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Tim Brosnan

Tim's Fantasy Tips
Stephen Gostkowski (K - TEN)
Sun, Nov 22
Player Note on Stephen Gostkowski (K - TEN)
Oh, how the mighty have fallen. Remember before this season, when Gostkowski was the single most accurate kicker of all-time? Yeah, me neither. In the past five weeks, Gostkowski has managed to miss five of his eight FG attempts. I mean, what happened to this guy? Clearly, he's not what he used to be. Which is just one reason why I can't trust him to overcome this difficult matchup with the Ravens, who allow the least fantasy points to kickers this season.
Matt Prater (K - DET)
Sun, Nov 22
Player Note on Matt Prater (K - DET)
With three or more FG attempts in six of nine games this season, and four of his last five, Prater sets up nicely in week eleven versus a Panthers team surrendering an average of 10.0 PPG to opposing kickers (fourth-most).
Indianapolis Colts (DST - IND)
Sun, Nov 22
Player Note on Indianapolis Colts (DST - IND)
The Colts are a wall on defense. There is no denying that. Through ten weeks, they have established themselves as (subjectively speaking) the best defense in the NFL. They have finished with less than six fantasy points just once, and have more games with double-digit points than games without. And yet, it's hard to advocate for them against Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers. Green Bay allows an average of 2.1 points to opposing D/ST's this season, and if you remove an outlier 20-point performance by the Bucs, a grand total of -1.0 fantasy points has been scored by every D/ST (combined) they've come across this season. Indy is projected a modest 5.5 points this week, and while their floor is probably safer than the average D/ST, I'd look for upside elsewhere.
Miami Dolphins (DST - MIA)
Sun, Nov 22
Player Note on Miami Dolphins (DST - MIA)
Since week three, Miami is allowing an average of just 18.5 PPG to opposing offenses, they have eight interceptions and five forced fumbles in that span, as well as double-digit fantasy points in four of those seven games. All that, AND they get a matchup with Denver this week, the team with the most interceptions thrown (16), allowing the most fantasy PPG to opposing D/ST's this season (according to NFL.com). There is a chance Drew Lock is forced to miss this game with a rib injury, which would make the Dolphins an even more appealing play this week, but even if Lock does play (he threw four INT's last week) Miami is still an excellent plug-and-play for week 11.
Mike Evans (WR - TB)
Sun, Nov 22
Player Note on Mike Evans (WR - TB)
Evans has been automatic in the red-zone this season. He is currently tied for second in the NFL with eight receiving TD's. Yet, he is just WR16 in PPR scoring. Forget the fact that with Chris Godwin, Gronk and now Antonio Brown in the lineup, Evans isn't receiving a plethora of attention. Forget the fact he hasn't had 100+ yards or seven catches in a game since week four. The reason he is ranked outside the top-25 is because in week eleven, Evans will more than likely draw shadow coverage from Jalen Ramsey. Ramsey has already successfully locked up DK Metcalf (two catches for 28 yards) Devante Parker (one catch for three yards), Terry McLaurin (three catches for 26 yards), and Stefon Diggs (four catches for 49 yards) this season. Ramsey is just behind Xavien Howard in games with zero yards allowed in coverage this season. Which is probably the reason why the Rams have allowed the least receiving TD's and fantasy PPG to WR's in 2020. An ESPN projection of 12.8 points is going to be a long shot to beat this week.
Justin Jefferson (WR - MIN)
Sun, Nov 22
Player Note on Justin Jefferson (WR - MIN)
Jefferson has now played in nine games this season. According to ProFootballFocus, he's been the highest graded WR in four of them. As in, the highest graded WR in the entire NFL. Four times. As a rookie... After dominating a Chicago defense (previously giving up the fewest fantasy PPG to opposing WR's) for eight catches and 135 yards (his third game this season with 7+ catches, 130+ yards and 21+ fantasy points) he gets a matchup with a Dallas secondary that, even after a bye, has (still) allowed the most WR TD's this season (five in their last three games). The fact he's projected only 12.7 points by ESPN this week just feels disrespectful.
Ryan Tannehill (QB - TEN)
Sun, Nov 22
Player Note on Ryan Tannehill (QB - TEN)
I'm SURE putting him here will have sort of reverse psychology effect. I'll point out how he hasn't thrown for more than 233 yards since week six, or how he hasn't topped 17.3 points since then either. I'll point out how he's averaged only 153 passing yards and just 12.5 fantasy PPG over the last two weeks, and has only a single rushing TD this season. Then, he'll come out and have the game of his life (probably four total TD's) against a Ravens defense allowing the tenth-least fantasy PPG, and just 1.2 passing TD's per game to QB's this season. But I don't care. I'm sitting him anyways.
Cam Newton (QB - NE)
Sun, Nov 22
Player Note on Cam Newton (QB - NE)
Some may be hesitant about this one, which is well within reason. Through eight games, Cam has thrown just three TD's as opposed to seven INT's. It hasn't been pretty. BUT... I'm not putting him here because I expect he has a big game through the air. I'm putting him here because this matchup appeals to what he does best: run the football. Newton may be having an abysmal season through the air, but on the ground he's actually on pace to have the most rushing TD's of his career (nine so far this season). In week eleven, he'll be matched up with a Texans team surrendering the most rushing yards in the NFL (an AVG of 167.4 PG). The Pats are going to run, run, and run some more this week. Expect Newton to find the end-zone more than once, and beat his ESPN projection of 19.2.
Jonathan Taylor (RB - IND)
Sun, Nov 22
Player Note on Jonathan Taylor (RB - IND)
Yes, the matchup is great. Yes, the Packers rush defense stinks and allows the second-most fantasy points AND total TD's to RB's this season. No, that does not mean you should play him. Taylor has not rushed for more than 27 yards in his last three games, and has less than ten touches two games in a row. These three games have included excellent fantasy matchups for an RB like Detroit and Tennessee (kind of like this matchup with Green Bay), and yet, he's been out-snapped and out touched by both Nyheim Hines AND Jordan Wilkins during this span. Based off the most recent sample we have, it's hard to trust Taylor this week.
Mike Davis (RB - CAR)
Sun, Nov 22
Player Note on Mike Davis (RB - CAR)
After beginning his tenure as the starting RB with three consecutive games of 22+ PPR points, Davis has been ice cold. He has scored just over 8.2 points but no more than 8.7 in each of his past four games. Still, I think he gets back on track this weekend. Whether it's Teddy Bridgewater or P.J. Walker under center for the Panthers, expect the Panthers to lean on Davis heavily against a Lions team that has given up the most total TD's to RB's this season (18). That statement was true last week, even before Antonio Gibson and J.D. Mckissic combined for three TD's against them. It is no surprise the allow the most fantasy points to RB's in 2020, and Davis likely won't be an exception.
Stephen Gostkowski (K - TEN)
Sun, Nov 22
Player Note on Stephen Gostkowski (K - TEN)
Oh, how the mighty have fallen. Remember before this season, when Gostkowski was the single most accurate kicker of all-time? Yeah, me neither. In the past five weeks, Gostkowski has managed to miss five of his eight FG attempts. I mean, what happened to this guy? Clearly, he's not what he used to be. Which is just one reason why I can't trust him to overcome this difficult matchup with the Ravens, who allow the least fantasy points to kickers this season.
Matt Prater (K - DET)
Sun, Nov 22
Player Note on Matt Prater (K - DET)
With three or more FG attempts in six of nine games this season, and four of his last five, Prater sets up nicely in week eleven versus a Panthers team surrendering an average of 10.0 PPG to opposing kickers (fourth-most).
Indianapolis Colts (DST - IND)
Sun, Nov 22
Player Note on Indianapolis Colts (DST - IND)
The Colts are a wall on defense. There is no denying that. Through ten weeks, they have established themselves as (subjectively speaking) the best defense in the NFL. They have finished with less than six fantasy points just once, and have more games with double-digit points than games without. And yet, it's hard to advocate for them against Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers. Green Bay allows an average of 2.1 points to opposing D/ST's this season, and if you remove an outlier 20-point performance by the Bucs, a grand total of -1.0 fantasy points has been scored by every D/ST (combined) they've come across this season. Indy is projected a modest 5.5 points this week, and while their floor is probably safer than the average D/ST, I'd look for upside elsewhere.
Miami Dolphins (DST - MIA)
Sun, Nov 22
Player Note on Miami Dolphins (DST - MIA)
Since week three, Miami is allowing an average of just 18.5 PPG to opposing offenses, they have eight interceptions and five forced fumbles in that span, as well as double-digit fantasy points in four of those seven games. All that, AND they get a matchup with Denver this week, the team with the most interceptions thrown (16), allowing the most fantasy PPG to opposing D/ST's this season (according to NFL.com). There is a chance Drew Lock is forced to miss this game with a rib injury, which would make the Dolphins an even more appealing play this week, but even if Lock does play (he threw four INT's last week) Miami is still an excellent plug-and-play for week 11.
Mike Evans (WR - TB)
Sun, Nov 22
Player Note on Mike Evans (WR - TB)
Evans has been automatic in the red-zone this season. He is currently tied for second in the NFL with eight receiving TD's. Yet, he is just WR16 in PPR scoring. Forget the fact that with Chris Godwin, Gronk and now Antonio Brown in the lineup, Evans isn't receiving a plethora of attention. Forget the fact he hasn't had 100+ yards or seven catches in a game since week four. The reason he is ranked outside the top-25 is because in week eleven, Evans will more than likely draw shadow coverage from Jalen Ramsey. Ramsey has already successfully locked up DK Metcalf (two catches for 28 yards) Devante Parker (one catch for three yards), Terry McLaurin (three catches for 26 yards), and Stefon Diggs (four catches for 49 yards) this season. Ramsey is just behind Xavien Howard in games with zero yards allowed in coverage this season. Which is probably the reason why the Rams have allowed the least receiving TD's and fantasy PPG to WR's in 2020. An ESPN projection of 12.8 points is going to be a long shot to beat this week.
Justin Jefferson (WR - MIN)
Sun, Nov 22
Player Note on Justin Jefferson (WR - MIN)
Jefferson has now played in nine games this season. According to ProFootballFocus, he's been the highest graded WR in four of them. As in, the highest graded WR in the entire NFL. Four times. As a rookie... After dominating a Chicago defense (previously giving up the fewest fantasy PPG to opposing WR's) for eight catches and 135 yards (his third game this season with 7+ catches, 130+ yards and 21+ fantasy points) he gets a matchup with a Dallas secondary that, even after a bye, has (still) allowed the most WR TD's this season (five in their last three games). The fact he's projected only 12.7 points by ESPN this week just feels disrespectful.
Ryan Tannehill (QB - TEN)
Sun, Nov 22
Player Note on Ryan Tannehill (QB - TEN)
I'm SURE putting him here will have sort of reverse psychology effect. I'll point out how he hasn't thrown for more than 233 yards since week six, or how he hasn't topped 17.3 points since then either. I'll point out how he's averaged only 153 passing yards and just 12.5 fantasy PPG over the last two weeks, and has only a single rushing TD this season. Then, he'll come out and have the game of his life (probably four total TD's) against a Ravens defense allowing the tenth-least fantasy PPG, and just 1.2 passing TD's per game to QB's this season. But I don't care. I'm sitting him anyways.
Cam Newton (QB - NE)
Sun, Nov 22
Player Note on Cam Newton (QB - NE)
Some may be hesitant about this one, which is well within reason. Through eight games, Cam has thrown just three TD's as opposed to seven INT's. It hasn't been pretty. BUT... I'm not putting him here because I expect he has a big game through the air. I'm putting him here because this matchup appeals to what he does best: run the football. Newton may be having an abysmal season through the air, but on the ground he's actually on pace to have the most rushing TD's of his career (nine so far this season). In week eleven, he'll be matched up with a Texans team surrendering the most rushing yards in the NFL (an AVG of 167.4 PG). The Pats are going to run, run, and run some more this week. Expect Newton to find the end-zone more than once, and beat his ESPN projection of 19.2.
Jonathan Taylor (RB - IND)
Sun, Nov 22
Player Note on Jonathan Taylor (RB - IND)
Yes, the matchup is great. Yes, the Packers rush defense stinks and allows the second-most fantasy points AND total TD's to RB's this season. No, that does not mean you should play him. Taylor has not rushed for more than 27 yards in his last three games, and has less than ten touches two games in a row. These three games have included excellent fantasy matchups for an RB like Detroit and Tennessee (kind of like this matchup with Green Bay), and yet, he's been out-snapped and out touched by both Nyheim Hines AND Jordan Wilkins during this span. Based off the most recent sample we have, it's hard to trust Taylor this week.
Mike Davis (RB - CAR)
Sun, Nov 22
Player Note on Mike Davis (RB - CAR)
After beginning his tenure as the starting RB with three consecutive games of 22+ PPR points, Davis has been ice cold. He has scored just over 8.2 points but no more than 8.7 in each of his past four games. Still, I think he gets back on track this weekend. Whether it's Teddy Bridgewater or P.J. Walker under center for the Panthers, expect the Panthers to lean on Davis heavily against a Lions team that has given up the most total TD's to RB's this season (18). That statement was true last week, even before Antonio Gibson and J.D. Mckissic combined for three TD's against them. It is no surprise the allow the most fantasy points to RB's in 2020, and Davis likely won't be an exception.
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