Fantasy Football Outlook: Fernando Mendoza & Carnell Tate

Day 1 of the 2026 NFL Draft is in the books! Let’s dive into the fantasy football outlook for a few of the top NFL rookies selected in Round 1: Fernando Mendoza & Carnell Tate.

Fantasy Football Outlook: Fernando Mendoza & Carnell Tate

Fernando Mendoza (QB – LV)

The 6-foot-5 and 236-pound QB is officially a Las Vegas Raider. After his breakout season with Indiana, Las Vegas selected him first overall to make him their future franchise QB.

In 2025, he finished first in the class in on-target rate (81 percent), pass completion over expectation (+12 percent), and in overall completion rate (72 percent) per Sports Info Solutions.

According to ESPN Research, he overthrew or underthrew his receiver on just 7.1 percent of pass attempts in 2025, the third-lowest rate in the FBS. He completed 54 percent of his passes on throws 20-plus yards downfield, fourth best. Sticks his throws outside the numbers.

He’s a great decision-maker with a high football IQ and a clutch gene. Watching him, he reminded me of Kirk Cousins, who just so happens to be his new teammate.

At times, Mendoza can hold onto the ball too long and take sacks. He can rely too much on his first read (sixth in Passing Grade on 1st read, 25th in Passing Grade beyond 1st read) via CFB Dalton.

However, his fit in Klint Kubiak’s offense should alleviate some of these concerns.

Sam Darnold posted a career low in pressure-to-sack percentage with Kubiak last year and was top-12 in throwaways on an offense that ranked 29th in pass attempts per game.

Mendoza should also help boost the Raiders’ offense overall – especially in the red zone. 27 TDs and zero INTs in the red zone last season.

We should see a more efficient and concentrated offense with Kubiak. Brock Bowers and Ashton Jeanty should feast. Just getting healthier across the offensive line will see this unit play dramatically better in 2026. Factor in Kubiak’s scheme, and we could really see Ashton Jeanty shine in Year 2. Brock Bowers might get the Jaxon-Smith Njigba treatment with favorable looks all over the formation.

In the fallout of free agency, the Raiders are just one more tackle away from a completed rebuild. And they should be able to draft that player at the top of the second round.

The other Raiders WRs/TEs are just supporting cast members.

Just a matter of when the Raiders turn to Mendoza over Cousins.

Kubiak seems to like the idea of sitting a young quarterback behind a veteran. If Kubiak isn’t confident in the offensive line/run game, he might not opt to throw a rookie signal-caller into the fire. Cousins makes a lot of sense as the veteran bridge quarterback who could start until they want to play Mendoza. Cousins signed a five-year deal with the Raiders, but it’s really just a one-year deal, given that the guaranteed money is only good for 2026.

I’d imagine that Cousins will be allowed to start, given how he knows the offense, but for how long remains TBD. He will be 38 years old this season. His 6.4 YPA and 84.8 passer rating were the second-lowest of his career last season (same with aDOT). He doesn’t have the same power in his throws since his Achilles injury. 29th in EPA/play, 26th in success rate, 28th in completion rate, 32nd in YPA. Aside from completion rate (because Penix pushed the ball downfield), Cousins was the second-best QB in Atlanta last year.

It’s very much possible he is totally cooked, and Mendoza doesn’t have to wait very long to take over. I thought it would be more around 8-9 weeks until the rookie took over, but now I feel it will be much closer to 3-4 games (also dependent on the Raiders’ scheduled bye week). If Cousins couldn’t hold off Michael Penix for an entire season, he probably is an underdog to hold off Mendoza for half a season.

Newcomer WR Jalen Nailor did play with Cousins for two years in Minnesota.

Carnell Tate (WR – TEN)

In somewhat of a surprising move (although if I had just stuck to my original mock draft, I would have gotten another one right), Carnell Tate went 4th overall to the Tennessee Titans. Robert Saleh was the head coach of the Jets when they drafted former Ohio State wideout Garrett Wilson 10th overall. He won Offensive Rookie of the Year.

And unlike with some projected landing spots before Thursday night, Tate slides into an offense where he can emerge as the true No. 1 alpha WR. And there’s a lot of upside here attached to second-year QB Cam Ward, in an offense led by new OC Brian Daboll.

Daboll obviously loves Wan’Dale Robinson, so Tate might not have bonkers target share from the jump, but his path to WR1 status is clearly in reach.