After nearly a week off from MLB DFS contests, we’re back today looking at the slates on both DraftKings and FanDuel. The DraftKings’ Featured Slate begins at 3:05 Eastern Time and includes eight games. FanDuel’s Main slate begins at the same time but only includes seven games. The matchup between Pittsburgh and Cleveland isn’t included.
Saturday’s Top MLB DFS Picks & Player Props
Sunday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings (7/18)
- Jesus Luzardo has posted remarkable underlying data all season, but it took a while for the actual production to catch up. He has a career-best 50.5% groundball rate to go along with a 29.4% strikeout rate. Still, his ERA as recently as June 9th was still 4.56. Since then, he’s made six starts with a 1.45 ERA and 1.73 FIP, with 56 strikeouts in only 37.1 innings. All six starts have been at least 30 points on FanDuel.
- Joey Cantillo has had six starts this season with seven or more strikeouts. Five of them have come in his last seven starts, including three of his last six with nine strikeouts. He also hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in his last six starts, which has lowered his season ERA to 3.56.
- Since coming back from the minor leagues, Brandon Pfaadt has had three pretty strong starts. He’s won all three games with only three earned runs allowed in 15.2 innings. The strikeouts have been a bit low, with only 10. Still, for a relatively low price point, you can have a player with at least 22 points on FanDuel in all three of his most recent starts.
Suggested Lineup Stacks
Kansas City Royals Projected Lineup (7/18)
After nearly a week off from MLB DFS contests, we’re back today looking at the slates on both DraftKings and FanDuel. The DraftKings’ Featured Slate begins at 3:05 Eastern Time and includes eight games. FanDuel’s Main slate begins at the same time but only includes seven games. The matchup between Pittsburgh and Cleveland isn’t included.
Saturday’s Top MLB DFS Picks & Player Props
Sunday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings (7/18)
- Jesus Luzardo has posted remarkable underlying data all season, but it took a while for the actual production to catch up. He has a career-best 50.5% groundball rate to go along with a 29.4% strikeout rate. Still, his ERA as recently as June 9th was still 4.56. Since then, he’s made six starts with a 1.45 ERA and 1.73 FIP, with 56 strikeouts in only 37.1 innings. All six starts have been at least 30 points on FanDuel.
- Joey Cantillo has had six starts this season with seven or more strikeouts. Five of them have come in his last seven starts, including three of his last six with nine strikeouts. He also hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in his last six starts, which has lowered his season ERA to 3.56.
- Since coming back from the minor leagues, Brandon Pfaadt has had three pretty strong starts. He’s won all three games with only three earned runs allowed in 15.2 innings. The strikeouts have been a bit low, with only 10. Still, for a relatively low price point, you can have a player with at least 22 points on FanDuel in all three of his most recent starts.
Suggested Lineup Stacks
Kansas City Royals Projected Lineup (7/18)
| POS |
PLAYER |
DraftKings Salary |
FanDuel Salary |
| C |
Carter Jensen |
$5,200 |
$3,100 |
| SS |
Bobby Witt Jr. |
$6,600 |
$3,800 |
| OF/1B |
Jac Caglianone |
$4,600 |
$2,800 |
| OF |
Lane Thomas |
$3,500 |
$2,600 |
| 1B |
Vinnie Pasquantino |
$4,100 |
$2,900 |
| 1B/C (FD) |
Salvador Perez |
$3,300 |
$2,600 |
| 2B/OF (FD) |
Michael Massey |
$3,600 |
$2,600 |
| 3B/
2B/OF (FD) |
Nick Loftin |
$3,200 |
$2,800 |
| OF/2B (FD) |
Isaac Collins |
$2,500 |
$2,800 |
- The Kansas City Royals have a matchup against Griffin Canning today. Canning’s 1-7 record and 6.47 ERA are not indicative of how he has actually pitched. His 6.47 ERA is in the bottom 10 of all pitchers with at least 50 innings pitched. However, his 4.68 expected ERA and 4.72 FIP are far from good.
- The Royals’ offense is still missing Maikel Garcia, but otherwise is essentially back to full strength with the return of Vinnie Pasquantino. Any Royals’ stack has to begin with Bobby Witt Jr. While he only has 13 home runs, his profile actually looks stronger than ever with a career-best 53.3% hard-hit rate.
- After a scorching stretch in mid-June, Jac Caglianone has only one home run in his past 17 games. He still has three doubles and a triple in that same span, so he hasn’t been completely devoid of power. As expected for a left-handed batter, he’s been better against right-handed pitching this season. 23 of his 32 extra-base hits have come against right-handed pitchers like Canning.
- If you’re looking for a thrifty option to put into your lineup, consider Isaac Collins. Today’s game is at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City. Collins has an .803 OPS in home games, with four of his five home runs coming in home games.
Philadelphia Phillies Projected Lineup (7/18)
| POS |
PLAYER |
DraftKings Salary |
FanDuel Salary |
| SS |
Trea Turner |
$5,100 |
$3,000 |
| OF |
Kyle Schwarber |
$6,100 |
$4,100 |
| 1B |
Bryce Harper |
$5,400 |
$3,700 |
| 3B |
Alec Bohm |
$2,800 |
$2,700 |
| OF/SS/
3B/2B (FD) |
Edmundo Sosa |
$2,500 |
$2,600 |
| OF |
Brandon Marsh |
$4,400 |
$3,200 |
| OF |
Derek Hill |
$2,100 |
$2,500 |
| C |
J.T. Realmuto |
$3,600 |
$2,800 |
| 2B/SS (FD) |
Bryson Stott |
$3,900 |
$2,900 |
- The Philadelphia Phillies have a matchup today against left-handed pitcher Sean Manaea. Philadelphia has actually struggled against left-handed pitchers this season, with a team OPS of .664. That being said, there are so many batters in the Phillies lineup who have a history of success against Manaea.
- Let’s start our stack of Phillies with Bryce Harper. Harper has held his own against left-handed pitchers in his career with a career OPS of .822, but this season it has fallen to .648. A matchup with Manaea could get him back on track. Harper has gone 7-for-21(.333) against Manaea in his career with three extra-base hits, including a home run.
- A second Phillies batter who has had success in his career against Manaea is Alec Bohm. Bohm has gone 6-for-18 (.333) against Manaea with two extra-base hits, including a home run. Bohm’s been much better in home games this season, with a .724 OPS in home games compared to .545 in road games. Today’s game is in Philadelphia.
- Edmundo Sosa has a specialty against left-handed pitchers. That’s been the case in his whole career. His career OPS against right-handed pitchers is .666, but it jumps to .788 against left-handed pitchers. He’s also had success against Manaea, having gone 7-for-16 (.438) against Manaea in his career with five extra-base hits, including a home run.
Core Studs
- Michael Harris has a matchup today against left-handed pitcher MacKenzie Gore. Typically, we would look to avoid left-handed batter vs left-handed pitcher matchups, but Harris has a history of success off Gore. He’s gone 4-for-15 against Gore with three extra-base hits, including a pair of home runs.
- With his well-balanced skillset and switch-hitting profile, Bryan Reynolds is always an option. However, if you want to maximize your chances of him delivering a big game, he’s typically more of a power hitter from the right side of the plate. His OPS against left-handed pitchers is .949, which is over 100 points higher than against right-handed pitchers. His matchup today is left-handed pitcher Joey Cantillo.
- Junior Caminero avoided disaster when he was hit by a pitch on the hand in the All-Star Game. It must be fine as he already hit a home run yesterday. It’s not much of a surprise as he can hit home runs against anyone, but has performed even better against left-handed pitchers like the one he faces today in Patrick Sandoval. His OPS against left-handed pitchers is 1.048.
Value Plays/Punts
- Heriberto Hernandez was on a tear before the All-Star break. He already has 10 extra-base hits in July, with five of them being home runs. He’s also been better this season against left-handed pitchers with a .925 OPS in those matchups. His matchup today is left-handed pitcher Shane Drohan.
- If you are looking to be very thrifty, take a look at Andruw Monasterio. Yes, the same Monasterio who had eight home runs in the first three years of his career in over 200 games. The Red Sox have turned him into a platoon player, and he’s more than holding his own against left-handed pitching with a .916 OPS. That’s 12 extra-base hits, including four home runs, in only 68 at-bats. Today’s matchup is against left-handed pitcher Ian Seymour.
- Brandon Nimmo‘s shelf life as a Value Play feels limited. His production will likely soon catch up to what his metrics have shown all year and push his price above the Value Play threshold. He’s had three multi-hit games in his past five games, with four of those hits going for extra bases. Maybe he’s finally starting to catch up to his career-best marks in average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate.
Saturday’s Top 3 Underdog Player Props
The top recommendation at starting pitcher for this slate is also the pitcher I’m looking at to go over his strikeout prop. Jesus Luzardo has gone over 6.5 strikeouts in five of his past six starts. The one game he missed in that span was a six strikeout game against the New York Mets. That’s his matchup again today.
Sam Antonacci is the exact type of player that I love to take the over on Hits + Runs + RBI props. He’s a top of the order bat who rarely strikes out or walks. That means that most nights he should have at least four opportunities to find ways for hits, runs, or RBI. He’s gone over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI in 10 of his past 15 games, including the last three games.
Taj Bradley can be a bit erratic, but he’s definitely in the midst of a strong streak right now. He’s gone over 5.5 strikeouts in five of his past six games. The Cubs can be a difficult matchup for strikeouts, but Bailey Ober struck out seven batters yesterday in just over five innings, and he is not the same caliber of strikeout pitcher as Bradley is.
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