TE7 in expected fantasy points per game (11.9). During that seven-game stretch, Loveland had the following stats.
- 66.3% route participation rate
- 9.3-yard average depth of target (aDOT)
- 24.7% air yards share
- 19.3% target share
- 0.27 targets per route run (TPRR)
- 25% first-read rate
- 47 targets (6.7 per game)
- 34 receptions (4.9 per game)
- 384 receiving yards (54.9 per game)
- 2.17 yards per route run (Y/RR)
- Four touchdowns
- Two end-zone targets (both resulting in touchdowns)
Loveland is Saturday’s best option at tight end and a stellar pick on the Saturday-through-Monday slate as the only tight end or in two-tight-end lineups.
Jordan Love last played in Week 16, when he exited the Bears game with a concussion. He’ll return to face his NFC North nemesis this week. Love lit up the Bears for 234 passing yards, three touchdowns and one interception on 25 pass attempts in Week 14, but he was off to a less impressive start in the rematch.
Regardless, the Bears represent a favorable matchup for Love. Chicago has permitted the seventh-most DraftKings points per game (20.8) and the seventh-most FanDuel points per game (20.8) to quarterbacks since Week 14. The Bears can coax a ceiling performance out of Love.
Jayden Reed is a nifty bargain option on Saturday’s main slate and viable on the three-day slate. C.J. Gardner-Johnson is in the concussion protocol and hasn’t practiced. Kyler Gordon has logged two limited practices, but he could be activated from the injured reserve (IR) this week. Jaylon Johnson is admittedly not 100%.
Gordon could help the Bears in the slot. Still, the Bears have allowed the most DraftKings points per game (19), the most FanDuel points per game (16.3) and the second-most yards per target (11.66) to slot wideouts since Week 14. In Green Bay’s last five meaningful games (Week 13 through Week 17), Reed led the Packers in route participation rate (68.1%) and had a 75% slot rate. Reed secured all seven of his targets for 66 scoreless receiving yards and rushed three times for 28 scoreless yards (47 scrimmage yards per game) in two games against the Bears. Reed hasn’t had a blow-up game this year, but the Bears can bring the best out of him and allow him to provide value at his bargain salary.
Game: Jaguars vs. Bills
Spread/Total: BUF -1.5/52.5 Points
The table is jam-packed for the Jaguars versus the Bills. I’m not breaking new ground by suggesting gamers stack the game with the highest over/under total on Wild Card weekend. Let’s start with the notable absence of Travis Etienne. Fading Jacksonville’s lead running back is one way to avoid being too chalky by stacking this contest.
Etienne’s largely been an inefficient volume sponge lately, averaging fewer than 4.0 yards per touch in four of his last six games. He’s also failed to reach paydirt in back-to-back games, and Bhayshul Tuten could be a thorn in Etienne’s side for scoring touchdowns. Moreover, Etienne’s dip in rushing efficiency isn’t a one-year outlier. Instead, according to Pro Football Reference, Etienne has averaged 4.95 yards per carry in September, 4.66 yards per carry in October, 3.73 yards per carry in November, 3.75 yards per carry in December and 4.15 yards per carry in January in his career.
Etienne isn’t an atrocious or indefensible pick on the three-day or Sunday-only slate. Nonetheless, both are loaded with high-end running back options, making it easier to fade Etienne in favor of Jacksonville’s passing attack.
Speaking of fading Etienne in favor of Jacksonville’s passing attack, that’s precisely what Liam Coen did down the stretch. According to the Fantasy Points data suite, the Jaguars are first in pass rate over expectations (8.6% PROE) since Week 14. Frankly, why wouldn’t Coen lean into Trevor Lawrence while he’s white-hot?
Among 37 quarterbacks with at least 50 dropbacks since Week 14, Lawrence is third in passing yards per game (274.2), second in adjusted net yards per pass attempt (8.86 ANY/A), tied for second in passing touchdowns (13), third in Quarterback Rating (113.5), first in DraftKings points per game (29.6) and first in FanDuel points per game (29.6). Lawrence has also reached double-digit rushing yards in seven straight games, and he’s rushed for four touchdowns in his last five games.
Lawrence’s top stacking option is in the next section. Jakobi Meyers and Brenton Strange are also appealing stacking options, though. Meyers paced the Jaguars in route participation rate (91.1%) in their final five games in the regular season, tallying a 23.9% air yards share, 22.6% target share, 25.4% first-read rate, 7.6 targets per game, 4.8 receptions per game, 47.6 receiving yards per game, a team-high four end-zone targets and one receiving touchdown. Meyers’ 11.4 DraftKings points per game and 8.8 FanDuel points per game during that period were OK, but his 14.4 expected fantasy points were notably better, making him a regression candidate.
The Bills have been a challenging matchup for tight ends this year. Nevertheless, they haven’t been entirely unbeatable by tight ends, and Strange is underpriced and a cheap option at tight end or at Flex as part of two-TE builds. Strange had a 15.5% target share, 5.2 targets per game, 3.6 receptions per game, 39.6 receiving yards per game, two touchdowns (on both of his end-zone targets), 10.6 DraftKings points per game and 8.8 FanDuel points per game in his last five games of the regular season.
James Cook against the Jaguars is a strength-versus-strength matchup. Jacksonville’s run defense is stout. According to Pro Football Reference, the Jags held running backs to an NFL-low 68 rushing yards per game in the regular season. However, Cook was the NFL’s rushing champion.
Cook has also thrived in wins, and the Bills are favored in Jacksonville. Excluding Buffalo’s Week 18 victory, according to StatHead, Cook had 1,227 rushing yards (111.5 per game), 5.5 yards per carry, 57.8% success rate, 11 rushing touchdowns, 24 receptions (2.2 per game), 251 receiving yards (22.8 per game), two receiving touchdowns, 271.8 DraftKings points (24.7 per game) and 233.8 FanDuel points (21.3 per game) in 11 wins this year. Cook is strictly a GPP option to chase his ceiling.
Josh Allen and Buffalo’s pass-catching options are more appealing to stack from this probable shootout than Cook. The Jaguars have a pass-funnel defense. They faced the second-highest pass rate over expectations (4.4% PROE) this season. Allen has mostly excelled when pushed to air it out this year. In six games with at least 30 pass attempts this season, Allen scored at least 21.4 DraftKings points and at least 20.3 FanDuel points five times, with two games of at least 41.8 DraftKings points and at least 38.8 FanDuel points. He had medians of 24.3 DraftKings points and 21.8 FanDuel points in those games.
Jacksonville isn’t a cupcake matchup for Allen. Yet they’ve allowed nine quarterbacks to score at least 20 DraftKings points this season. The group of quarterbacks who hit that threshold was a mix of quality quarterbacks and lousy ones. Allen should be the latest one to exceed that mark against the Jaguars. The NFL DFS lineup optimizer projects Allen as the QB1 at both providers on all slates.
Buffalo’s best DFS option in their pass-catching corps will appear below. Khalil Shakir isn’t a slouch, though. He led the Bills in route participation rate (67.7%) in their last five meaningful games (Week 13 through Week 17). He also jumped to a 76.9% route participation rate in the final two games in that period.
Furthermore, Shakir has a 70% slot rate this year and a 65.1% slot rate from Week 13 through Week 17. Meanwhile, Jacksonville has permitted the ninth-most DraftKings points per game (12.8) to slots, tied for the ninth-most FanDuel points per game (10.3) allowed to them and tied for the 17th-most yards per target (8.08) allowed to slots since Week 14. Shakir stands out in the lineup optimizer as a value, owning the WR2 value score (the measure of points per $1,000 salary) at DraftKings on the Saturday-through-Monday slate, the WR1 value score on the Sunday-only slate at DraftKings and the WR5 value score on Sunday’s main slate at FanDuel.
Reading the tea leaves, Shakir, Brandin Cooks and Tyrell Shavers should be Buffalo’s three most utilized wideouts. When the Bills rested as many starters as they could in Week 18, Shakir was active but played zero snaps. Cooks was inactive. Shavers played four snaps on offense and, per Pro Football Reference, 12 snaps on special teams. Gamers shouldn’t read too much into Shavers’ special teams reps, as Gabe Davis hasn’t played a special teams snap since playing precisely one in 2023. Josh Palmer also isn’t a special teams contributor, and he didn’t participate in practice on Wednesday because of a lingering ankle injury as well.
Cooks also had his best game of the season in Week 17. He had a team-high 135 air yards, 57% air yards share, five targets, 0.25 TPRR, four receptions and 101 receiving yards on a 47.6% route participation rate against the Eagles in Week 17. In his last three games, Cooks had a 29.1-yard aDOT, 47.8% air yards share and 0.23 TPRR. His vertical usage gives him big-play potential, but it also makes him a volatile selection.
Shavers is also a vertical threat. From Week 13 through Week 17, Shavers had a 40.4% route participation rate and 15.6-yard aDOT but logged only four receptions for 73 scoreless yards. A dud is the most likely outcome from Shavers. Nonetheless, stacking Cooks or Shavers with Allen or as a bring-back from the Jaguars opens up salary to jam the studs into lineups while providing big-play potential.
Core Studs
- Puka Nacua is a borderline unstoppable force. Among 86 wide receivers with at least 250 routes this season, Nacua is third in target share (28.8%), first in targets per route run (0.37 TPRR), third in first-read rate (37.5%), second in targets per game (10.2), first in receptions (129 at 8.1 per game), first in receiving yards per game (107.2), first in yards per route run (3.85 Y/RR), tied for fourth in touchdown receptions (10), first in DraftKings points per game (23.9), first in FanDuel points per game (19.8) and fourth in expected points per game (18.1). He’s the WR1 on both DFS outlets on all slates.
- Parker Washington flashed his potential earlier in the year. However, he exploded to conclude the regular season. Since Week 16, Washington is tied for the WR4 in DraftKings points per game (22.7) and the WR5 in FanDuel points per game (19.6). He had a 79.5% route participation rate, 40.4% air yards share, 26.7% target share, 0.29 TPRR, 9.3 targets per game, 6.3 receptions per game, 115.7 receiving yards per game, 3.58 Y/RR and two receiving touchdowns in those games.
- Saquon Barkley‘s regular season left much to be desired. He got a breather in Week 18, and Lane Johnson returned to practice on Wednesday. Barkley can erase the taste of his lousy regular season by gashing a defense hemorrhaging points to running backs lately. Since San Francisco returned from their Week 14 bye, they allowed the sixth-most DraftKings points per game (28.5), the sixth-most FanDuel points per game (25.9), 114.8 rushing yards per game, 5.28 yards per carry, five rushing touchdowns, 4.8 receptions per game and 35 receiving yards per game to running backs. Barkley is also entering the postseason in semi-good form. In his final four games in the regular season, Barkley cleared 100 rushing yards twice, logged 414 scrimmage yards (103.5 per game) and three touchdowns. He can smash the 49ers this week.
Value Plays/Punts
- Dalton Kincaid played only 12 games this season because of injuries. He was efficient when on the field, and his knee was healthy enough last week for the Bills to feed him three targets for three receptions and 48 yards in a meaningless game. Among 53 tight ends with at least 150 routes this season, Kincaid had the fourth-deepest average depth of target (9.3-yard aDOT) and was sixth in air yards share (19.1%), first in targets per route run (0.27 TPRR), 10th in receiving yards per game (47.6), first in yards per route run (3.19 Y/RR), tied for 12th in touchdown receptions (five), 13th in DraftKings points per game (10.8), first in DraftKings points per route run (0.72), 10th in FanDuel points per game (9.1) and first in FanDuel points per route run (0.61). Kincaid has a sweet matchup in the Wild Card Round. The Jaguars have allowed the 10th-most DraftKings points per game (15) to tight ends and tied for the 10th-most FanDuel points per game allowed (11.7) to the position this year. Kincaid is an excellent game-stacking option with Allen, as a bring-back from the Jaguars or one-off choice.
- Luther Burden hasn’t emerged as a full-time wideout, but he’s an ascending player and made the most of his 58.6% route participation rate in his last four games of the season. Burden parlayed that role into a 20.2% air yards share, 18.8% target share, 0.29 TPRR, 27.3% first-read rate, 6.5 targets per game, 5.3 receptions per game, 81 receiving yards per game, 3.64 Y/RR, one receiving touchdown, 15.9 DraftKings points per game and 13.3 FanDuel points per game. Rome Odunze could return this week and muddy the playing time. Regardless, Burden should retain a prominent role and is dynamic enough to help DFS teams in all game types.
- Christian Watson has balled out in his return from surgery for a torn ACL suffered last January. Among 109 wide receivers with at least 200 routes run this year, Watson is 18th in air yards share (36.2%), tied for 23rd in targets per route run (0.24 TPRR), 17th in receiving yards per game (61.1), fourth in yards per route run (2.67 Y/RR), tied for 18th in touchdown receptions (six), 17th in DraftKings points per game (13.5), tied for fifth in DraftKings points per route run (0.59), 16th in FanDuel points per game (11.8) and tied for fourth in FanDuel points per route run (0.51). Watson isn’t priced accordingly for his elite underlying data, making him a superb DFS selection across all game types and slates.
Wild Card Round Top 3 Underdog Player Props
Jimmy Horn: 6.5 Receiving Yards – Higher
The Panthers are 10.5-point underdogs against the Rams and will likely be forced to air it out to keep pace. Jimmy Horn is behind Tetairoa McMillan, Jalen Coker and Xavier Legette in Carolina’s wide receiver room. However, Horn has a 19.5% route participation rate since Week 14 and had a 28.6% route participation rate in Week 18 against the Buccaneers. Horn has cleared the low bar of 6.5 receiving yards in back-to-back games and three of his last four. Additionally, he’s gone over that mark in Carolina’s last four losses. We project Horn to have 10.4 receiving yards on Saturday.
Travis Etienne: 66.5 Rushing Yards – Lower
Etienne has rushed for fewer than 66.5 yards in three of his last four games, four of his last six and nine of 17 this season. Etienne has averaged 48.7 rushing yards per game with 3.21 yards per carry and a 2.2% explosive run rate in his last six games. We project him to rush for 64 yards against the Bills, putting him under his line at Underdog.
Kenneth Gainwell: 30.5 Receiving Yards – Higher
Kenneth Gainwell had a modest start to the season, but his season took off against the Bengals in Week 11. Gainwell has a 58.8% route participation rate, 17.5% target share, 0.28 TPRR, 44 receptions (5.8 per game), 363 receiving yards (45.4 per game) and 2.10 Y/RR in eight games since Week 11. Gainwell has exceeded 30.5 receiving yards in three of his last four games. Finally, according to StatHead, nine running backs have gone over 30.5 receiving yards against the Texans this year.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
