Ellis Bryn Johnson | Fri, Aug 21st 2026, 7:29am EDT

Top 5 Riskiest Fantasy Football Draft Picks (2026)

If safety isn’t first, then what is? In fantasy football, the answer has to be either upside or volatility. The easiest way for a player to fit this description is to be returning from a significant injury. The other is whether they are touchdown or big-play merchants. In this list, we have players who fit either category, and sometimes both.

Upside wins fantasy championships is one of the most common phrases in the industry. That said, if drafted high enough, the downside can eliminate any chance at a championship.

In the end, risk is a metric that can only be judged subjectively. If you want to take the risk on these players, you have to accept that they could go one of two ways. As a result, here are my top picks for the riskiest fantasy football players of 2026.

Risky Fantasy Football Players

Malik Nabers (WR – NYG)

At the start of the offseason, this was a no-brainer selection for “riskiest player to draft.” After all, Malik Nabers could barely hobble to first base in a friendly kickball game.

That’s when we received reports that he is hoping to be back “at some point” this season. Over the last month, this narrative has completely flipped. Now, Nabers is expected to play in Week 1 and looks great in camp.

In Week 4 of last season, Nabers tore his ACL and needed a meniscus repair. Usually, receivers with major knee injuries take a season before returning to 100%. That said, there aren’t many cases of superstar talents who are 23 years old returning from major injuries. That’s where the positive reports have really turned the tables for anyone who has drafted Nabers this offseason.

If his injury isn’t the main issue, why is he considered risky? I do not trust Jaxson Dart as a passer. Last season, Dart had only one game with over 250 passing yards and seven games with one or fewer passing touchdowns. If you are a Dart defendant, your response is likely that he had no one to throw to. This definitely could have played a role. When your top pass-catchers are Wan’Dale Robinson and Darius Slayton, it’s tough to overcome.

My skepticism toward Nabers extends beyond Dart; it also goes to the coaching staff. Not only is Matt Nagy (their current offensive coordinator) one of the most mediocre hires of the offseason, but John Harbaugh-coached teams rarely have a fantasy wide receiver of note.

Over the last 10 years, the Ravens have only had four seasons with a wide receiver inside the top 24. Of those seasons, they had just one finish above WR23. That was last season, when Zay Flowers was the WR7. Over the other six seasons, they had only one wideout finish in the top 40. This sample size spans multiple quarterback and wide receiver groups, yet is a fairly alarming stretch of limited fantasy production.

The counterpoint to all of this is that Nabers truly is an elite talent. As a result, he is a risky player, but not someone to completely avoid. As his average draft position (ADP) skyrockets, fantasy managers are going to have to make the tough decision regarding their risk tolerance.

Bucky Irving (RB – TB)

There has yet to be a positive report about Bucky Irving this offseason. OK, that’s not completely true. Apparently, he looks decent in camp; however, this entire offseason has felt like the dog in the burning house meme. Instead of telling yourself “this is fine,” maybe it’s time to panic.

After missing most of last season due to injury and some off-field issues, Irving returned to a backfield that gave Sean Tucker the goal-line work. Not only did they bring Tucker back, but they also signed pass-catching specialist Kenneth Gainwell, who is coming off a career year in Pittsburgh. If Irving loses goal-line work to Tucker and passing work to Gainwell, what is his upside?

The upside is what we saw in his rookie season. After their Bye Week in Week 11 in 2024, Irving finished the last seven weeks topping 150 scrimmage yards in three games, scoring in four, and finishing as a top-10 back in four games. It was an electric end to the season, and the fifth-round selection won the hearts of many fantasy managers.

Unfortunately, a year removed, the Buccaneers have made it clear they want multiple backs involved. Thankfully, they have one of the best offensive lines in the league and could support mul tiple backs. However, if Tucker continues to take goal-line touches and Gainwell mixes in, the “between the 20s back” is not the most appealing for fantasy.

Rashee Rice (WR – KC)

I would say that we only need to worry about Rashee Rice when he is off the football field; however, his tape coming off his knee injury is very concerning. After spending 30 days in prison while recovering from a knee procedure, it’s not surprising that he does not look fully healthy.

Additionally, the football community seems to have cooled off on the Chiefs’ offense and accepted that they will lean more into the run game with Kenneth Walker III. Since Rice’s best receiving attribute is his connection to Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes, his production has seemed fragile.

Fragile or not, he has been great when on the field. Since Week 12 of his rookie season (21 games), Rice has averaged 9.3 targets and 78 yards per game. As the focal point of the offense, Rice has capitalized on his ability to gain yards after the catch.

With Xavier Worthy dealing with a shoulder injury and Travis Kelce aging, it’s hard to see anyone else taking the lead role from Rice. However, when you factor in that Rice can’t be trusted off the field, I am completely out on him for 2026. That said, you can’t argue with the upside he has displayed.

Davante Adams (WR – LAR) & Mike Evans (WR – TB)

The recipe for success for both receivers was displayed by Davante Adams last season. Despite missing three games, Adams was the WR8. He finished with 114 targets, 60 receptions, 789 yards and 14 touchdowns. The touchdowns did a lot of the heavy lifting, but when you have a receiver like Adams paired with Matthew Stafford, there is going to be some red-zone magic.

The most obvious point of contention here is that his touchdowns must regress. Interestingly, JJ Zacharison discussed that, based on his targets and usage, his expected touchdown total was also 14. As a result, he did not outproduce expectations based on usage.

Adams also saw an impressive target share, despite only recording 60 receptions. CeeDee Lamb played the same number of games and only saw three more targets than Adams. With Puka Nacua unable to stay out of the headlines for all the wrong reasons, Adams is one off-field mistake away from becoming the Rams’ top receiver.

As for Mike Evans, the situation is very similar; both teams even have a receiver with a questionable social media presence. Although Nacua is not on the same level as Brandon Aiyuk (yet), it showcases how similar these situations are.

With Evans, we don’t have the benefit of hindsight, as he is joining a new team for the first time in his career. Thankfully, he is joining the perfect offense for him. Desperate for a true outside receiver, Kyle Shanahan’s offense has dreamed of having a player like Evans.

With De’Zhaun Stribling making splashes this offseason, it is clear that Evans will be working alongside the second-round rookie. This team also has George Kittle returning from tearing his Achilles and Christian McCaffrey, who has missed the last week of practices due to “soreness.” As a result, target share should not be an issue for the veteran wideout.

Both receivers should be able to fall backward into double-digit touchdowns. With the Rams projected to score the most points in the league and the 49ers projected to score the seventh-most, the risk comes down to a number that can’t be changed: Their age.

Adams is 33 entering the season (turns 34 in December), and Evans soon turns 33. Both players have dealt with injuries in the past, and at their age, it would be surprising if they lasted the entire season. That said, we just saw Adams finish as the WR8 while missing three games. Say what you will, but these two receivers are the definition of “high risk, high reward.”

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