5 Early Season Trends to Act On or Ignore (2026 Fantasy Baseball)

April is loud. Every breakout looks real, every slump feels permanent, and fantasy baseball managers are left sorting signal from noise. That’s where our Featured Pros come in. We asked the experts which early-season trends actually matter and which ones are just small-sample theater. Before you overhaul your roster or chase the next hot streak, here’s what the pros are buying and what they’re fading.

Early Season Trends to Act On or Ignore (2026 Fantasy Baseball)

Which early-season trend actually matters, and what moves should managers make because of them?

New pitch/Altered pitch mix

“A pitcher who incorporates a new pitch and/or alters his pitch mix can drastically change his results. For example, last season, Chase Dollander threw his curveball 21 percent of the time and his sinker 10 percent. This year, his sinker has a 22 percent usage rate, while he has thrown his curve just six percent of the time. He has also reduced his four-seam fastball usage from 49 to 38 percent. The same can be said of Jose Soriano. Soriano was essentially a two-pitch pitcher last year, throwing a sinker or curve 76 percent of the time. This year, he has incorporated a four-seamer, with nearly even distribution among that offering, his sinker, and his curve. The results for both pitchers have been outstanding thus far. Changing the pitch mix does not guarantee a breakout season, but there is reason to believe both pitchers have staying power throughout the year based on their adjustments.”
– Mick Ciallela (Fantrax)

Team stolen base stats

“One of my favorite things to look at early in the season is which teams are not only running the most, but also which are allowing the most success. These trends tend to persist throughout the season due to team philosophy or roster construction. The Brewers (48), Marlins (41), Rays (41), and Yankees (41) have the most attempts, with the Giants (12), Tigers (13), and Blue Jays (14) sitting at the bottom. Last year? The Rays and Brewers led the league while the Giants, Tigers, and Blue Jays were the most stationary teams in baseball. It may seem obvious, but fantasy managers sometimes ignore this. If I’m looking to pick up some help in the category, it is wise to rule out almost any team below league average unless a total speed demon arrives on the scene. Additionally, if I’m streaming hitters at any position, it’s helpful to look at who they’re facing. The Marlins have not only allowed the most attempts, but other teams are successfully stealing 92.5% of the time. In 2025, it was the same story. This trend is well-established and predictable. In 2026, it also apparently means if you want to gain in the SB category, roster and target the Miami Marlins all season long.”
–Kelly Kirby (FantasyPros)

Young pitcher success

“When you hear the word ‘trend,’ I think most fantasy sports folk think of a specific metric or maybe a specific game-day player behavior, like a noticeable uptick in steals or the complete absence of bunting in today’s game. For me, I looked a little sideways, prepping for this post. Entering draft season, I saw a league with very few aces (I had three based on buzz and ADP: Garrett Crochet, Tarik Skubal, and, reluctantly, Paul Skenes, who I am less high on than most) and a lot of extremely talented young, inexperienced arms. And, while that inflated my risk profile, it also provided a lot of opportunities for value because a lack of track record always results in a drop in ADP and draft cost. We’ve seen that come true in 2026, and I am doing extremely well early on in my industry expert leagues in all formats and both AL/NL Only and Mixed League formats as a result. I targeted either breakout second-year guys who weren’t new to the league but who aren’t established major league veterans or newcomers/rookies like Chase Burns (43 IP in 2025 – #114 ADP), Cameron Schlittler, Nolan McLean, Parker Messick, Chase Dollander (and his SP/RP eligibility), and my second-highest priority during draft season behind only Chase Burns, Jacob Misiorowski. These young, inexperienced arms, along with others like Davis Martin, are popping up and getting it done. This trend often leads to another – SELLING HIGH. You combine terms like “unknown” or “unestablished” with partners in crime-phrases like “small sample size” and “Pop Up,” and the cunning fantasy folks think – Get out – Sell now. DON’T DO IT. This is a trend to maximize, not to dismiss or run from. Young up-and-coming Aces like Cameron Schlittler and Misorowski, to Nolan McLean, Chase Dollander, and Chase Burns are killing it in the K category. All of those I listed are inside the Top 12 in strikeouts. Add surprises like Davis Martin, Landon Roup, and even Payton Tolle from the Boston Red Sox, and you’ve got plenty of room for reasonable doubt in some, and opportunity for others. Buy into the hot starts of the young upstarts and go buying. That’s an early 2026 trend I’d be leaning into.”
– Chris Mitchell (FantasyData)

Which early-season trend should fantasy managers ignore, and why?

Lineup spot

“In season-long Redraft formats, I would not worry a whole lot about lineup spots. First and foremost, they change constantly. With a few exceptions, the days of teams rolling out the same lineups for weeks on end are more or less gone. Managers are constantly implementing platoon situations and trying to counterattack opposing teams with openers, making lineup positions extremely fluid. In addition, players like Dansby Swanson and Andres Gimenez are proving that hitting at the bottom of the lineup does not necessarily have to limit production. Conversely, hitting at the top of the order has not exactly led to much from the likes of TJ Friedl and Steven Kwan to this point in the season.”
– Mick Ciallela (Fantrax)

Overperforming players on bad teams

“My father is anything but an expert in fantasy sports; he has one philosophy in ALL of his different fantasy leagues: Buy players from good teams. He doesn’t do projections. He doesn’t care or even follow buzz. He doesn’t have the time the rest of us have to research and project production. His philosophy is “Keep It Simple Stupid.” Pick players from good teams and, by osmosis, you’ll have a good team as a result. Well, if you look at the current standings, that’s a trend I’m avoiding by selling high. Sorry, Dad. In 2026, a lot of the most productive offenses in baseball are either, by early-season projections or early-season surprise starts, the worst teams in baseball. The Houston Astros are always projected to have a shot at the World Series. Well, they have one of the worst records in baseball. The Washington Nationals are always a cellar dweller, and while they do have a lot of young offensive talent in the pipeline, sixth in RBI and 12th in HR has to be a bit of a surprise to most. The same goes for the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, who rank seventh in runs and fourth in HR. Jo Adell had a nice 2025, and Mike Trout is still a good player when healthy, but Top 10 offense? Raise your hand if you are the ONE person who bet that prop during spring training. Team success is a perfect place for fantasy managers to zig when others are zagging. Lineup construction and a good team making a good fantasy player are two of the myths that owners should manipulate and maximize early in the season, before the princess turns back into a pumpkin. Yes, good players can become better players when surrounded by players performing well. That’s what Runs Scored relies on. But don’t overdo it. A mediocre player is still mediocre. Look at the players that are outperforming projections on teams that are outperforming their projections and pounce. SELL… or in some rare cases, BUY. The trend is that the player is on the cusp of a surprisingly amazing breakout season, and you don’t want to miss out on it. Ignore that urge and SELL if you have that player. (Hello, Jose Soriano of the Angels flying high on borrowed wings) or BUY (Hello Christian Walker and Cam Smith in Houston). Look at the Nationals or the Angels, and the opposite holds for the Astros. There is an inefficiency to exploit when mediocre or inexperienced offensive players are riding a hot team’s wave and receiving positive buzz. Be cunning, my friends.”
– Chris Mitchell (FantasyData)