Welcome to the Thursday NBA DFS slate as we look toward the playoffs on the horizon. If you’re going to do NBA DFS, you have to keep in mind lineup announcements and stay tuned for late swapping. That is going to be the easiest way to stay ahead of the field and in the money. We have a solid six-game slate tonight, so you shouldn’t have to go too crazy when differentiating your lineups. In the end, it’s about making the right choices and picking your spots, which is why I’m here. Let’s break down the top plays for this slate.
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Primer
NBA DFS Core Plays
- DraftKings: $11,700
- FanDuel: $12,900
The narrative against Wemby here is that San Antonio is on the second night of a back-to-back. My counterpoint is that he is Victor Wembanyama. The price difference from DraftKings to FanDuel is stark and makes him a standout play on DK. The Clippers’ defense isn’t easy, but middle of the pack and capable of allowing a ceiling performance to Wemby. He’s gone over 50 fantasy points in seven straight games while going over 60 in four of his last five outings. With the playoffs around the corner, it seems San Antonio is leaning more on Wemby, with his usage rate at 36 percent in the last two weeks of play. With him being the last game of the slate, there’s plenty of opportunity for a late swap to or from Wemby as well, depending on ownership.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (PG – OKC)
- DraftKings: $10,400
- FanDuel: $10,600
SGA has been en fuego of late as the Thunder try to lock up the number one overall seed for the playoffs. I try to avoid a lot of narrative-based plays for DFS when considering roster options like revenge spots, but we’ve seen that when games matter, Shai responds to the call. For games that “matter more,” per se, there is data that shows the Thunder lean on their star guard more. Just last game against Detroit, SGA played 41 minutes and tallied 60-plus fantasy points. The Thunder are getting healthy again, so SGA’s usage might not be as insanely high as it’s been, but it’s hard to move off him right now. The Lakers come in as the 20th ranked defense, and Shai is actually priced down for where he’s been, so I’m buying stock here.
- DraftKings: $7,300
- FanDuel: $7,400
I expect him to be highly rostered tonight, but I’m all aboard the Zion train here. His price is way down from the $8,500 it’s peaked at, and the 232 point game total is the highest on the slate. When he’s healthy, Zion is capable of putting up over 40 fantasy points, which is well within reason here. Portland has allowed the fourth most fantasy points to opposing centers over their last 30 games, and while Zion isn’t a true center per se, the Trail Blazers are susceptible to opposing frontcourts. The Duke product’s minutes have seen a spike in his last six games, and with no Trey Murphy in the lineup, his usage should be above his average. I’m happy being over-owned on Zion on tonight’s slate.
NBA DFS Cash Game Targets
- DraftKings: $6,700
- FanDuel: $7,000
After recording a triple-double and being in the optimal lineup his last time out, Ayo Dosunmu’s price went…down? It doesn’t make much sense, but short-term memory and recency bias will lead to a lot of ownership for the Illinois star. Usually, I fade those types of plays, but a lot is lining up for Dosunmu here. His guard-forward eligibility already helps, as his flexibility provides options for roster construction. The Pistons’ defense is solid but has taken a step back without Cade Cunningham, and Ayo has been playing well aside from his nuclear output last time out. He’s gone over 40 fantasy points in four straight games, and Anthony Edwards might not play tonight, only bolstering Ayo’s projections and expected ownership.
- DraftKings: $7,000
- FanDuel: $7,300
On the other side of the ball, we have a similar situation. No Cade has obviously given Daniss Jenkins more opportunities, and he still feels underpriced. Since taking over the starting role, Jenkins has gone over 36 fantasy points in five of his eight games, covering 28 in all but one. His floor is high with his 36 minutes a night average since being inserted as the starting point guard. It still seems like his ceiling is limited, as we haven’t seen him reach 50 fantasy points yet. But the Minnesota defense takes a big step back away from home. In Minnesota, the Timberwolves rank third in defensive efficiency. That number drops to 18th outside of Minnesota. Jenkins is a clear high-floor play perfect for cash lineups.
- DraftKings: $5,800
- FanDuel: $6,200
Charlotte has been solid of late, going 10-5 in their last 15 games with a top-four offensive efficiency rating. They’ve been able to handle their defensive adversities, and Bridges has been a big part of that. The Charlotte forward is coming off a 39 fantasy point effort, and that’s against Brooklyn, a much less friendlier DFS opponent. Bridges has averaged 31 minutes a night, giving him a comfortable floor, while he is priced at his cheapest point all season. Obviously, he’s not the lead star on Charlotte, but he will be on the court, and Phoenix has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points a night to opposing power forwards. He’s a comfortable cash play here.
NBA DFS GPP Targets
- DraftKings: $12,200
- FanDuel: $12,800
It is always a reasonable option to roster Luka for any DFS slate, and his ownership doesn’t seem to be going off the rails against Oklahoma City. He is a volume monster with an insane 42 percent usage rate over the last two weeks of play. The Thunder may be tough defensively, but that’s already baked into the projection. There should be plenty of back-and-forth here with two of the West’s best teams while the Thunder get back to being healthy. He’s gone over 70 fantasy points in six of his last 11 games, and if he gets there tonight, he may be a must-have across your lineups.
- DraftKings: $8,500
- FanDuel: $8,600
With the stakes of today’s game high as both teams try to play themselves into the playoffs and off the play-in line, I expect the stars to shine and LaMelo to see the ball a lot more against Phoenix. On the road, the Suns’ defense drops eight spots, and Ball’s usage has stayed consistent at 31 percent in his last two weeks of play. We’ve seen the Hornets’ guard go over 60 fantasy points before, and his pricing is at a point where you can still get creative with how you fill out the rest of your lineup. I’m surprised Ball isn’t getting more love here, but I won’t be behind the 8-ball.
- DraftKings: $8,900
- FanDuel: $9,400
Among the higher-priced players tonight, Avdija appears to be slipping through the cracks. It’s still early in the day, and ownership can ebb and flow, but right now, he seems like a steal at this price. This is the highest total on the slate, and Avdija gets a big bump in play at home. New Orleans defense ranks 24th on the road this year, and they’ve allowed the third most fantasy points to opposing forwards over their last 30 games. Avdija’s 31 minutes a night with a 30 percent usage rate in this matchup at home is too good of an opportunity to pass up on, especially on DraftKings.
NBA DFS Value Plays
- DraftKings: $4,100
- FanDuel: $4,700
With Marcus Smart out of the lineup, LaRavia has slid into the starting lineup. He hasn’t exactly blown up sharing time with Luka Doncic, LeBron James, and the rest of the Lakers’ starters, but he’s still gone over 22 fantasy points twice and is coming off a game where he played 38 minutes. With his guard-forward status, he’s the perfect option to round out your lineup at such a low price, where he’s projected for 24 fantasy points.
- DraftKings: $5,600
- FanDuel: $5,800
For a GPP option that’s a bit cheaper, look no further than Toumani Camara. He scored over 50 fantasy points five games ago and over 40 earlier this week. This is the friendlier DFS matchup on a slate without many standout games, and he’s another player with guard and forward status. With his expected additional minutes with no Vit Krejci and Jerami Grant, he’s an easy play that should garner more rostership as the day progresses.
- DraftKings: $4,100
- FanDuel: $3,800
I promise I’m not just picking players who have guard-forward status, but it really does help with building lineups. For Richard, he almost acts as a placeholder before we get more news. Golden State is littered with injuries, with Steph Curry, De’Anthony Melton, Gui Santos, Kristaps Porzingis, Al Horford, Gary Payton, and Quinten Post all on the injury report dealing with something. There’s a chance the Warriors get their starters back, and Richard isn’t a must-have, but either way, I expect Richard to return significant value at his price tag. Make sure to stay updated on injury news, and Golden State-Cleveland offers a great opportunity for late swapping tonight.
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