NFL free agency always starts loud, then somehow gets louder. On the FantasyPros fantasy football podcast, Joey P. and Jake Ciely framed 2026 as one of those years where franchise tags, early extensions, and “leaks” could shrink the real free-agent pool fast. Their point was simple: by the time the official window opens, half the names we’re debating today could already be spoken for.
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Fantasy Football Outlook: NFL Free Agency Predictions & Rumors
Still, the NFL rumor mill is fun, and more importantly, it’s useful for fantasy football because landing spots change volume, play style, and draft cost. Here’s what stood out.
Daniel Jones (QB)
The show’s core Daniel Jones take was basically: no, he’s not worth $40 million per year… but the NFL quarterback market doesn’t care what we think is “worth it.” Teams get desperate, and desperation pays.
Fantasy-wise, the Colts fit is the only part that really matters. Jones has always looked more functional when he has protection and a credible supporting cast. But there’s a big red flag that impacts drafts: the injury timeline. If there’s any chance he’s not fully himself early in the season, you’re drafting a quarterback whose spike weeks might not show up until October. That pushes him into the “late QB2 with QB1 upside” bucket instead of something you build around.
- Draft note: If he’s back in Indy, he’s a streaming-friendly pick, not a set-it-and-forget-it starter.
Malik Willis (QB)
The Malik Willis conversation was half excitement, half cautionary tale. Ciely compared the hype cycle to past “backup flashes into payday” moments (Matt Flynn energy), while still acknowledging Willis has more talent than that archetype.
The fantasy appeal is obvious: rushing upside, broken-play points, and the possibility of a team building an offense around his strengths. Arizona got floated as a “that would be fun” spot, and yeah, it would be. It’s also the kind of landing spot that can inflate dynasty prices overnight.
But the key advice from the pod was actionable: if you roster him in dynasty, this might be the time to float him in trade offers. When the market gets driven by a small sample size, you’re playing with profit margins, not certainty.
- Dynasty note: If your league is frothy on Willis, selling for a safer long-term starter profile is completely defensible.
Aaron Rodgers (QB)
Rodgers talk always comes with a sigh, and this was no different. The argument here wasn’t “Rodgers is back because he’s elite.” It was “Rodgers is back because some teams will be left holding an empty bag at quarterback.”
The Steelers were framed as the kind of team that could miss on other options and default into the Rodgers plan. If that happens, the fantasy ripple is more about who the Steelers add around him than Rodgers himself. Ciely highlighted that Mike McCarthy-style offenses tend to lean into three-wide sets. If Pittsburgh invests at receiver, it’s easier to talk yourself into usable weekly fantasy outputs across the pass catchers.
- Redraft note: Rodgers is more likely to raise the floor of the receivers than become a league-winning QB value.
George Pickens (WR)
Pickens got discussed through the “tag then trade?” lens, but the show landed on “probably not.” The big issue: trade markets for wide receivers can be weirdly cold, and teams rarely want to cough up premium picks unless the player is viewed as a true centerpiece.
From a fantasy perspective, the takeaway is boring but helpful. If he stays put, you’re projecting a similar role and target share, then adjusting based on who ends up throwing the passes. If he gets traded, the list of realistic fits is smaller than people think.
- Reality check: “Sell high” only works if your league actually wants to buy.
Breece Hall (RB)
The pod’s tone here was bleak. The expectation was that the Jets tag Hall, which locks him into an offense that currently looks like a quarterback rummage sale. That’s not a shot at Hall’s talent. It’s just what happens when a great running back gets stapled to chaos.
If the Jets do nothing meaningful at quarterback, Hall’s efficiency ceiling stays capped. You can still get volume, but volume with bad scoring environments turns into a weekly sweat.
- Redraft note: Hall remains valuable, but he becomes more “good RB1/strong RB2” than “overall RB1 upside.”
Travis Etienne Jr. (RB)
This was the most interesting fantasy segment of the episode because it’s the perfect ADP trap.
The show basically laid out two versions of Etienne:
Etienne stays with the Jaguars: Thumbs up. You’re probably getting a depressed price because drafters will be nervous about backfield competition and “what if” outcomes.
Etienne goes to the Chiefs: The market loses its mind, and you should at least consider selling into the hype.
That’s sharp process. Kansas City landing spots tend to turn into instant top-five RB projections in the fantasy streets, even when the actual usage is more committee-ish than people want to admit.
- Market note: A Chiefs rumor can move Etienne up multiple rounds before he ever takes a snap.
Alec Pierce (WR)
Alec Pierce got treated like the classic “role player becomes expensive” free agency story. The Raiders fit was the fantasy-friendly one: a cleaner path to targets, plus a QB who needs a true downfield winner to pair with Brock Bowers and the run game.
Staying with the Colts is tougher for fantasy because the target pie gets crowded fast. Pierce can still pop, but weekly consistency becomes a problem.
- Best-case landing spot: Las Vegas, where he can realistically push for top-of-the-depth-chart volume.
Mike Evans (WR) and Isaiah Likely (TE): The Forced-Rumor Corner
Joey P. floated the idea of Mike Evans to Buffalo, basically as Josh Allen‘s veteran “make life easier” receiver while the Bills keep trying to patch the post-Diggs era.
Ciely’s forced-rumor was Isaiah Likely to Washington, with the logic being: the receiver pool dries up quickly, and a tight end difference-maker can stabilize an offense and give Jayden Daniels an outlet.
If Likely ever gets a true TE1 role outside Baltimore, his fantasy value changes dramatically. That’s not hot take. That’s just math.
Fantasy Football Takeaways
- Daniel Jones back with the Colts is a fantasy-friendly outcome, but injury timing makes him a risky early-season starter.
- Malik Willis has league-winning rushing upside if he lands a starting job, but his dynasty value may be peaking right now. Consider selling if your league is overbidding.
- Aaron Rodgers feels like a “teams run out of options” outcome. If he lands somewhere like Pittsburgh, the biggest fantasy boost could be to the pass catchers’ floors.
- George Pickens being tagged makes a trade less likely than fantasy Twitter wants. Plan for him staying put unless the market shifts.
- Breece Hall is still a premium asset, but tagging him in a bad offense lowers his ceiling outcomes.
- Travis Etienne Jr. is a buy if he stays in Jacksonville at a discount. If he lands with the Chiefs, be ready for ADP inflation and consider selling into the hype.
- Alec Pierce to the Raiders is a sneaky volume upside play. Staying in Indy is fine, but it’s a tougher path to consistent targets.
- Isaiah Likely is a “monitor the newswire” tight end. A true TE1 landing spot would push him into the top tier quickly.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.