We ranked every running back by projected season-long fantasy football points to build a “projection rank,” then compared that to each back’s actual expert consensus rank (ECR). These are the backs where the raw, points-based projection is significantly lower on the player than our experts’ rank.
- 2026 Fantasy Football Expert Rankings
- Fantasy Football Dynasty Rankings
- Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer
- Best Fantasy Football Rankings
2026 Fantasy Football Draft Advice: Running Backs Projections Hate
Here are running backs fantasy football projections hate for 2026.
Saquon Barkley (PHI) — ECR: RB7 | Projection Rank: RB10 | Projected FPTS: 245.0 | Diff: -3
I tried to tell people last year, but few wanted to listen. After an insane 2024 season, Saquon Barkley was poised to come back down to earth some in 2025. Well, it happened. Barkley finished with 317 touches and 1,413 total yards as the RB14 in fantasy points per game. Part of this could be traced to natural regression, but also, Barkley had a decent dip in efficiency. In 2024, Barkley had an insane 3.55 yards before contact per attempt, which easily led all running backs (minimum 100 carries, per Fantasy Points Data). Last year, that number fell to 2.11, which was 23rd among 49 qualifying backs, essentially a league-average number. From 2024 to 2025, Barkley’s explosive run rate dropped from 7.2% (fourth-best) to 4.6% (20th), and his yards after contact per attempt dipped from 2.26 (35th) to 1.96 (39th). Barkley lived off explosive runs and easily getting into the second level of defenses in 2024, but he found more uphill sledding last year. His volume should finish in the neighborhood of 300 touches with double-digit touchdown upside. That should lock him into top-15 running back status with possible top 5-7 upside if the offensive line can stay healthy and the Eagles’ passing attack can also bounce back. If the aerial attack can get right, this team and Barkley will have more scoring opportunities in 2026 (last year, 28th in red-zone scoring opportunities per game).
Omarion Hampton (LAC) — ECR: RB9 | Projection Rank: RB12 | Projected FPTS: 237.8 | Diff: -3
Last year, Omarion Hampton‘s rookie season was derailed by an ankle injury in Week 5. When he came back, he wasn’t close to 100% healthy and had only one game with over a 55% snap rate. Any games after Week 4 last year, I’m just tossing in the trash because that wasn’t the “real” Hampton. In 2025, in Weeks 1-4, Hampton averaged 17 touches and 95 total yards as the RB13 in fantasy points per game. In that small sample of games, he posted a 7.4% explosive run rate, a 19% missed tackle rate, and 2.54 yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). If he had kept up that pace the entire year in those three categories, he would have ranked fourth, tenth, and eighth in those categories (minimum 100 carries). Those are impressive numbers and speak to his talent and upside in 2026 as Mike McDaniel’s possible bellcow. Hampton also contributed through the air in his first four NFL games with a 10.1% target share, 27.5 receiving yards per game, and 1.12 yards per route run. McDaniel is sure to get Hampton involved through the air after designing offenses of the last three seasons that have ranked third, third, and seventh in target share to the running back position. Yes, I know that Hampton isn’t De’Von Achane, but this is still a feather in Hampton’s cap. Hampton should be a rock-solid RB1 with massive upside in 2026.
Kyren Williams (LAR) — ECR: RB13 | Projection Rank: RB16 | Projected FPTS: 223.1 | Diff: -3
Kyren Williams continues to motor along with RB1 seasons. Last year, he was the RB10 in fantasy points per game after seasons as the RB10 and RB2 in fantasy points per game. Williams had to deal with more work for Blake Corum last year, but he still retained his lead role overall and in the red zone. In Weeks 7-18, Williams still saw 63% of the red zone rushing attempts while Corum helped him with the heavy lifting on early downs in between the 20s. With the workload lightened a tad, Williams did post improved rushing efficiency metrics, ranking 21st in explosive run rate, 25th in missed tackle rate, and 18th in yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). Williams should remain the lead back for one of the NFL’s best offenses in 2026 and turn in another low-end RB1 season.
James Cook III (BUF) — ECR: RB5 | Projection Rank: RB7 | Projected FPTS: 253.5 | Diff: -2
Well, so much for all of the regression talk about James Cook last year. Cook crushed all of the haters, improving his stock as the RB6 in fantasy points per game. He led the NFL in rushing yards (1,621) while finishing third in rushing attempts and sixth in rushing touchdowns (tied). Cook had 14 total touchdowns compared to the 18 that he spiked in the previous season. Cook remained extremely efficient as a rusher, ranking 15th in explosive run rate and 11th in yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). His passing game usage was nearly identical to the previous season, with 40 targets (38 targets in 2024) and 8.8 yards per reception (8.1 in 2024). We can quibble about where Cook sits in the RB1 rankings in 2026, but he remains a rock-solid RB1 in one of the best offenses in the NFL.
Ashton Jeanty (LV) — ECR: RB6 | Projection Rank: RB8 | Projected FPTS: 247.5 | Diff: -2
Ashton Jeanty will be seen as a disappointment for fantasy managers exiting his rookie season. It wasn’t a failure, but you can make the argument that, because of his talent and the hype, it didn’t live up to lofty expectations. Jeanty was the RB15 in fantasy points per game, finishing with 321 touches and 1,321 total yards. He ranked fifth in snap share, first in opportunity share, seventh in weighted opportunities, and 15th in red zone touches. Among 49 qualifying backs, Jeanty ranked 16th in missed tackle rate and 17th in yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). The ecosystem surrounding Jeanty stunk. The Raiders were 31st in red zone scoring attempts per game and 30th in yards per play. Among those 49 qualifying backs previously, Jeanty had the second-fewest yards before contact per attempt (1.28), and 65% of his rushing yards came after first contact. With Klint Kubiak in town, Fernando Mendoza or Kirk Cousins at the helm, a healthy Brock Bowers, and improved blocking up front, Jeanty could be poised to post a strong RB1 season in his second season.
Kenneth Walker III (KC) — ECR: RB12 | Projection Rank: RB14 | Projected FPTS: 228.6 | Diff: -2
Kenneth Walker arrives in Kansas City as the Chiefs’ new lead back. Walker had a disappointing season in 2025 from a fantasy standpoint as the RB28 in fantasy points per game, but it’s easy to see why it unfolded that way. Walker had to split the passing game usage with Zach Charbonnet, and he was shown the cold shoulder by Seattle in the red zone. Last year, Walker had a 31.9% route share versus Charbonnet’s 34.7% route share (per Fantasy Points Data). In the games that Charbonnet was active, Walker saw only 34.8% of the running back red zone rushing work (30 red zone carries versus Charbonnet’s 51). With a lucrative contract signed and delivered for Walker, I don’t see him missing out on the high usage boat in 2026. Talent isn’t the problem for Walker; it was just the way that Seattle deployed him. Last year, Walker ranked second in explosive run rate, first in missed tackle rate, ninth in yards per route run, and 12th in first downs per route run. He was a per-touch efficiency marvel. I don’t foresee him being a true bellcow with Kansas City, and I don’t want that because he has dealt with injury issues in the past. With his salivating mix of talent and efficiency, Walker should be an explosive RB1 in 2026.
Jonah Coleman (DEN) — ECR: RB54 | Projection Rank: RB85 | Projected FPTS: 28.7 | Diff: -31
Jonah Coleman walks into the Denver depth chart as the RB3 with the ability to climb the depth chart. If J.K. Dobbins is unable to stay healthy this year, Coleman could assume the early down duties opposite R.J. Harvey. If Harvey can’t continue to grow and improve after his rookie season, it wouldn’t be shocking to see Coleman hop Harvey on the depth chart and become the passing-down option for Denver. Over his last three collegiate seasons, Coleman ranked 54th, 13th, and 1st in yards after contact per attempt and 61st, sixth, and fourth in elusive rating (per PFF). In two of those three seasons, he was also top 24 in yards per route run. Coleman is a wonderful late-round dart to toss in fantasy drafts in 2026.
Emmett Johnson (KC) — ECR: RB61 | Projection Rank: RB81 | Projected FPTS: 31.9 | Diff: -20
The Chiefs selected Emmett Johnson in the fifth round of the NFL Draft. He arrives in Kansas City after a final season in college, where he ranked sixth in missed tackles forced and 52nd in yards per route run and elusive rating (per PFF). Johnson has three-down ability in the NFL after lining up in the slot or out wide with 18% of his snaps in 2025. He’s a strong handcuff who should earn the RB2 role for the team behind Kenneth Walker, in short order.
Keaton Mitchell (LAC) — ECR: RB50 | Projection Rank: RB62 | Projected FPTS: 65.0 | Diff: -12
Keaton Mitchell landed with the Chargers this offseason and should be solid competition for Kimani Vidal for the RB2 role. Mitchell flashed with the same big-play ability that he has been known for in his short career with the Ravens last season. Last season, he had only 68 touches, but he had a 10.2% explosive run rate and a respectable 1.37 yards per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). I don’t know if he’ll have a ton of bankable standalone value week-to-week with the Bolts, but he will offer some flashy big plays for Mike McDaniel’s offense when called upon in 2026. I wouldn’t be surprised if he works his way into an ancillary role as the season moves along that offers some flex value, but we’ll have to wait and see if that comes to fruition.
MarShawn Lloyd (GB) — ECR: RB62 | Projection Rank: RB73 | Projected FPTS: 39.9 | Diff: -11
My guy MarShawn Lloyd is making some noise in training camp. He has looked explosive so far and is everything that the Packers thought they were drafting. Yes, the big worry is whether he holds up as the practices and reps pile up. We still have to collectively hold our breath, but Lloyd should be inching closer and closer to the clear handcuff tier of backs for fantasy season if he can continue this charge throughout the preseason. Just to remind everyone about Lloyd’s talent. During his final two collegiate seasons, he was 20th and 16th in yards after contact per attempt, third and 18th in breakaway rate, and fourth and 15th in elusive rating (per PFF, minimum 100 carries). Take a flier on Lloyd late in drafts.
View the Best Fantasy Football Team Names
Fantasy Football Draft Rankings
Check out the consensus 2026 fantasy football draft rankings from our experts.
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio