Brendan Tuma
Underdog Fantasy
Twitter: @toomuchtuma
Website: https://underdogfantasy.com/
Player Note on Tyler Higbee (TE - LAR)
We typically want two things from our tight end streamers. We want to play a lot, and we want them to run routes. Higbee checks the first box, coming in at an 80% snap share through eight games. Unfortunately, he's been targeted on just 15% of his routes, which is even less than Jefferson. A 4.3 ADOT isn't worth getting too excited about. For fantasy purposes, Higbee is little more than a cheap source of the Rams' offense.
Player Note on Van Jefferson (WR - LAR)
Veteran wideout DeSean Jackson was released earlier this week, which vaults Jefferson into an every-down role moving forward. The second-year receiver has only been targeted on 16% of his routes through Week 8, but his 14.0 ADOT gives him potential for big plays. It also seems as if the Rams prefer taking these shots via play-action, as Jefferson receives 26% of his looks when utilizing PA. He's a boom-bust fantasy option even with Jackson gone, but he carries low-end WR2 upside should anything happen to Kupp or Woods.
Player Note on Robert Woods (WR - LAR)
The other LA receiver has also seen his utilization profile change following Stafford's arrival. Simply put, McVay doesn't need to design as many "gimme" touches (screens, carries) for Woods, since the offense isn't reliant on manufacturing production that way. Woods' usage has therefore frustrated some fantasy managers, particularly given how well Kupp is playing these days. Nonetheless, he's seeing a 21% target share with an 8.5 ADOT entering this Titans game. The 29-year-old remains a low-end WR2, especially during busy bye weeks.
Player Note on Cooper Kupp (WR - LAR)
What else is there to say about Stafford's breakfast-eating bestie? Stafford's arrival has done wonders for Kupp's production, and he enters Week 9 as the overall WR1 in virtually any fantasy scoring system you can find. Through eight games Kupp is hogging a preposterous 32% of LA's targets while registering a 9.5 ADOT. Additionally, he has been targeted on 32% of his routes with a 39% air yards share of the offense. Kupp is running hot in the TD department (10 in eight games feels unsustainable, even by his standards). Regardless, he will continue seeing opportunities as he's currently being targeted on 30% of the Rams' end zone targets. Nothing about the Titans' defensive profile should have you shying away from Kupp's elite floor/ceiling.
Player Note on Julio Jones (WR - TEN)
The 32-year-old has played in just 5-of-8 games this year while topping 60 receiving yards just once. His yards per route run (2.35) and ADOT (13.7) are in line with his career figures, but we just can't rely on his health anymore. Jones is no sure thing to play on Sunday night against the Rams. We simply need to see more before we can trust him again.
Player Note on A.J. Brown (WR - TEN)
As mentioned in the Tannehill section, we don't technically know how the Titans will operate without Henry, but what's clear is they need to keep utilizing play-action. In Weeks 1-4 Tannehill used PA on just 25% of his throws, which was down from 36% in 2020. From Weeks 5-8 this number has spiked to 34.7%. Curiously, Tannehill ranks first in the NFL in EPA per play during this time. No receiver in the league is targeted more on PA than AJB, who checks in at 44%. The concept has helped turn around Brown's season following a slow start. Regardless of what happens to Tennessee's offense, we need them to keep deploying this strategy.
Player Note on Jeremy McNichols (RB - TEN)
He has gotten some run on third downs this year and will likely be the team's pass-catching back for the rest of the season. Darrynton Evans is out for the year, so McNichols should see as much work through the air as he can handle, especially until Peterson gets up to speed. McNichols will likely be more involved on the ground over the next week or two than he will be down the stretch, which combined with his pass-catching role makes him the superior play over AP in the short term. The potential for trailing game script against the Rams makes him a worthwhile FLEX option in full-PPR formats.
Player Note on Adrian Peterson (RB - TEN)
Arguably the best running back of his generation is back for his age-36 campaign. Miraculously, Peterson wasn't toast in his 2020 stint with the Lions, playing in all 16 games and rushing for 604 yards and seven touchdowns. He might take some time to get acclimated to Tennessee's offense, but it's no secret that his running style aligns with that of Henry. Rational coaching leads us to believe that the Titans will shift to the pass a bit more, but Peterson will be the bruising option when the team wants to run the ball. Temper expectations early on, but the late-season schedule is something to keep in mind when it comes to potential trades. Peterson draws plus spots in Week 11 (vs Texans), Week 14 (vs Jaguars), and Week 17 (vs Dolphins). He's on the RB2/3 borderline the rest of the way.
Player Note on Sony Michel (RB - LAR)
We had no idea the Rams felt comfortable using Henderson this much. Immediately following the trade from the Patriots, it seemed likely that Michel would split time with him, even if Henderson wound up being the team's "1A." Alas, Michel is only ever on the field when the former needs a blow or the game is out of reach. The fact that Michel was given 24 opportunities (carries + targets) in the one game Henderson missed this year makes him one of the more valuable handcuffs in the league.
Player Note on Darrell Henderson Jr. (RB - LAR)
Tennessee's defense is about equal in terms of EPA per play when defending both the run (20th) and the pass (19th). Los Angeles prefers to throw the ball to build leads, but the 7-1 Rams are no stranger to this, playing with leads and eventually turning to the run. Henderson's utilization and offensive environment are both fantastic. When the game is close and Henderson is at full health he basically never leaves the field. His seven scores in seven games also feels sustainable given how often the Rams play in the red zone. Overall, Hendo's profile is that of a matchup-proof, top-five fantasy running back.
Player Note on Tyler Higbee (TE - LAR)
We typically want two things from our tight end streamers. We want to play a lot, and we want them to run routes. Higbee checks the first box, coming in at an 80% snap share through eight games. Unfortunately, he's been targeted on just 15% of his routes, which is even less than Jefferson. A 4.3 ADOT isn't worth getting too excited about. For fantasy purposes, Higbee is little more than a cheap source of the Rams' offense.
Player Note on Van Jefferson (WR - LAR)
Veteran wideout DeSean Jackson was released earlier this week, which vaults Jefferson into an every-down role moving forward. The second-year receiver has only been targeted on 16% of his routes through Week 8, but his 14.0 ADOT gives him potential for big plays. It also seems as if the Rams prefer taking these shots via play-action, as Jefferson receives 26% of his looks when utilizing PA. He's a boom-bust fantasy option even with Jackson gone, but he carries low-end WR2 upside should anything happen to Kupp or Woods.
Player Note on Robert Woods (WR - LAR)
The other LA receiver has also seen his utilization profile change following Stafford's arrival. Simply put, McVay doesn't need to design as many "gimme" touches (screens, carries) for Woods, since the offense isn't reliant on manufacturing production that way. Woods' usage has therefore frustrated some fantasy managers, particularly given how well Kupp is playing these days. Nonetheless, he's seeing a 21% target share with an 8.5 ADOT entering this Titans game. The 29-year-old remains a low-end WR2, especially during busy bye weeks.
Player Note on Cooper Kupp (WR - LAR)
What else is there to say about Stafford's breakfast-eating bestie? Stafford's arrival has done wonders for Kupp's production, and he enters Week 9 as the overall WR1 in virtually any fantasy scoring system you can find. Through eight games Kupp is hogging a preposterous 32% of LA's targets while registering a 9.5 ADOT. Additionally, he has been targeted on 32% of his routes with a 39% air yards share of the offense. Kupp is running hot in the TD department (10 in eight games feels unsustainable, even by his standards). Regardless, he will continue seeing opportunities as he's currently being targeted on 30% of the Rams' end zone targets. Nothing about the Titans' defensive profile should have you shying away from Kupp's elite floor/ceiling.
Player Note on Julio Jones (WR - TEN)
The 32-year-old has played in just 5-of-8 games this year while topping 60 receiving yards just once. His yards per route run (2.35) and ADOT (13.7) are in line with his career figures, but we just can't rely on his health anymore. Jones is no sure thing to play on Sunday night against the Rams. We simply need to see more before we can trust him again.
Player Note on A.J. Brown (WR - TEN)
As mentioned in the Tannehill section, we don't technically know how the Titans will operate without Henry, but what's clear is they need to keep utilizing play-action. In Weeks 1-4 Tannehill used PA on just 25% of his throws, which was down from 36% in 2020. From Weeks 5-8 this number has spiked to 34.7%. Curiously, Tannehill ranks first in the NFL in EPA per play during this time. No receiver in the league is targeted more on PA than AJB, who checks in at 44%. The concept has helped turn around Brown's season following a slow start. Regardless of what happens to Tennessee's offense, we need them to keep deploying this strategy.
Player Note on Jeremy McNichols (RB - TEN)
He has gotten some run on third downs this year and will likely be the team's pass-catching back for the rest of the season. Darrynton Evans is out for the year, so McNichols should see as much work through the air as he can handle, especially until Peterson gets up to speed. McNichols will likely be more involved on the ground over the next week or two than he will be down the stretch, which combined with his pass-catching role makes him the superior play over AP in the short term. The potential for trailing game script against the Rams makes him a worthwhile FLEX option in full-PPR formats.
Player Note on Adrian Peterson (RB - TEN)
Arguably the best running back of his generation is back for his age-36 campaign. Miraculously, Peterson wasn't toast in his 2020 stint with the Lions, playing in all 16 games and rushing for 604 yards and seven touchdowns. He might take some time to get acclimated to Tennessee's offense, but it's no secret that his running style aligns with that of Henry. Rational coaching leads us to believe that the Titans will shift to the pass a bit more, but Peterson will be the bruising option when the team wants to run the ball. Temper expectations early on, but the late-season schedule is something to keep in mind when it comes to potential trades. Peterson draws plus spots in Week 11 (vs Texans), Week 14 (vs Jaguars), and Week 17 (vs Dolphins). He's on the RB2/3 borderline the rest of the way.
Player Note on Sony Michel (RB - LAR)
We had no idea the Rams felt comfortable using Henderson this much. Immediately following the trade from the Patriots, it seemed likely that Michel would split time with him, even if Henderson wound up being the team's "1A." Alas, Michel is only ever on the field when the former needs a blow or the game is out of reach. The fact that Michel was given 24 opportunities (carries + targets) in the one game Henderson missed this year makes him one of the more valuable handcuffs in the league.
Player Note on Darrell Henderson Jr. (RB - LAR)
Tennessee's defense is about equal in terms of EPA per play when defending both the run (20th) and the pass (19th). Los Angeles prefers to throw the ball to build leads, but the 7-1 Rams are no stranger to this, playing with leads and eventually turning to the run. Henderson's utilization and offensive environment are both fantastic. When the game is close and Henderson is at full health he basically never leaves the field. His seven scores in seven games also feels sustainable given how often the Rams play in the red zone. Overall, Hendo's profile is that of a matchup-proof, top-five fantasy running back.
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