If you’re only going to do one thing to prepare for a fantasy football draft, it should be to unanchor yourself from the default rankings and average draft position (ADP) of the platform you are playing on.
Even the most hardcore fantasy sites have their own quirks. As this article will shortly demonstrate, more casual platforms like ESPN can have some truly absurd values. This is especially true early in the offseason, when ADP sample sizes are still relatively small.
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Best Fantasy Football Draft Values on ESPN
To help identify the best values in ESPN fantasy football drafts right now, I will be comparing ESPN ADP to FantasyPros’ expert consensus rankings (ECR). The consensus rankings aren’t perfect, but they’re consistently more accurate than any one site’s ADP … especially ESPN’s.
Any player ranked much higher in ECR than ADP is probably one to target heading into your ESPN drafts. Without further ado, here are the three most obvious examples.
Justin Herbert (QB – LAC) | ESPN ADP: 127.1/ECR: 69
This one is absolutely crazy. The 58-pick gap between Justin Herbert’s ECR and his ESPN ADP isn’t just the largest in the top 100 players, it’s the largest in the top 300. Even compared to players way farther down the draft board, where each spot matters far less, Herbert is the biggest value.
To be fair, this gap is slightly inflated due to structural factors. Expert rankers are likely assuming a league size of 12 teams, while ESPN defaults to a 10-team format.
This lowers the value of non-elite options at one-off positions like quarterback and tight end. With his 127.1 fantasy football ADP, Herbert is the QB15 on ESPN. If he were the QB15 in ECR, he would be over two full rounds higher at 101 overall.
But, in case it wasn’t already clear, Herbert isn’t the QB15 in ECR. He’s the QB7. That’s an absolutely massive gap, taking him from a backup even in 12-team formats to a borderline top-half starting option.
Personally, I’m not quite as high on Herbert as the expert consensus. His upside in new offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel’s offense is massive, but there are a ton of exciting upside quarterback options this season.
But even if you’re massively bearish on Herbert this season, I don’t see any valid argument for his QB15 ADP. That’s so egregious that, if you can trust your league mates to follow ADP, waiting to draft Herbert in the double-digit rounds is undeniably the optimal quarterback strategy on ESPN at this moment.
Nico Collins (WR – HOU) | ESPN ADP: 23.8/ECR: 12
In a 12-team league, Nico Collins’ ADP is essentially one round behind his ECR. Compared to the massive gap we just saw for Justin Herbert, that may seem negligible. But this early in the draft, a 12-pick difference represents a massive opportunity. The difference between a late first-rounder and a late second-rounder is huge.
Like Herbert, Collins exemplifies a larger trend. The experts are consistently higher on wide receivers, especially those in the first few rounds, than ESPN drafters.
Of the top 15 wideouts in ECR, only Rashee Rice isn’t at least 25% cheaper on ESPN, and that’s probably just because ESPN ADP hasn’t fully accounted for the double-whammy arrest/surgery announcement we got for him a couple weeks ago.
But Collins stands out as a juicy value even among this undervalued cohort of early-round wide receivers. The 66% gap between his ADP and his ECR trails only Ja’Marr Chase, whose number is overstated because of his first overall ranking.
I fully recommend you take advantage of this discounted price on Collins. Although he has been “just” a back-end fantasy WR1 over the last two years, the 27-year-old is a genuine top-tier talent at the position. Over the last three seasons, he has ranked seventh, second and fifth among qualified receivers in Pro Football Focus (PFF) receiving grade.
If you prefer your stats a little more objective, Collins was second, third and ninth in yards per route run (YPRR) over those same three seasons. The only player with a comparable resume over that span is fantasy god Puka Nacua, and even ESPN drafters are selecting him early in the first round.
At his WR8 ADP on ESPN, Collins will pay off his price if he simply keeps up his performance from the last two seasons. If C.J. Stroud and the Texans’ offense can take even a small step forward, he has a truly elite ceiling. Landing Collins in the late second round to pair with an elite RB1 like Bijan Robinson or Jahmyr Gibbs is an absolute no-brainer for anyone drafting on ESPN.
Tucker Kraft (TE – GB) | ESPN ADP: 111.4/ECR: 68
Unlike our previous two values, Tucker Kraft’s depressed ESPN ADP does not reflect a broader positional trend. ESPN drafters are just straight-up out on Kraft individually. He is the TE6 in consensus rankings, but just the TE12 on ESPN.
This value is absolutely worth taking. Yes, Kraft is coming off a torn ACL, which is almost certainly the cause of his low ADP. But that’s not the massive red flag it once was, as more and more players are returning to both the field and their pre-injury forms faster than anticipated — just look at Kraft’s teammate, Christian Watson, last year.
The most recent update we received on Kraft’s health was a quote from Matt LaFleur suggesting he might even be ready by the start of training camp. Even if that’s optimistic, there’s no reason currently to think Kraft won’t be active in Week 1.
And the last time we saw Kraft on the field, his fantasy performance was elite. Through Week 7 of last season, Kraft led all tight ends with 16.1 PPR points per game. He also posted a stellar 2.71 YPRR, as well as a monstrous 11.1 yards after the catch (YAC) per target (easily the highest of any qualified tight end over that span).
I don’t say this lightly as a 49ers fan, but Kraft seemed genuinely on track to emerge as the next George Kittle, at least in terms of playmaking ability with the ball in his hands.
Yes, there’s downside risk in Kraft’s profile. If he is a step slower coming off a major injury, his YAC-reliant production could take a big hit. Although it’s less crowded than in previous years, the Packers’ offense also still has multiple other solid young pass-catchers, so he’s not likely to ever be a true target-hog.
But those risks are baked into Kraft’s ESPN ADP. He can regress massively from last season and still easily beat his TE12 price tag. If he returns to elite fantasy form, he will be a genuine league-winner for anyone who landed him outside of the top 100 picks.
Just like with Herbert, Kraft’s current value is so juicy that building your entire tight end strategy around him on ESPN is a viable option. Just be careful if you have savvy league mates who might also be aware of this screaming value.
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Ted Chmyz is a fantasy football contributor for FantasyPros.com. Find him on Twitter and Bluesky @Tchmyz for more fantasy content or to ask questions.