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Jennifer Smith

The Fantasy Authority
Start/Sit Week 15
Thu, Dec 14
Start/Sit Week 15
Give us a player (non tight end) outside of our top 100 Flex that represents a deep sleeper start and tell us why you think he has upside this week.
I like Tarik Cohen's sleeper potential this week. Though we've all scratched our heads at his usage throughout this season, the last two weeks his snap count increased from 39% to 51%. In Week 15, Cohen received his most touches since Week 6 (14) and converted 12 carries for 80 yards and two catches for five yards. He almost had a touchdown but it got called back for him stepping out of bounds. Cohen faces Detroit this week, who give up the 4th most fantasy points to RBs this season. They've given up at least one TD to the running back position in EVERY game except Week 2. Cohen's big-play ability gives you plenty of upside, but he of course also presents a dangerously low floor should Chicago revert to limiting his touches.

On the flip side, what player inside the top 40 Flex is likely to disappoint fantasy owners this week?
The definition of boom-or-bust this season, Tyreek Hill (and Alex Smith) will disappoint fantasy owners this week. The LA Chargers defense is legit, allowing the sixth lowest fantasy points to the wide receiver position in 2017. They play at Arrowhead, which helps some; however, the Chargers haven't given up a TD to a wide receiver since Week 10 and gave up zero 100+ yard receiving performances so far this season. Hill performed well against them in Week 3, catching five for 77 and a TD. But we all know this offense sputtered since mid-season and are struggling to get any momentum/consistency back. His speed and talent make his upside ever-present, but you're hoping for a big play and TD to get you your value back at his WR14 (#38 Flex) ranking. FYI, Hill received just three total red zone targets this year, so temper expectations in Week 15.

Eli Manning (QB - NYG) - Eli Manning benched, Geno Smith to start Week 13
Thu, Nov 30
With one week left of the fantasy regular season and playoffs looming, this is a hard break for Engram, Darkwa, and Shepard owners. Geno Smith under center certainly downgrades everyone and we could even see rookie Davis Webb get snaps. Being against a porous Oakland Raiders lessens the sting a bit, but I would steer clear of all Giants if possible. Wayne Gallman out snapped Orleans Darkwa in Week 12, so the Giants clearly want looks at all their rookies. I can't confidently start any of them.
Start/Sit Week 13
Thu, Nov 30
Start/Sit Week 13
Give us a player (non tight end) outside of our top 100 Flex that represents a deep sleeper start and tell us why you think he has upside this week.
My pick is Dede Westbrook, currently ranked as FantasyPros #110 flex player for Week 13. With Allen Hurns set to miss another week, Westbrook represents a deeper play that led the Jags in targets (10) last week. Patrick Peterson covered Marquise Lee in Week 12, most likely contributing to the increase in targets for Westbrook. However, Westbrook earned six targets in Week 11 and his snap count increased in Week 12. Between the targets and the snap count, clearly the Jags are looking to get him more involved. The Jags draw the Indianapolis Colts this week, who rank #28 in pass defense DVOA according to Football Outsiders. Westbrook's play making ability and speed give him plenty of upside, even if his targets bump down a bit. He could be a sleeper for fantasy owners in Week 13.

On the flip side, what player inside the top 40 Flex is likely to disappoint fantasy owners this week?
Joe Mixon will disappoint fantasy owners this week, especially if they expect a replay of his performance (or the Steelers defensive performance) from last week. Prior to Week 12, Mixon rushed for fewer than 50 yards the last five games and scored just four touchdowns so far this season. In addition, he topped 50 yards receiving just twice (including Week 12) and caught zero touchdown passes through the air. That amount to more than 10 standard fantasy points just three times in 2017. Pittsburgh rush defense ranks #7 in DVOA and prior to last week's mess of broken coverage, they hadn't given up a rushing TD since Week 5. They also hadn't given up a receiving touchdown to a running back all season until Jamaal Williams. Recency effect on both sides of this contest might lead owners to expect a big game from Mixon. However, expecting a #23 flex fantasy finish is unrealistic. I see the bout ending similar to when they faced each other in Week 7 in which Mixon walked away with below ten fantasy points, in both standard and PPR.

Darren McFadden (RB - FA) - Darren McFadden retires
Wed, Nov 29
News Reaction on Darren McFadden (RB - FA) - Darren McFadden retires
This doesn't come as much of a surprise after McFadden was a healthy scratch for the majority of the season, seeing just one snap in Week 10. The Cowboys plan to continue to use Alfred Morris and Rod Smith in the backfield. Rod Smith actually out-snapped Morris in Week 12, so game script and usage definitely is something to be monitored. Even with McFadden out of the mix, fantasy owners still have a RBBC (and a struggling offense) to decipher.
Eddie Lacy (RB - FA) - Eddie Lacy gets season-high in carries
Mon, Nov 27
With Matt Davis set to return in Week 13, I wouldn't invest a bench spot in Eddie Lacy. In Week 11, Davis out snapped Lacy before he exited with a groin injury. Seattle involved Davis in both the early and passing downs and I think they will give him another opportunity once healthy. JD McKissic should see passing down work as well, relegating Eddie Lacy (9% of the snap count when Davis active) and Thomas Rawls (healthy scratch when Davis active) to the bench.
Doug Martin (RB - OAK) - Doug Martin leaves loss to Atlanta with concussion
Mon, Nov 27
Running for his best YPC since Week 6 (4.7), Martin gained 33 yards on seven carries before exiting with the injury. Jacquizz Rodgers took over for early downs (8 carries for 31 yards), but Peyton Barber received the red zone carries (two TDs on five carries). If Martin misses time, I expect Jacquizz to get the starting nod here, with Barber sprinkled in, and Charles Sims getting his usual 3-4 touches per game. During Martin's suspension weeks 2-4, Rodgers performed solidly.
Michael Crabtree (WR - BAL) - Michael Crabtree gets ejected in game against the Broncos
Mon, Nov 27
Crabtree's ejection put the Oakland Raiders in a difficult position, as he represents 17% of their overall target share and plays at least 80% of snaps each week. He most likely won't be suspended for further games, as past precedent (AJ Green/Jalen Ramsey ejected but returned the next week) appears to indicate. Amari Cooper (concussion) also left the game early, leaving Carr to spread passes around. Seth Roberts and Cordarrelle Patterson received the largest bump in snap count.
Devonta Freeman (RB - ATL) - Devonta Freeman RULED OUT Week 12
Sun, Nov 26
Tevin Coleman gains the most fantasy impacts from news of Devonta Freeman being out again this week. In the games Freeman missed, Coleman received 21 touches. This week, Coleman draws a tasty matchup versus Tampa Bay. The Bucs defense gave up 100+ rushing yards in six games so far this season and eight rushing TDs. Terron Ward becomes a bench stash in deeper fantasy leagues. However, Freeman completed limited practices this week and should pass protocol before Week 13 tilt against Minnesota.
JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR - PIT) - JuJu Smith-Schuster RULED OUT for Week 12
Sun, Nov 26
With Smith-Shuster's absence, comes opportunity for Martavis Bryant. JuJu represents 14.75% of total target share and 21% of red zone target share. He played 97% of snaps last week, compared to Bryant's 65%.The Steelers need Bryant to step up against a Green Bay defense that gives up the eighth most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. They surrendered at least one touchdown to wide receivers their last four games. Look for a big day for AB and increased targets for Bryant and Eli Rogers.
Nothing found for Notes
Eli Manning (QB - NYG) - Eli Manning benched, Geno Smith to start Week 13
Thu, Nov 30
With one week left of the fantasy regular season and playoffs looming, this is a hard break for Engram, Darkwa, and Shepard owners. Geno Smith under center certainly downgrades everyone and we could even see rookie Davis Webb get snaps. Being against a porous Oakland Raiders lessens the sting a bit, but I would steer clear of all Giants if possible. Wayne Gallman out snapped Orleans Darkwa in Week 12, so the Giants clearly want looks at all their rookies. I can't confidently start any of them.
Darren McFadden (RB - FA) - Darren McFadden retires
Wed, Nov 29
News Reaction on Darren McFadden (RB - FA) - Darren McFadden retires
This doesn't come as much of a surprise after McFadden was a healthy scratch for the majority of the season, seeing just one snap in Week 10. The Cowboys plan to continue to use Alfred Morris and Rod Smith in the backfield. Rod Smith actually out-snapped Morris in Week 12, so game script and usage definitely is something to be monitored. Even with McFadden out of the mix, fantasy owners still have a RBBC (and a struggling offense) to decipher.
Eddie Lacy (RB - FA) - Eddie Lacy gets season-high in carries
Mon, Nov 27
With Matt Davis set to return in Week 13, I wouldn't invest a bench spot in Eddie Lacy. In Week 11, Davis out snapped Lacy before he exited with a groin injury. Seattle involved Davis in both the early and passing downs and I think they will give him another opportunity once healthy. JD McKissic should see passing down work as well, relegating Eddie Lacy (9% of the snap count when Davis active) and Thomas Rawls (healthy scratch when Davis active) to the bench.
Doug Martin (RB - OAK) - Doug Martin leaves loss to Atlanta with concussion
Mon, Nov 27
Running for his best YPC since Week 6 (4.7), Martin gained 33 yards on seven carries before exiting with the injury. Jacquizz Rodgers took over for early downs (8 carries for 31 yards), but Peyton Barber received the red zone carries (two TDs on five carries). If Martin misses time, I expect Jacquizz to get the starting nod here, with Barber sprinkled in, and Charles Sims getting his usual 3-4 touches per game. During Martin's suspension weeks 2-4, Rodgers performed solidly.
Michael Crabtree (WR - BAL) - Michael Crabtree gets ejected in game against the Broncos
Mon, Nov 27
Crabtree's ejection put the Oakland Raiders in a difficult position, as he represents 17% of their overall target share and plays at least 80% of snaps each week. He most likely won't be suspended for further games, as past precedent (AJ Green/Jalen Ramsey ejected but returned the next week) appears to indicate. Amari Cooper (concussion) also left the game early, leaving Carr to spread passes around. Seth Roberts and Cordarrelle Patterson received the largest bump in snap count.
Devonta Freeman (RB - ATL) - Devonta Freeman RULED OUT Week 12
Sun, Nov 26
Tevin Coleman gains the most fantasy impacts from news of Devonta Freeman being out again this week. In the games Freeman missed, Coleman received 21 touches. This week, Coleman draws a tasty matchup versus Tampa Bay. The Bucs defense gave up 100+ rushing yards in six games so far this season and eight rushing TDs. Terron Ward becomes a bench stash in deeper fantasy leagues. However, Freeman completed limited practices this week and should pass protocol before Week 13 tilt against Minnesota.
JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR - PIT) - JuJu Smith-Schuster RULED OUT for Week 12
Sun, Nov 26
With Smith-Shuster's absence, comes opportunity for Martavis Bryant. JuJu represents 14.75% of total target share and 21% of red zone target share. He played 97% of snaps last week, compared to Bryant's 65%.The Steelers need Bryant to step up against a Green Bay defense that gives up the eighth most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. They surrendered at least one touchdown to wide receivers their last four games. Look for a big day for AB and increased targets for Bryant and Eli Rogers.

Go to the Fantasy Accuracy Reports to see how this expert stacks up.