5 Overvalued Quarterbacks to Avoid (2026 Fantasy Football)

When preparing for your fantasy football drafts, knowing which players to target and which to avoid is important. The amount of information available can be overwhelming, so a great way to condense the data and determine players to draft and others to leave for your leaguemates is to use our expert consensus fantasy football rankings compared to fantasy football average draft position (ADP). In this way, you can identify players the experts are willing to reach for at ADP and others they are not drafting until much later than average. Let’s dive into a few notable fantasy football quarterbacks Pat Fitzmaurice avoids in drafts.

2026 Fantasy Football Draft Advice: Quarterbacks to Avoid

Here are quarterbacks Pat Fitzmaurice avoids in fantasy football drafts.

Overvalued Quarterbacks to Avoid

Jalen Hurts (PHI)

After averaging at least 21 fantasy points per game from his first full season as a starter in 2021 to 2024, Jalen Hurts slipped to 19.1 fantasy points per game in 2025. A decrease in rushing production was largely to blame. Hurts’ 421 rushing yards last season marked a five-year low, and his streak of four straight seasons with double-digit rushing touchdowns was snapped, as Hurts had only eight TD runs in 2025. Kevin Patullo has been ousted as the Eagles’ playcaller, replaced by first-time NFL offensive coordinator Sean Mannion. As dysfunctional as the Eagles’ passing game seemed at times last season, the change in playcallers seems like a positive for Hurts. Philadelphia’s offensive line remains one of the league’s best, and Eagles GM Howie Roseman drafted two exciting new weapons for Hurts in WR Makai Lemon and TE Eli Stowers.

Jaxson Dart (NYG)

After selecting edge rusher Abdul Carter No. 3 overall in last year’s NFL Draft, the Giants traded back into the first round to grab Jaxson Dart of Ole Miss at No. 25. That move looks shrewd so far, as Dart acquitted himself extremely well in 12 starts last year despite having a skeleton crew of pass catchers following a season-ending injury to WR Malik Nabers. Dart completed 63.7% of his throws and averaged a respectable 6.7 yards per pass attempt, with 15 touchdown passes and five interceptions. Dart was dynamic as a runner, racking up 487 rushing yards and nine TD runs. But Dart was also a reckless runner at times. He took some hard hits, including one against the Bears in Week 10 that resulted in a concussion. But it’s appealing to fantasy managers that Dart is such a willing and able runner. Two reasons for concern: (1) Nabers has reportedly been slow to recover from his knee injury; and (2) new Giants offensive coordinator Matt Nagy isn’t considered one of the NFL’s top offensive designers.

Patrick Mahomes (KC)

Patrick Mahomes‘ fantasy appeal has diminished in recent years, and now the nine-year veteran is trying to recover from a major knee injury. Mahomes tore the ACL and LCL in his left knee late in the Chiefs’ Week 15 loss to the Chargers in mid-December. Reports say he has been rehabbing aggressively in hopes of starting the Chiefs’ Monday-night season opener against the Broncos on Sept. 14, which comes three days before his 31st birthday. Even if Mahomes is able to return for Week 1, his mobility could be compromised. Mahomes’ rushing production helped him get off to a fast fantasy start in 2025. Through eight weeks, he was QB1 in fantasy scoring at 25 points per game, fueled in part by 280 rushing yards and four TD runs. Mahomes finished the year tied for QB2 in fantasy points per game behind Josh Allen, after finishing QB11 in FPPG (six games minimum) in both 2023 and 2024. Kansas City didn’t make any significant additions to Mahomes’ pass-catching arsenal in the offseason, but the Chiefs added RB Kenneth Walker III, who could make Mahomes’ life easier by providing the Chiefs with a credible running threat.

Baker Mayfield (TB)

This is a crossroads year for Baker Mayfield, who went from QB3 in fantasy points per game in 2024 to QB19 last season. Mayfield’s completion percentage fell from 71.4% in 2024 to 63.2% in 2025. He went from 7.9 yards per pass attempt in 2024 to 6.8 yards per attempt in 2025. Injuries may have been at least partly to blame. WRs Mike Evans and Chris Godwin each missed about half the season. WR Emeka Egbuka started fast, then hurt his hamstring and fell off dramatically. The Buccaneers’ offensive line was banged up early in the season. Mayfield himself dealt with a shoulder injury. Mayfield had a good season with Dave Canales as his playcaller in 2023 and an even better season with Liam Coen as his playcaller in 2024. Mayfield had a disappointing 2025 season in tandem with Buccaneers offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard. Now he gets his fourth playcaller in as many seasons, new Buccaneers offensive coordinator Zac Robinson. A bounce-back season for the 31-year-old Mayfield is entirely possible, but we probably shouldn’t assume he’ll return to his 2023-2024 form.

Daniel Jones (IND)

Although he tore his Achilles in early December, Daniels Jones says he expects to be 100% ready for Week 1 of 2026. Through the first 10 weeks of the 2025 season, Jones looked like an MVP candidate while guiding the Colts to an 8-2 start. He completed 69.9% of his passes over those first 10 games, averaged 8.3 yards per pass attempt, threw 15 TD passes and seven interceptions, and added five rushing touchdowns. Jones was QB5 in fantasy scoring over that stretch. But then Jones fractured his fibula, costing him some mobility and limiting his effectiveness as a passer, before the late-season Achilles tear. It’s encouraging that Jones is upbeat about his recovery, but mobility is a big part of his game (both in real life and fantasy), and it’s fair to wonder whether Jones will have anything close to his usual mobility. Jones has also been notoriously turnover-prone during his career. Monitor Jones’ recovery closely in the run-up to the 2026 season.

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