Finding value in average draft position (ADP) after pick 300 is one of my favorite challenges in fantasy baseball. Anyone can highlight elite players or tell you to draft borderline All-Star players. But it’s the diamonds in the rough that truly win fantasy leagues. Today’s piece will focus on finding just that — sleepers going beyond pick 300 who are still highly valuable.
There are a plethora of productive pitchers beyond pick 300. Many of them are young with little track record but have shown early promise. There are also the post-injury players who excelled at one point in their careers but are now looking for a bounce-back season.
When I first set out to write this article, Logan Henderson, Evan Carter, Ian Seymour and Joey Cantillo were all available well past pick 30o. They have all moved up the pecking order and no longer qualify for this list. That shows you how quickly these rankings can change, especially for those standouts with significant upside. For this next group, you’re going to want to get your hands on them before they are gone.
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Deep Fantasy Baseball Sleepers
Quickly, here are a handful of names I like who narrowly don’t qualify: Jake Burger (282 ADP), Andrew Vaughn (285 ADP), Chase DeLauter (286 ADP), Mickey Moniak (294 ADP), Luis Gil (295 ADP) and Jordan Beck (298 ADP).
Now, let’s get to deep sleepers. Here are 11 players with plenty of upside beyond pick 300.
Braxton Ashcraft (SP, RP – PIT)
Working as both a starter and reliever, Braxton Ashcraft posted a 2.71 ERA last year with an equally impressive 2.78 FIP. Surprisingly, he was at his best as a starter. The 6-foot-5 southpaw registered a 2.16 ERA, better than a strikeout per inning and an ultra-low .587 opponent OPS over eight starts (33.1 innings).
Ashcraft features a nasty five-pitch repertoire that led to plenty of missed bats. His 0.39 HR/9 stands out, as does his minuscule 4% barrel rate and 51% ground-ball rate. His arsenal includes a high-90s fastball, but it’s his breaking stuff that does the real work.
Ashcraft’s high-spin-rate curveball held batters to a measly .122 batting average while eliciting a 37% whiff rate. His slider was just as nasty, resulting in an 83 miles per hour (MPH) average exit velocity and a 32.4% whiff rate. He’s penciled in as the third starter in the Pirates’ rotation and is my favorite target on this list.
Parker Messick (SP – CLE)
Parker Messick doesn’t project to break camp with the Guardians, but it won’t be long until he’s back starting every five days. Messick showed great promise last year, demonstrating elite control with all five of his pitches. Over seven starts (39.2 innings), Messick maintained a microscopic 3.6% walk rate while yielding nearly a strikeout per inning. He also kept the ball in the yard at less than a home run per nine and finished the season with a 2.72 ERA/2.98 FIP.
Messick was equally solid in the minors, so there’s no reason to believe he can’t keep the success rolling. He’s arguably better than three of the five starters already penciled into the Guardians’ rotation, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him called up by May — if he doesn’t make the squad out of spring training.
Jacob Lopez (SP, RP – ATH)
Jacob Lopez had a phenomenal four-game stretch last year where he didn’t allow a single run. While he had his ups and downs the rest of the season, Lopez was a man among boys during the late summer weeks. The 27-year-old left-hander mowed down 36 batters over 30 innings while allowing just two earned runs. A five-game stretch isn’t exactly a strong pedigree, but Lopez was elite in a handful of other outings as well.
Out of his 17 starts, the former Tampa Bay Ray held opponents to zero earned runs seven times. He also held the Phillies to just one run over seven innings, the Astros to one run over six innings and the Blue Jays to two runs over five innings. Lopez did suffer a pair of clunkers that pushed his ERA for the year to 4.08 (including his final game, where he got hurt).
Overall, Lopez shows great promise. His 10.97 K/9 is a hard find after pick 300. Lopez is a must-draft in deeper leagues and a fine selection in standard ones as well.
Tyler Mahle (SP – SFG)
I understand Tyler Mahle isn’t the most exciting draftee, but did anyone notice the numbers he put up in Texas last year? The 31-year-old finished with a 2.18 ERA and 1.13 WHIP over 16 starts. No, he didn’t strike out a ton of batters, but he has in the past. Mahle registered better than a strikeout per inning from 2020 through 2023.
Injuries have slowed down the once-promising right-hander, but he was still able to look extremely competitive last year. Another knock against him is his batting average on balls in play (BABIP). While the .260 BABIP he posted last year was low, Mahle has finished with similar numbers before, so it’s not as if it were an anomaly.
San Francisco is a pitcher’s park, especially early in the year. If Mahle can stay healthy through the first half of the season, he could be a strong asset to your ERA and WHIP ratios.
Riley O’Brien (RP – STL)
Riley O’Brien battled a calf injury early in camp, but he is still likely to split closer duties this coming season. With JoJo Romero the other leading candidate for the job, Cardinals manager Oliver Marmol will likely play the matchups in the ninth inning. O’Brien, as the right-hander, should get more opportunities, so he’s worth taking a stab at after pick 300.
Romero has also been the subject of trade rumors, so there is still the off chance he gets moved. That said, O’Brien was able to put together a slightly better season last year, so the closer role could end up solely his regardless. O’Brien finished the year with a 2.06 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, a 23% strikeout rate and six saves. He could be in line for similar numbers this season, but with more than twice the number of stops.
Josh Jung (3B – TEX)
Josh Jung is more of a wait-and-see candidate rather than someone I’m targeting, but there’s no denying his potential value at pick 321. Once you get past the top 10 at third base, the position isn’t exactly budding with stars.
After a short battle with a hamstring early in camp, Jung seems primed and ready to go. While he has struggled through two injury-plagued seasons, Jung was quite the run producer in 2023. The power-hitting third baseman launched 23 home runs while driving in 70 runs and scoring 75 times.
While those numbers don’t exactly jump off the page, the fact that he was able to do it in just 122 games does. Jong hit .266 that year and looked well on his way to becoming a cornerstone for the Rangers’ offense. He’s someone to consider in the deepest of leagues.
Matt Wallner (OF – MIN)
Need homers? Look no further than Matt Wallner. The Twins outfielder swings hard and often. A launch-angle darling, Wallner managed to finish with above a 50% fly-ball rate last year while mashing 22 home runs over 336 at-bats.
Wallner annually puts up an ISO over .250. If he stays healthy, he could reach 30 home runs. With a bat speed in the 96th percentile and arm strength beyond that, he’ll probably hit the injured list (IL) for a pair of stints. While he’s active, though, the homers could come in bunches.
Josh Lowe (OF – LAA)
Josh Lowe was extremely productive for the Rays back in 2023. Nathaniel Lowe‘s younger brother hit for a .292 average while mashing 20 home runs and swiping 32 bases. His last two seasons have been filled with injuries and poor play, but the steals continued to mount.
Now with a move out west, the change of scenery could do Lowe some good. He’s still only 28 years old. The Angels love to run and swing for the fences — something Lowe has proven he can do.
Dylan Beavers (OF – BAL)
Dylan Beavers is going to have to beat out Tyler O’Neill for starts against right-handed pitching, but that shouldn’t be too much of a problem. The 6-foot-5, 24-year-old does everything well and shows an excellent eye at the dish (19% walk rate).
Beavers is selective but can also hit for average and power, and he runs the bases well. If he gets enough playing time, a 20/20 season is not out of the question.
Robby Snelling (SP – MIA)
Robby Snelling was a standout in the minor leagues last year but never got the call. Now 22 years old, it’s only a matter of time before the Marlins rely on his services. Snelling has little left to prove in the minors, as he registered an eye-popping 33% strikeout rate in Triple-A last year. He limits walks (2.58/9), keeps the ball in the yard (0.66 HR/9), and collects plenty of ground balls (51%). The Marlins’ starting rotation is full of injury risks, so he will likely get his opportunity sooner rather than later.
The Marlins have a pair of studs biding their time in the minor leagues, but I think it will be Snelling who gets the promotion before the even younger Thomas White. If your league allows you to stash minor league players under an NA (Not Active) slot, Snelling is a no-brainer. But even if you don’t have that luxury, he’s still worth stashing in deeper leagues.
Jonah Tong (SP – NYM)
Jonah Tong was also a monster in the minor leagues last year. But unlike Robby Snelling, Tong received his promotion. While the right-hander’s stuff did generate a 25% strikeout rate, he also dealt with an unsightly .396 BABIP.
Tong won’t start the season in the Majors, but with plenty of question marks surrounding the Mets’ projected starting staff, Tong could be up by late May. He might not strike out 40% of hitters, as he did in Triple-A, but an 11.5 K/9 ratio would be a welcome addition to any fantasy squad.
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Austin Lowell is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Austin, check out his archive.
