As we approach the end of July, when NFL training camps begin, the wave of news naturally calms down. Now is the perfect time to familiarize yourself with player rankings before the floodgates open. Using CBS’ PPR average draft position (ADP), here are six overvalued fantasy football players to avoid in drafts.
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Overvalued Fantasy Football Players to Avoid on CBS
Bucky Irving (RB – TB) | ADP: 45 (RB21)
You can’t deny the value Bucky Irving provided us in 2024. He played all 17 games and finished as the RB13 in PPR scoring after entering the season as the RB52 in expert consensus rankings (ECR).
Irving was electric, averaging 5.4 yards per carry while ranking fifth in explosive yards and fifth in missed tackles forced. He was also 14th among running backs in first-down runs, according to the Fantasy Points Data Suite.
Fast forward to last season. Even before the injury that sidelined him, Irving averaged just 3.3 yards per carry while ranking 32nd in explosive yards, 45th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 33rd in runs for first downs at his position.
While his first-down runs improved post-injury, Irving’s explosiveness and tackle-breaking ability remained well below his rookie season levels. Health is obviously a concern, and the Buccaneers made Kenneth Gainwell a priority in free agency while retaining Sean Tucker, who scored six red-zone touchdowns last season.
At RB21, Irving needs to repeat his rookie season to pay off. With Tampa Bay deploying a full rotation of backs, it feels extremely hard to replicate.
Luther Burden III (WR – CHI) | ADP: 46 (WR21)
The hype around Luther Burden III has gone too far. He is ranked ahead of more proven veterans like Terry McLaurin, DJ Moore and Mike Evans. I get it. Burden flashed down the stretch and was on fire over his final six games.
From Week 13 on, among receivers with at least 100 routes run, Burden ranked third in yards per route run (YPRR), fifth in targets per route run (TPRR) and fourth in first downs per route run, according to the Fantasy Points Data Suite.
The efficiency is impressive, but it came in a small sample size in the grand scheme of things. During this same span, Parker Washington and Christian Watson ranked close to Burden in those same categories. All three receivers finished inside the top four in YPRR.
Burden is priced at his ceiling as the WR21 and should be much closer to Washington, who had a similar late-season surge, yet comes at a much cheaper cost.
Jayden Daniels (QB – WSH) | ADP: 67 (QB5)
My issue with drafting Jayden Daniels as a top-five quarterback is that there should be a discount. Finishing as the QB5 overall and in fantasy points per game in 2024 was his ceiling. Last season, he played in only seven games, finishing as the QB18 in fantasy points per game.
With Terry McLaurin limited to 10 games last season, Deebo Samuel and Zach Ertz were the top two target options in the offense. Neither has been re-signed, and both remain free agents.
The Commanders did add Chig Okonkwo, whom I do like. The fact is, he is unproven and has failed to eclipse 600 receiving yards in a single season. The rest of the pass-catching group has major question marks as well. Luke McCaffrey has a combined 29 catches in two seasons, and Treylon Burks has been a first-round disappointment.
Daniels obviously gives you a solid rushing floor, but you’re paying for everything to go right again. Why pay up for Daniels when you can draft Justin Herbert, who finished second in rushing at the position last season?
Both Caleb Williams and Trevor Lawrence were top-10 rushers among quarterbacks, while Dak Prescott makes up for the lack of rushing with much better receiving options.
After last year’s injuries and less proven talent around him, the risk far outweighs the reward of selecting Daniels at his current ADP.
TreVeyon Henderson (RB – NE) | ADP: 57 (RB24)
TreVeyon Henderson fits well in the Patriots’ backfield as an explosive complement to Rhamondre Stevenson.
Many expected Henderson to push Stevenson aside after the latter’s fumbling issues in 2024. However, he cleaned that up, coughing it up only three times after fumbling seven times the year prior.
Head coach Mike Vrabel had success with a power running game in Tennessee, and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels also has a history of using bigger backs.
According to the Fantasy Points Data Suite, Stevenson averaged more yards after contact per attempt and missed tackles forced per attempt than Henderson. He was also given more carries inside the 5-yard line.
Henderson is exciting, but I would prefer to target other running backs ranked below him in this range, such as Jadarian Price or Tony Pollard, who both project for larger roles.
George Kittle (TE – SF) | ADP: 90 (TE9)
It’s not easy to fade someone like George Kittle, who historically finishes as a top-five fantasy tight end.
Despite missing five games early in the season with a hamstring injury, he still ranked first in YPRR, third in TPRR and second in receiving yards per game among tight ends with at least 200 routes run, per the Fantasy Points Data Suite.
It’s fair to question how ready he will be in 2026, as he is recovering from a torn Achilles suffered in the 49ers’ Wild Card playoff game last season. They don’t need to force him back because Jake Tonges has proven he can be reliable in relief.
In the five early-season games Kittle missed, Tonges ranked fourth in receptions and 10th in receiving yards per game while averaging 6.2 targets per game, per the Fantasy Points Data Suite. Mike Evans is also now wearing a 49ers jersey and should eat into red-zone and end-zone usage, areas where he consistently ranked near the top of the league.
Considering the position’s depth and increased competition for touchdown opportunities, Kittle is easier to fade at TE9 than his name value and history might suggest.
Michael Wilson (WR – ARI) | ADP: 76 (WR34)
I’m fading Michael Wilson because what looks like a breakout might be closer to a mirage. He finished the season with career highs in targets (126), receptions (78), yards (1,006) and touchdowns (seven). Let’s not forget the final five games where only one wide receiver outscored him in PPR points per game, and that was Puka Nacua. The late-season spike is hard to ignore.
However, a closer look at Wilson’s production shows that much of the breakout came while Marvin Harrison Jr. was missing time:
| PPR PPG | Targets/G | Rec. Yards/G | |
| Marvin Harrison Active | 7.6 | 4.8 | 34.0 |
| Marvin Harrison Inactive | 25.9 | 13.6 | 119.6 |
More than half of his total receiving yardage came in games Harrison missed. Fantasy managers are drafting Wilson as the WR32 based on the production that came without Arizona’s top wideout.
The spike weeks are still possible. But with Harrison expected to be back healthy, Trey McBride still commanding targets and Jeremiyah Love added to the backfield, I will let someone else fall for this mirage.
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