There are many enticing quarterback options for the 2026 fantasy football season. Two names gamers have frequently loved to roster are ones to avoid at their average draft position (ADP) cost.
The first is one of the NFL’s best passers attached to a pass-heavy offense, and the second is the most accomplished quarterback in the NFL coming off a bounce-back but injury-shortened campaign.
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Fantasy Football Quarterbacks to Avoid
Joe Burrow (QB – CIN) | ADP: 50 (QB3)
Joe Burrow is unlikely to be a total disaster in fantasy football leagues, assuming he doesn’t suffer another injury. According to RotoViz’s pace app, Cincinnati’s 64% situation-neutral pass rate since 2023 is the highest in the NFL, and 5% clear of the Chiefs and Vikings, who are second at 59%.
Per the Fantasy Points Data Suite, the Bengals were second in pass rate over expectation (7.5% PROE) in 2023, first (11.9%) in 2024 and tied for sixth (4.3%) in 2025.
Zac Taylor trusts Burrow to sling the rock. According to StatHead, Burrow is fourth in passing yards per game (258.2) since 2023. He averaged 36.5 pass attempts per game and was tied for third in passing touchdown rate (5.9%) among 37 quarterbacks with at least 500 pass attempts during that timeframe.
Out of that same sample, Burrow was also tied for 11th in adjusted net yards per pass attempt (6.6) and fifth in quarterback rating (101.9).
Burrow is unquestionably one of the NFL’s top passers and quarterbacks. He doesn’t bring much with his legs, though. Out of the same sample of 37 quarterbacks with at least 500 pass attempts since 2023, Burrow is tied for 25th in rushing yards per game (9.4) and has just two rushing touchdowns.
As a result, Burrow is the QB5 in fantasy points per game (18.70) since 2023, narrowly edging out the four quarterbacks directly behind him, who all scored at least 18.26 fantasy points per game.
Justin Herbert was the QB10 in fantasy points per game among quarterbacks who played at least eight games in 2025, scoring 18.7 fantasy points per game, which is precisely Burrow’s three-year average since 2023.
In Burrow’s career year in 2024, when he led the NFL in completions (460), pass attempts (652), passing yards per game (289.3) and passing touchdowns (43), per Pro-Football-Reference, he was tied with Baker Mayfield for the QB3 in fantasy points per game at 22.5.
Josh Allen was the QB1 in fantasy points per game (22) among signal-callers who played at least eight games in 2025, so Burrow could technically finish as the QB1 if he duplicated his career year and the other dual-threat quarterbacks fail to produce at least one who clears 24 fantasy points per game again.
However, Allen’s 22 fantasy points per game in 2025 were the fewest by a QB1 since 2017. Additionally, Allen’s fantasy points per game surge to 23.4 if excluding his Week 18 contest, when he took just one snap to extend his consecutive starts streak.
Furthermore, Matthew Stafford scored only 21.1 fantasy points per game last season, despite leading the NFL in passing touchdowns (46) and passing yards per game (276.9) while securing the MVP hardware.
Burrow is strictly a pocket passer at this point in his career, and the opportunity cost of passing on running backs and wide receivers at Burrow’s ADP is too steep when there isn’t much that separates him from the next handful of quarterbacks selected after him.
The Bengals signal-caller essentially has to have another career year to break even, and even a slightly less favorable passing touchdown rate will lead to him performing at his three-year scoring average of 18.7 fantasy points per game. That won’t cut it at his fantasy football ADP.
Patrick Mahomes (QB – KC) | ADP: 93.3 (QB13)
Patrick Mahomes was only the QB11 in fantasy points per game (17.57) from 2023 through 2024. Last season, he climbed back into upper-echelon fantasy football quarterback territory, tying with Drake Maye and Matthew Stafford for the QB2 in fantasy points per game (21.1) among signal-callers with at least eight games played.
Moreover, the Chiefs continued to play a pass-happy brand of football, ranking second in PROE (6.8%). Surely, Mahomes must be a steal as the QB13, right?
Nope. He underwent surgery to repair his ACL and LCL on December 15th. Fortunately, Mahomes is “in a good spot” in his rehab and is hoping not to miss any games.
The two-time Associated Press and Pro Football Writers of America MVP and three-time Super Bowl MVP isn’t included in this piece due to expectations of him missing games early in the year. Sure, Mahomes could suffer a setback, but I expect him to suit up in Week 1.
Being on the field is only part of the equation, though. Mahomes’ success in fantasy leagues last season was largely driven by his legs.
In just 14 games, Mahomes set career highs in rushing yards per game (30.1) and rushing touchdowns (five). His previous highs were 24.3 rushing yards per game in 2023 and four rushing touchdowns in 2022. Mahomes ran for two touchdowns or fewer in all of his other seasons in the NFL.
Mahomes’ 422 rushing yards and five rushing touchdowns amounted to 72.2 fantasy points. Mahomes scored 295.7 fantasy points last season, so his rushing production made up 24.4% of his fantasy scoring.
From 2022 through 2024, Mahomes averaged 21.5 rushing yards per game and scored six rushing touchdowns in 49 games. If he were to return to his 2022-2024 rushing form after reconstructive knee surgery, that would be a favorable outcome for 2026. Expecting him to duplicate a career year on the ground after knee surgery would be foolish.
A return from knee surgery could also impact Mahomes’ ability on second-reaction passes.
According to the Fantasy Points Data Suite, among 32 quarterbacks with at least 125 dropbacks on plays that took at least 2.5 seconds to throw in 2025, Mahomes was dead last in completion rate (48.7%) but 11th in passing yards per game (130.3), tied for 23rd in passing touchdowns (eight) and tied for 21st in fantasy points per dropback (0.44).
Additionally, according to Pro Football Focus (PFF), among 43 quarterbacks with at least 150 dropbacks, Mahomes was their 12th-ranked passer on plays where he held the ball for 2.5 seconds or more in the pocket and seventh in big-time throw rate (8.1%).
Mahomes can’t afford to lose passing efficiency and effectiveness on extended plays if his return from knee surgery also impacts his rushing.
Mahomes has also been more good than great as a passer in recent years. Among 37 quarterbacks with at least 500 pass attempts since 2023, here’s where Mahomes ranks:
- 6th in passing yards per game (254.3)
- 19th in completion percentage (66%),
- Tied for 8th in passing touchdowns (75)
- Tied for 21st in passing touchdown rate (4.5%)
- 19th in adjusted net yards per pass attempt (6.2)
- 21st in interception rate (2.1%)
- 21st in Quarterback Rating (92)
Frankly, it’s OK for people to admit Mahomes hasn’t been an S-tier quarterback in the previous three years.
Inexplicably, the Chiefs didn’t make any sizable investments in the pass-catching corps in free agency. Rashee Rice has been rehabbing a cleanup procedure on his knee during a 30-day jail sentence that’s set to end on June 16th. While the previous sentence might sound like fan fiction from Kansas City’s rival fanbases, it’s a reality.
Travis Kelce is another year older after producing a career-low 1.47 yards per route run (YPRR) in 2025, per PFF. Xavier Worthy has been a disappointment through two NFL seasons.
According to the Fantasy Points Data Suite, among 84 wideouts with at least 250 routes in 2025, Worthy was 33rd in yards per route run (1.61) against man coverage and 55th in yards per route run (1.42) against zone coverage. After recording 1.61 YPRR as a rookie in 2024, that number dipped to 1.40 in 2025, ranking 55th out of 86 wideouts with at least 250 routes.
Worthy’s apologists will point to a shoulder injury on friendly fire with Kelce in Week 1 as an excuse for the diminutive speedster’s pitiful sophomore campaign.
Instead of excusing the dud, maybe they should be concerned that a player who measured 5-foot-11 and 165 pounds at the NFL Scouting Combine was so easily injured. They should also worry about him holding up against the physicality of NFL defenders, let alone another collision with his own teammate.
Finally, it might be ambitious to expect the Chiefs to remain one of the NFL’s most pass-happy offenses after their most significant offseason addition on offense was running back Kenneth Walker III.
Their offseason actions would suggest they want to improve their running game, possibly leaning on Walker to take some work off Mahomes’ plate in his return from knee surgery.
As the QB13 in ADP, Mahomes is on the fringe of being selected as a starter in 12-team leagues, and positive camp reports will likely push him up the quarterback rankings. The juice isn’t worth the squeeze at a top-100 pick for Mahomes.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
